Yes, we are more than 6 months out from the 2012 GOP presidential primary, but today’s Gallup survey (published May 9) indicates a major quandry for Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters. The mainstream media may eye the current 2012 GOP field with a hint of disdain, because in their opinion it lacks enthusiasm. We see a bigger problem: regional and ideological divisons.
Should Mike Huckabee enter the 2012 GOP fray, he is, at this juncture, the clear favorite among GOP and Republican-leaning independent voters in the South (24%) and Midwest (20%). Among self-identified “Conservative” Republican and GOP-leaning independent voters, Huckabee checks in at 21%.
Mitt Romney, on the other hand, is strongly favored by GOP and Republican-leaning independent voters in the East (20%) and West (20%). Among self-identified “Liberal-Moderate” GOP and Republican-leaning voters, Romney punches in at 17%.
If Huckabee does formally announce for the 2012 race, we do not see these primary divisions diminishing anytime soon.
Here’s how Gallup sees the race breaking down by geography:
- Ford & Steve