Bernie 2020 Has Democrats Petrified
Don’t look now, but Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is rising in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary polls and is once again drawing both large crowds at campaign stops and Bernie Bros back to their keyboards.
And just like in 2016, Sanders is already giving many Democrats and their allies heartburn.
Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.) recently said Sanders should not be allowed to run for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, because “[h]e’s not a Democrat.”
When asked why Sanders won’t refer to Venezuelan strongman Nicholas Maduro as “a dictator” or take a position on whether the socialist dictator must go, Rep. Donna Shalala (D-Fla.) insinuated that it just doesn’t really matter because Sanders “is not going to be the nominee of the Democratic Party.”
And then there are the former staffers of 2016 Democratic Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton who claim that Sanders was far from a team player when he lost the nomination. Worse, they suggest he is a diva who relishes “carbon-spewing private jet” travel. Not exactly a good look for a candidate who is constantly barking about climate change and the size of America’s carbon footprint.
There is no doubt the heated rift over Sanders is reopening old wounds. The prize thus far for Sanders furor goes to The Intercept’s Glenn Greenwald who in defense of Sanders called MSNBC “a dishonest political operation, not a news outlet” for its allegedly slanted coverage of Sanders’ first 2020 campaign rally in Brooklyn, New York.
Taken as a whole, the message from institutional Democrats and their allies in the media is simple: Just please go away, Bernie.
Midwest Battleground States Tap Candidates For Midterm Elections
Voters chose nominees on Tuesday in the key battleground states of Wisconsin and Minnesota, setting up what are expected to be tight races as November’s congressional elections draw near.
Wisconsin Republicans tapped state senator Leah Vukmir to battle incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin, according to an Associated Press projection, after a bruising primary that could hamper her chances in November.
That state helped drive Republican Donald Trump’s surprising presidential win two years ago and turnout there and in neighboring Minnesota could serve as a barometer of Democratic strength headed into the midterm elections.
Trump Breaks With GOP, Sparking New Tensions
President Trump is publicly breaking with congressional Republicans on trade and guns, causing tensions within the party at a time when lawmakers hope to be united ahead of the midterm elections.
Republican strategists and nonpartisan political experts say Trump appears to be looking beyond this fall’s elections, when GOP control of Congress is at stake, to his own bid for a second term in 2020.
The announcement on Thursday of the tariffs, which have yet to formally be put in place, came shortly after Trump said that Brad Parscale, his longtime digital marketing strategist, would be his 2020 reelection campaign manager.
While there have been no significant polls on the tariffs so far, Trump’s populist positions on trade were popular in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin, states that sealed his victory over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016.
“He’s fighting for the industrial Midwest, which is essentially the key for him to win reelection, and this is obviously something where he is putting their interests first while everyone else is pooh-poohing the idea of fighting for the American worker,” said Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist who worked on Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) 2008 presidential campaign.
Trump Does Damage Control In Final Pitch To Wisconsin Voters
If Donald Trump is worried about finishing second in Wisconsin's presidential primary, he's refusing to let his supporters catch on.
The Republican front-runner arrived in the Badger State Monday for a triple-hitter, with a campaign rally every few hours, and promised his supporters there would be "a lot of celebrating" Tuesday night, after Wisconsin voters cast their ballots.
But the billionaire's characteristic confidence comes on the heels of his two toughest weeks since voting began and widespread skepticism about his chances of pulling off a victory in Tuesday's nominating contest.
"If Donald Trump doesn't win the Republican nomination, he's going to look back at last week and and frankly, he's not going to have anyone to blame but himself," veteran GOP strategist Ford O'Connell told the Washington Examiner.
Read more from Gabby Morrongiello at The Washington Examiner
Ted Cruz Fights To Stop Donald Trump’s March With Wisconsin Win
Sen. Ted Cruz enters Tuesday’s Wisconsin primary looking to reset the GOP presidential race, with his team insisting a win there will prove he’s consolidating the Republicans desperate to stop Donald Trump.
But the rest of the map this month appears to favor Mr. Trump as the race moves east to his home state of New York and then expands in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic.
Should his Northeast firewall hold, however, Mr. Trump could quickly overcome a Wisconsin setback.
“The month of April should be the month of Trump, and nothing cures bad news like winning,” said Ford O’Connell, a GOP strategist who worked on John McCain’s 2008 campaign.
“If Trump ultimately loses the nomination, he will look back at this week as the turning point of when the bottom started to drop out, and frankly, he will have no one to blame except himself,” Mr. O’Connell said. “But he can right the ship if he pretty much bosses the month of April outside of Wisconsin.”
Incumbent Ron Johnson Runs As Outsider As GOP Defends Senate
Incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., faces one of the toughest re-election fights of any Republican in the U.S. Senate for 2016. His race is one of several that will determine whether the GOP keeps its majority.
Johnson's campaign expects the race will be too close to call right up through Election Day, as he faces a rematch against his 2010 opponent, former Sen. Russ Feingold.
Johnson's team wants to prove his 2010 election during a wave of Tea Party-led victories was not a fluke, and for voters in Wisconsin to perceive him as the upstart outsider.
The most determinative factor in the Wisconsin Senate race, however, may have nothing to do with Johnson's tenure in office. His chances are inextricably tied to the 2016 presidential campaign, and the GOP nominee in particular.
Wisconsin's governor, Scott Walker, announced his campaign for president on Monday night and the positive attention he receives could boost Johnson and other Republicans' chances at home.
Ford O'Connell, a GOP strategist, said he believes Democrats hope Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign will drag Feingold over the finish line.
"If Clinton is running plus 15 in Wisconsin, Ron Johnson is toast regardless of how great he is," O'Connell said. "Walker will have a tougher time winning in Wisconsin than Johnson would… but their fates would be tied together [if they are both on the ballot]."
Unions: This time, We’ll Defeat Scott Walker
Labor groups are gearing up for another fight with Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) now that he has entered the presidential race.
After a failed recall bid in Wisconsin, unions are determined to make sure Walker never sets foot in the Oval Office. But organized labor’s opposition could play well for Walker in the GOP primary because it appeals to his conservative base.
Some of the biggest unions are still formulating their plan of attack against Walker, even as they signal they will dip into their coffers to go after him. The strongest signal came from AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka.
Shortly after taking over as governor in 2011, Walker signed legislation that severely weakened the collective bargaining rights of public sector employees such as teachers. Under the bill, state and local government workers — excluding police officers and firefighters — can only bargain for raises up to the point of inflation. Unions argue this move holds down wages throughout the state.
This led unions to attempt to recall Walker in 2012, which he ultimately survived.
Walker again targeted unions earlier this year after he was reelected, this time going after private sector unions. He signed right-to-work legislation that gives workers the choice to not join a union even if they indirectly benefit from the union’s collective bargaining agreements.
The back-and-forth with unions will only help raise Walker’s profile among potential Republican voters, said GOP strategist Ford O’Connell.
“This is political gold for Scott Walker in the Republican primary,” O’Connell said. “The fact that unions are attacking him and that he even won a recall election shows conservative voters that he’s a fighter who doesn’t back down and gets results.”
Would Scott Walker Win Wisconsin In 2016?
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker won three gubernatorial elections in four years, a fact that he repeats often in his early stump speeches across the country. But some Wisconsinites note that such victories did not coincide with a presidential election, and they openly wonder whether Walker would win his home state.
Walker's recall election victory in 2012 happened on a separate ballot and date from the presidential election.
Wisconsin has not gone red in a presidential election since Ronald Reagan won re-election in 1984, and the state's governor may give the GOP its best chance of victory in 2016.
But Ford O'Connell, a Republican strategist and veteran of the 2008 McCain-Palin presidential campaign, said if any Republican is going to win the Badger State it would be Scott Walker.
Walker seems to be developing a path to victory that leads directly through the Midwest, but it still may not be enough.
"If he wants to win the nomination, he has to win Iowa," O'Connell said. "[But] he's going to have to find a way to take his midwestern blue-collar message and somehow resonate in the south. … Scott Walker needs to have a find a way beyond the Midwest to win."
Scott Walker 2016: Rock Star Or Villain?
Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin is unique among the Republican hordes running for president: He is deeply polarizing within his own state, and almost certainly the most polarizing governor in the country.
Most Wisconsin Republicans love him, even if his numbers have declined a bit lately, while most Democrats can’t stand him. And therein lies both the promise and the peril of Governor Walker’s presidential candidacy, which launches on Monday.
The question, though, is how Walker will be perceived on the national stage. Most voters don’t pay attention to Wisconsin politics, and the fact that he’s a divisive figure at home doesn’t automatically translate nationally.
Still, Walker starts his campaign with a deep reserve of goodwill among the key segments of the GOP, both in Wisconsin and nationally: the “establishment,” social conservatives (he’s the son of a Baptist preacher), tea party conservatives, and libertarians. Walker leads polls of Republicans in neighboring Iowa, averaging almost 18 percent in a field of 16 candidates, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average.
Walker “has to win Iowa,” says Republican strategist Ford O’Connell. “It all comes down to Iowa.”
Walker’s top competitors for the nomination are the two Floridians, former Gov. Jeb Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio. “His biggest problems are Bush’s money and Rubio’s compelling narrative,” says Mr. O’Connell.
Read more from Linda Feldmann at The Christian Science Monitor
Wisconsin’s Dilettante
In the absence of a major Republican wave this year, a closer race was to be expected. The Marquette poll shows that just 5 percent of voters say they’re undecided. Like Governor Rick Scott in Florida, who is also locked in a tight race with an unattractive opponent, Walker is a known quantity and most voters have an opinion about him.
“The pool of undecided voters is just so small, I can’t even tell you if there’s any other state even comparable,” says one GOP strategist working on the race. “From now until the end, the race will stay tight.”
Walker rose to national prominence when he succeeded in getting legislation passed to curb the collective-bargaining rights of the state’s public-sector unions, and he caught the attention of top-dollar Republican donors when he beat back a union-led effort to recall his election. As throngs of left-wing protesters rushed the state capitol, he looked like the adult in the room, and he won the recall election by a greater margin than he was elected with in 2010.
Despite that accomplishment, he now faces the prospect of defeat, and the premature end to a presumptive presidential campaign.
“He’s in a dogfight, he has to win, period, and clearly the more he wins by the more his name is going to be touted after the midterm elections as somebody who is a viable candidate nationally,” says GOP strategist Ford O’Connell. A source close to top Republican donors says the governor is “raising money like crazy,” describing the effort as “all hands on deck.”
