Biden And Trump Battle Over 'Made In America' Economic Agenda
In 2016 President Donald Trump won over a large portion of working-class voters with an "America First" economic agenda, promising to bring back jobs and manufacturing to the United States. In 2020, former Vice President Joe Biden has made a similar pitch to voters, promising to invest $700 billion in American goods and labor to spur an economic recovery.
Like many campaign promises, Biden's "Buy American" blueprint was short on details. It is primarily a "political document," argued Republican strategist Ford O'Connell.
"This is about narratives and themes," O'Connell said. "Imitation to this degree illustrates just how strong Trump's 'America First' economic message is and how fearful the Biden campaign is of it at the ballot box."
"It's clear the Biden campaign is saying we need to find a way to cut into Trump's lead on this," O'Connell continued. "The better the economy does, the better the handling of the coronavirus seems to be in October, the better for Donald Trump."
Democrats Return To A Battered Trump
President Trump is emerging from a turbulent August with a new problem: Capitol Hill Democrats are about to be back in town.
The Democrats have vowed to unleash new fronts in their investigations of Trump and heap pressure on the White House and Republicans to tackle gun legislation this fall in response to a new series of mass shootings.
On Friday, two House committees sent inquiries to the White House about administration officials’ use of taxpayer money at Trump properties, after Vice President Pence was forced to defend a stay at a Trump property in Ireland during an official trip there.
Congress is returning to do battle with a weakened Trump, who entered the August recess from a point of strength but has been battered by weeks of bruising headlines.
GOP strategist Ford O’Connell said that the controversies individually aren’t major but that they as a whole detract from the White House’s messaging on low jobless claims and economic growth. Trump, he argued, needs to be wary of distracting from his accomplishments ahead of the 2020 election with “tweets from left field.”
“This is a lesson for the White House,” O’Connell said. “Part of that can be chucked up to the doldrums of summer, but they need to be really focused.”
Trump’s attention moving into the fall is likely to be increasingly focused on 2020 and his reelection bid.
Allies of the administration and former officials point to the push for the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement as the main legislative focus for the remainder of the year, but there is uncertainty around whether Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) will bring it up for a vote.
“The White House is going to go all in on this,” said O’Connell. “By not passing this, you’re rooting for the recession. You’re rooting to hurt the American worker.”
Read more from Morgan Chalfant and Brett Samuels at The Hill
Trump Leans Into Deal-Maker Reputation
President Trump is leaning into his deal-maker persona, seeking to project confidence about the economy ahead of his 2020 reelection bid.
At the Group of Seven (G-7) summit’s conclusion on Monday in Biarritz, France, Trump’s efforts were on full display.
The president spoke optimistically about the prospect of a deal to end the trade war with China, while championing a separate tentative trade agreement with Japan.
Trump promised a robust free trade agreement with a post-Brexit United Kingdom and spoke confidently about future nuclear agreements with North Korea and Iran. He also assailed the Obama administration for its “bad deal” with Tehran.
The performance was classic Trump and carried echoes of his first presidential campaign, when he ran on his experience as a celebrity businessman and real estate broker.
Republicans say Trump’s message, particularly when it comes to China, is meant to counter speculation about the prospect of a recession while fending off uncertainty spawned by a trade war that has resulted in dramatic stock market gyrations.
Economists say the prospect of a recession in 2020 has grown, and a trade pact with China might be one of the few things Trump could accomplish that would bolster economic confidence and even stave off a slowdown.
“Since [Franklin D. Roosevelt], every single president who has avoided recession has been reelected,” said GOP strategist Ford O’Connell. “As long as he’s optimistic about getting deals done and getting accomplishments, getting things done, that’s a good message for the American electorate.”
US-China Trade War Fuels Recession Fears, Will It Hurt Trump In 2020?
The strength of the U.S. economy has been the central pillar of President Donald Trump's reelection strategy, and for every incumbent president, avoiding a recession has been a determining factor in whether or not they win a second term.
As Trump addressed a crowd of workers at the Shell Petrochemicals Complex outside of Pittsburgh, touting record low unemployment and half-million new manufacturing jobs, the effects of the U.S.-China trade war were looming.
On Monday, markets took a dive as it appeared trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing were at a total impasse and the Trump administration was poised to tax the remaining balance of U.S. trade with China by Sept. 1. Markets bounced back Tuesday on the news that the administration was postponing tariffs on consumer goods, including cellphones, laptops and toys through December.
Before leaving his New Jersey residence, Trump told reporters the delay was "for the Christmas season, just in case some of the tariffs would have an impact on U.S. consumers."
Even with the good news, the trade war has prompted several top financial institutions to raise the specter of a recession. This week, Bank of America reported that the odds of a recession occurring within the next year had increased to 30%. They cited the trade war, slower economic growth and the limited ability of the Federal Reserve to stimulate the economy with rate cuts.
Republican strategist Ford O'Connell explained that the trade war hurts Trump's chances of reelection "in the sense that his calling card is the economy and history dictates, going back to FDR, that if you avoid a recession you will be reelected as an incumbent president."
It is also clear that barring a major economic, military or political disaster, 2020 will be a close election that will come down to a handful of battleground states. The states that are in play are largely in the industrial Midwest, parts of the south and the farm belt, where Trump's tariff policy has hit home.
"About four of those states are favorable to Trump's strategy but he's also recognizing there's only so much pain they can take at the moment," O'Connell said.
The Democratic primary has, so far, featured little discussion of those issues.
"It's clear that the Democrats, for whatever reason, seem to have no answer for China," O'Connell said. "They're barely even acknowledging what a longterm threat it is to the U.S. both economically and militarily. You'd think they just woke up to this fact."
Stocks Tank As Trade Deficit Reaches 10-Year Highs
The U.S. trade deficit grew to a 10-year high Thursday as self-proclaimed “tariff man” President Donald Trump continued to place his trade war with China at the center of his administration’s economic platform.
“When people or countries come in to raid the great wealth of our Nation, I want them to pay for the privilege of doing so. It will always be the best way to max out our economic power. We are right now taking in $billions in Tariffs. MAKE AMERICA RICH AGAIN,” he tweeted this week.
But trade deficits between the U.S. and China grew to an all-time high in October as imports rose 0.2 percent to $266.5 billion and exports fell 0.1 percent to $211 billion, making it clear that increased tariffs were not making “America rich again.”
The news came as the stock market fell once again Thursday, wiping away nearly all gains in 2018. Earlier this week, the U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted, a sign that typically indicates the economy is set to weaken. In a recent survey by Bloomberg, a vast majority of economists said the U.S. would likely see another recession before the end of 2020.
President Trump, who often takes credit for a thriving stock market and economy, has either blown off recessionary fears or placed the blame on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for raising interest rates.
But he may have more to worry about than he thinks.
“Trump’s biggest worry in 2020 isn’t a particular candidate or ticket, it’s a recession,” said Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist and former McCain-Palin presidential campaign adviser. “Incumbents have won 15 to 4 since 1900, but what the losers all have in common is a recession or major economic event.”
US Stocks Tumble After Trump Tweets On Trade
Republican strategist Ford O’ Connell and Heritage Foundation policy analyst Riley Walters on President Trump’s “tariff man” tweet and the U.S.-China trade truce.
US, Canada, Mexico Agree To Replace NAFTA, Bringing Relief To US Workers, Farmers
The United States, Canada, and Mexico agreed to sign a new trade deal to “terminate and replace” the 24-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
President Donald Trump says the new agreement will transform North America into a “manufacturing powerhouse.”
The new trilateral trade pact will be named the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement, or USMCA. Trump called the deal “historic news for our nation and indeed for the world.”
The partners have agreed to stronger rules of origin for autos and automobile parts that exceed those of both the original NAFTA and the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
The new deal has a 16-year lifespan, with a review period after six years, providing more certainty for business investments. According to the White House, the review period gives the United States significant leverage in pushing partners to comply with their obligations.
The steel and aluminum tariffs that the United States imposed on Canada and Mexico will be dealt with separately.
The trading partners now have 60 days to finalize the legal text and sign the agreement.
The USMCA can give Republicans another victory to point to, especially in the heartland and industrial Midwest, according to Ford O’Connell, a political analyst and Republican strategist.
“It certainly is important in the overall calculus for Republicans in their quest to hold the Senate and the House in 2018,” he said.
“But in terms of his political impact with voters, it will be a far more valuable for President Trump in his 2020 re-election bid with voters than it will be for Republicans in 2018.”
Stocks Soar On USMCA Trade Deal
America First Policies senior policy adviser Curtis Ellis, The Weekly Standard deputy managing editor Kelly Jane Torrance, Independent Women’s Forum policy director Hadley Heath Manning and CivicForumPAC Chairman Ford O’Connell on whether President Trump trade deal with Canada and Mexico is a template for future deals.
Trump’s Anti-Trade Talk Riles Republicans, Resonates With Blue-Collar Backers
Donald Trump’s powerful stance against trade deals and globalization has just about everybody in the political arena squirming — everybody, that is, except Mr. Trump and the blue-collar supporters he will need to win the White House in November.
His fierce attack on the North American Free Trade Agreement and the pending Trans-Pacific Partnership tradeagreement exposed a gaping rift in the Republican Party that has been plastered over for years between pro-business Republican leaders and the party’s working-class voters.
The usually firmly Republican-allied U.S. Chamber of Commerce was looking for cover Wednesday after clashing with Mr. Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, over his anti-globalization agenda.
Yet Mr. Trump’s populist rhetoric gave voice to working-class voters, who have often found themselves on the other side of the divide from business leaders and politicians both Republican and Democratic.
“It is a long-standing divide that is only growing bigger because of the role of globalization in the world economy and the U.S. economy,” said Ford O’Connell, a Republican Party strategist and conservative activist.
He said the Chamber might want to get out of the way of the Trump Train in states such as Pennsylvania, where polls show Mr. Toomey leading in the Senate race and Mr. Trump tied with Mrs. Clinton in the presidential race.
“You wonder if the Chamber’s actually catching on to what is taking place here,” he said. “Maybe the Chamber might be better off to back Toomey in private and not be so public about it.”
