The GOP’s 2012 Mitt Ruckabee Problem

Yes, we are more than 6 months out from the 2012 GOP presidential primary, but today’s Gallup survey (published May 9) indicates a major quandry for Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters.  The mainstream media may eye the current 2012 GOP field with a hint of disdain, because in their opinion it lacks enthusiasm.  We see a bigger problem: regional and ideological divisons.

Should Mike Huckabee enter the 2012 GOP fray, he is, at this juncture, the clear favorite among GOP and Republican-leaning independent voters in the South (24%) and Midwest (20%).  Among self-identified “Conservative” Republican and GOP-leaning independent voters, Huckabee checks in at 21%.

Mitt Romney, on the other hand, is strongly favored by GOP and Republican-leaning independent voters in the East (20%) and West (20%). Among self-identified “Liberal-Moderate” GOP and Republican-leaning voters, Romney punches in at 17%.

If Huckabee does formally announce for the 2012 race, we do not see these primary divisions diminishing anytime soon.

Here’s how Gallup sees the race breaking down by geography:

2012 GOP Presidential Trial Heat -- Preferred Candidate by Ideology, Region

- Ford & Steve


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