Democrats Smell Blood In The Water For 2018 After Tuesday’s Electoral Romp
After coast-to-coast victories Tuesday and a romp in a key swing state, Democrats smell blood in the water for a 2018 election that could deal a body blow to President Donald Trump and the GOP.
Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam’s (D) blowout victory in Virginia’s gubernatorial race — the biggest election since Trump’s victory one year ago today — was the capstone of an impressive night that showed Democrats’ burning hot hatred of Trump can translate into sweeping electoral victories across the country.
His sweeping win was coupled with a Democratic sweep of statewide offices and huge gains by Democrats in the statehouse no one thought possible that have put the House of Delegates teetering on the edge of their control. Democrats have picked up at least 15 seats in the chamber, double the number most of them thought likely, and turned a two-to-one GOP edge in the chamber into a virtual tie. Control of the chamber hangs in the balance, with recounts still pending in some races.
GOP strategist Ford O’Connell said he wasn’t surprised Northam won, but the lopsided numbers worried him.
“What surprised me was the margin — Gillespie got crushed in suburbs and with millennials,” he said. “Democrats are fired up and Republicans are facing some tough headwinds and how they try to hold on to House will vary from district to district.”
Trump Is Best Chance At Blocking Anti-Gay Ex-Judge Roy Moore From Senate
The biggest thing in between controversial former Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore (R) and the U.S. Senate is Donald Trump.
Heading into election day on Tuesday, the question is whether the president and the GOP establishment have been able to do enough to push their favored candidate, appointed Sen. Luther Strange (R-AL), into a runoff where they think they can defeat a man best known for his anti-gay and religious right stances.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and his donor network have gone all-in for Strange, a former state attorney general and lobbyist who was appointed to the Senate after Jeff Sessions left to become attorney general
With $4 million in negative ads attacking Rep. Mo Brooks (R-AL) for his earlier criticism of Trump and the president’s last-minute support in a state where he’s immensely popular with the GOP base, they’re feeling confident that they’ve put their man into the top two in the race ahead of a likely runoff on Sept. 28.
“I’m not inclined to believe Moore can’t win this race,” said Ford O’Connell, a national GOP strategist who did some work on Strange’s 2010 race for attorney general. “A lot of folks in Alabama are looking for someone who’s a lot more fiery. They’re looking beyond the usual business conservative wing, they’re looking for ideologues who represent them.”
Did Obama Get The Job Done At Hofstra? Dems Say ‘Resoundingly Yes’
After Denver, President Obama went into Tuesday night’s town hall debate at Hofstra University with a tall order: He had to win back independents and women who gave Mitt Romney a second look after the first debate and he had to fire up a demoralized Democratic base.
Did he do it?
Among Democratic strategists, the consensus from last night’s debate is that he did. And the cherry on top: Romney stumbled.
It was crucial for Obama to show strength and he delivered, Democrats told TPM. At this stage in the race, you don’t win undecided voters with new information but by displaying confidence in what you will do and what you have done.
The Republican view of Obama’s debate performance is less rosy, but still largely positive for fans of the president. Republican strategist Ford O’Connell told TPM that Obama “got more out of” the debate than Romney because the president’s performance fired up his base, which was feeling low following the Denver debate. But O’Connell said it’s not clear yet whether the debate accomplished the Democrats’ second goal of blunting Mitt-mentum.
“Looking at [post-debate polling], they all felt that Romney did better on things like economy, the deficit and strong leadership,” he said. “Those issues right there — I know it’s hard to pull out of flash polls and focus groups — show this debate might not have dented Romney’s momentum to the extent that most of those on the left think.”
O’Connell said the talk about women’s issues might play both ways. While Romney made a misstep with his “women full of binders” line, O’Connell said, he also may have appealed to them with his focus on the economy. Suburban women — who pundits said were the focus of the debate for both candidates — could be open to Romney’s continued focus on the economy when women’s issues come up.
“I definitely think the president did well by talking about the Ledbetter Act,” he said. “The blue collar suburban mom, we’re still seeing, yes they’re concerned about equal pay, but they’re concerned about pay in general.”
Pay close attention to swing state polls in coming says, O’Connell said, to see if the debate moves the needle among persuadable voters.
Things Are So Bad For Romney, Republicans Are Letting Him Tout RomneyCare
A little more than 24 hours have passed since Mitt Romney took the base-alienating step of touting the health care law he signed while governor of Massachusetts in an interview with NBC. Unlike the last time his campaign heralded his signature achievement, however, the conservative grumbling was relatively muted.
Why? Because, Republicans say, things are so bad for Romney that they’ll even let him talk up his health care law.
“A sizable portion of the voters that Romney needs to win over in the swing states are okay with ObamaCare,” said Ford O’Connell, a GOP consultant. “And the right recognizes that Romney is running behind in the polls, and will permit him — within reason — to use any tool necessary to salvage this election."
‘Take A Punch From The Left’ And Other Things Romney Needs To Do In The Debates
Mitt Romney’s aides aren’t even bothering with the usual game of lowering expectations for their candidate ahead of his Oct. 3 debate in Denver. With President Obama solidifying leads in almost every battleground state, Romney needs a dominant performance to change the dynamic, and everyone knows it.
Assuming Obama maintains his polling edge, his debate checklist is clear: hold his own against Romney’s attacks and avoid any major missteps. Romney’s path is much more complex and varied. Here are a few of the boxes he needs to check off in a successful matchup.
• Fire Up Early Voters
Sure Romney’s in rough shape, but the only poll that matters is on Nov. 6, right? Wrong. The debates aren’t just a preview to Election Day, they actually come just as voters hit the polls in key states.
“The first debate is key because Iowa and Ohio will open early voting [in] the week before,” Republican strategist Ford O’Connell told TPM. “And those are two states he’s really got his eye on on the way to 270. Clearly he’s behind the eight ball in Ohio, but even if he wins Ohio, Florida and Virginia he sill needs another state — and the question is then does it become Iowa, New Hampshire or Colorado?”
As a result, the debates may offer Romney his last best chance to convince voters he’s the only candidate who can turn the economy around.
Read more from Benjay Sarlin and Evan McMorris-Santoro at TPM
Nice-Guy Failure Or Evil Mastermind? RNC, Romney Split On Obama Messaging
Depending on which Republican you ask, President Obama is either a power-hungry politician who will spew any lie to keep his iron grip on the Oval Office, or just a nice guy who is in over his head.
In the battle to tear down a president who remains personally popular with much of the electorate, a split is emerging in the GOP effort to define the president: Mitt Romney and his campaign have cast Obama as a Machiavellian mastermind, trying to dupe the country into supporting his socialistic plot. The second tack, taken by the Republican National Committee, is to portray Obama as a bumbling failure, a likable guy who just doesn’t have the skills to live up to his promises.
Both tactics are on full display this week, putting the party apparatus and its nominee at odds.
Republican observers acknowledge the disconnect but expect one of the tactics will win out.
“[Romney’s advisers] recognize that they’re not going to be able to make up the likability gap with Obama so part of it is bringing Obama down to our level. If I can’t go up, let’s bring him down,” GOP strategist Ford O’Connell said. “I think they’re sending out a test message.”
O’Connell said Romney’s tried the RNC approach and appears to have abandoned it.
“They’ve said over and over enough that he’s a likable guy and the polls are static,” he said. “So now there’s a chance to say, ‘He’s slinging mud at us … this is not the guy of hope and change.’”
Republicans Believe Gingrich’s Legacy Will Be As Romney Debate Coach
Sometime next week, the long, slow death of Newt Gingrich’s presidential campaign will finally come to an end. After a year of dizzying highs and terrifying lows, Gingrich is throwing in the towel and suspending his bid for the White House after winning two states and several more presidential debates.
RNC Chairman Reince Priebus perhaps summarized Gingrich’s impact on the race best.
“I don’t know that. I just don’t know right now,” he told TPM on a conference call when asked what, if anything, we’ll be talking about in the fall thanks to Gingrich.
“I will tell you that I have a lot of respect for Speaker Gingrich, I think he’s got a lot of great ideas,” Priebus said. “I suspect he’s going to be very helpful to the party moving forward and obviously I would suspect as he’s stated he’s going to be very helpful to Gov. Romney but as far as any more specifics — I mean who knows, I can’t answer that right now.”
Other observers were more direct when it comes to what Gingrich’s long campaign has left on the table for the general.
Ford O’Connell, a D.C.-based unaligned Republican strategist said Romney will be a more polished debater this fall, thanks to Gingrich.
“He made Romney a better debater, trust me,” O’Connell said. “Let me tell you something: Romney still has some stuff to work on in debates and obviously Obama at this juncture is a superior debater but really Gingrich taught Romney how to debate and how to be more presidential.”
What Hath Rick Santorum Wrought?
In the comic book version of the 2012 GOP presidential contest, Rick Santorum would be known as Dr. Chaos. An ex-senator whose name was almost lost to history, Santorum donned his signature sweater vest and transformed into the larger-than-life conservative who’d expose all of Mitt Romney’s existing weaknesses — and create a few new ones.
Santorum’s own campaign proudly reflected on their contribution to the race just after he announced he was stepping aside: We knocked Romney off his economic message, they said.
But in executing an expectations-busting campaign, Santorum lured Romney far away from his economy-based message, forcing the presumptive nominee to take some positions that Republicans believe will be easy for the Obama campaign to exploit.
“In the short term, [Santorum’s campaign] is a net negative because he has hurt Romney’s favorables with women and independents,” said Ford O’Connell, an unaffiliated GOP strategist. “In the long term, it could be a net positive, because Santorum really took Romney out of his comfort zone, particularly when it came to talking about social conservatives and social conservative issues.”
Team Santorum, for its part, is glad they temporarily derailed the train.
Now Romney has to shift to the general election. And thanks to Romney’s maneuvers to respond to Santorum throughout the primary, that’s going to be tough. Santorum gave Romney enough time to bounce back, O’Connell said, but only if Romney learns to avoid following future attempts to knock him off message.
“I put the blame on Romney, really, more than Santorum,” O’Connell said, “because Romney followed him down that hole. That’s why the question is whether or not he learned that lesson.”
Read more from Benjy Sarlin and Evan McMorris-Santoro at TPM
Santorum Undermines His Main Argument
Rick Santorum might just be as bad at winning as Mitt Romney.
In the days following the former Pennsylvania senator’s big win in Louisiana — which his campaign touted as proof that Santorum can still woo conservatives who won’t resign themselves to Romney — Santorum took a page from his chief rival’s book and made a series of gaffes that overshadowed his primary triumph.
Monday’s campaign news cycle was all about “bullshit”-gate, a controversy over an outburst Santorum made at a New York Times reporter. Cursing at a journalist on camera ensured that the spat became the news, rather than any serious discussion of his viability as a candidate. It also gave critics an easy target for a candidate who espouses conservative family values as a cornerstone of his campaign.
And “bullshit”-gate wasn’t even the biggest gaffe Santorum made since winning the primary.
That came in a Monday in which Santorum turned in his flamethrower badge and effectively gave up his role as anti-Romney insurgent. In an interview with the Christian Broadcasting Network, Santorum said he’d be comfortable running as Romney’s running mate.
Ford O’Connell, the GOP strategist who told TPM last week Romney needs to get a handle on his post-victory gaffes if he wants to bring the brutal primary to an end, said Santorum’s VP line makes it much harder for him to keep pushing the case that Republicans need to risk a dangerous brokered convention by supporting him.
“Saying, ‘I will support the nominee’ is the right thing to do,” he said. “But now he wants to stay relevant, and taking those whacks at Romney and then saying, ‘OK, well I’ll be a team player’ kind of undermines his whole argument.”
The Silver Foot In His Mouth: How Romney's Gaffes Keep The Primaries Going
You have to believe someone in Romney-land checked Twitter Wednesday morning, let out a heavy sigh, and said, “Not again.”
The Etch A Sketch anecdote heard round the political world Wednesday wasn’t an outlier for the Romney campaign — it’s a way of life. And it could be keeping Romney from moving on to the general election fight he desperately needs to get started.
This time, it was Romney adviser Eric Fehrnstrom stepping on Romney’s big win in Illinois and his widely praised victory speech. But it was by no means the first time Romney or the people trying to make him president have derailed a good day by very neatly highlighting their candidates worse attributes.
“A pattern is certainly starting to develop,” unaligned GOP strategist Ford O’Connell told TPM. “I still attribute it to dumb luck. Maybe he should carry a rabbit’s foot in his pocket, I don’t know.”
O’Connell suggested the gaffe pattern could be one of the reasons the process Romney is still likely to win is dragging on so long. Most of the gaffes — and Etch A Sketch was no exception — gave his Republican opponents the same chance to wail on him for a day they did the Democrats.
“These unforced errors are killing him,” O’Connell said. “Because the longer this primary goes on, the more it hurts him in the general election. Every time he makes these comments, some of his conservative detractors — it makes them redouble their efforts. And that makes him work even harder to win the nomination.”
