Senate Republicans who are up for reelection next year are sticking as close to President Trump as possible, especially on his signature issue of illegal immigration and border security.

Even as some Senate Republicans broke with Trump over his emergency declaration to build a wall on the Mexican border, most of those running for reelection next year backed Trump — a sign of their fear of Trump-fueled primary opponents.

Only one of the 12 Republicans who voted on Thursday for a Democratic-backed resolution overturning Trump’s emergency declaration is up for reelection next year: Sen. Susan Collins (R), who has a well-established reputation in Maine as an independent.

Republicans running in other swing states who arguably might have benefited from distancing themselves from Trump, such as Sens. Cory Gardner (Colo.), Martha McSally (Ariz.) and Thom Tillis (N.C.), stuck with him.

GOP strategists said Republicans have little choice given the potency of the issue of border security with Trump’s base.

A recent Politico/Morning Consult poll found that 70 percent of Republicans said they would be more likely to vote for a senator or representative who supports Trump’s national emergency declaration. 

“The reason why you had Gardner and Tillis do this is because they knew that the process/principle argument wasn’t going to fly with the Republican base when this is their No. 1 issue. They want execution, and they don’t care how you get it,” said Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist. 

O’Connell said Gardner and Tillis, who have two of the most competitive races next year, need to worry about fending off primary challenges and turning out conservative voters in the election, when Democratic turnout is expected to be high. 

“Even though they want to fend off primary challenges, this is also a situation where, in the general election, if they cross Trump on this issue, Trump could win their state and they could still lose,” he added. “In a lot of these races, it’s going to be two-point races, whether it’s Gardner or it’s Tillis.

Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) is in a slightly different position.

“Obviously Sasse is more concerned about a primary challenge,” O’Connell said, noting that Trump won Nebraska by 20 points in 2016. Sasse describes himself as a “constitutional conservative” and warned in a statement to National Review magazine in February that Trump’s emergency border declaration undermined the Constitution’s separation of powers.  

Read more from Alexander Bolton at The Hill

The important lesson from the North Carolina primary is that the GOP needs to find "the most electable candidate" they can, because it is very difficult to defeat an incumbent, says Republican strategist Ford O'Connell. 

"What most people don't understand is an incumbent, even as vulnerable as Kay Hagan, always has the upper hand," O'Connell told J.D. Hayworth on "America's Forum" on Newsmax TV. 

North Carolina state House Speaker Thom Tillis won the Republican Senate primary against tea party favorite Greg Brannon. Tillis will challenge Hagan in the November midterm elections. 

Many are touting the primary as a win for the Republican establishment. 

"What I'm concerned about here is that if Thom Tillis should lose to Kay Hagan, we're going to see [people say], "oh, I told you so, we should've gone with Greg Brannon, and I don't think the people realize how hard it is to unseat an incumbent in the general election," O'Connell said Wednesday.

Even though it is important for the GOP to find electable candidates, it is also important that it not ignore the grassroots, O'Connell says. 

"I would like to see the GOP establishment listen to the grassroots more because . . . the Republican Party has a lot of diverse wings to it, and if you can't keep the party together and the base together, then you're not going to win overall," he added. "A party without a base is not a party."

The Washington Post recently gave Republicans an 82 percent chance of taking the Senate in November, but the GOP analyst says that while the odds appear to be in the Republicans' favor, there are still a lot of variables that make such a prediction a bit premature. 

Read more from  Courtney Coren at Newsmax.com

The temperature is warming, the flowers are in bloom, the trees are filling out, and it’s an even-numbered year: ahh, it must be primary season, with the sweet smell of headstrong disruption emanating from Republican races across the land. Which “establishment favorites” will be ousted this year for once daring to draw a perceived RINO breath? Which tragicomic, rape-ain’t-so-bad clownheads will replace them and go on to lose seats that they have no business losing? It’s springtime for “Republican civil war” narrative-crafters.

If only there were more material to work with. So far, GOP Primary Season 2014 has been heavily overrated as a stage for intraparty drama.

Let’s consider the main event tonight: North Carolina’s Senate Republican primary, the winner of which will face vulnerable Democratic incumbent Sen. Kay Hagan in November.This is the one to watch, we’ve been told. And that’s because it sets up perfectly for political media typecasting. There’s state speaker Thom Tillis, the “establishment” favorite, getting endorsements from the Mitt Romneys and Karl Roves of the world, and having lots of money. Then we have Dr. Greg Brannon, the non-career politician “Tea Party” crusader, endorsed by the likes of Sen. Rand Paul and FreedomWorks and Gadsden flag-wavers everywhere; the guy who can’t go four seconds without quoting some clause of the Constitution that instantly provides the answer to all of our most complex socioeconomic problems. And then there’s Mark Harris, the Mike Huckabee-backed Bible dude.

The establishment guy, the Tea Party guy, the social conservative guy. Got it?

So who’s going to win? Is it a toss-up or something — is that why we’re paying attention? Not really. We’re paying attention to see if there’s going to be… a runoff. A runoff that Tillis, in all likelihood, would win.

But then we get to the sub-sub(?)-narrative, the one that Republican party officials are more worried about: that if Tillis can’t lock up 40% in today’s kickoff special, it will set a cynical, “here they go again” tone within the media for the whole season. From The Hill:

“It’s extremely important. If Tillis avoids a runoff the headline is ‘GOP dodges a bullet’ and if he doesn’t, it’s ‘Hagan dodges a bullet,’” said Republican strategist Ford O’Connell.

O’Connell said the race could help set the tone for the rest of the primary season, for better or worse.

“It’s important for Tillis to get the party beyond this hump psychologically as well. It could make a lot of other things go easier. The last thing the party wants is the ‘here they go again’ narrative,” he said.

Read more Jim Newell at Salon.com

A slew of May primary battles begins Tuesday as the Republican establishment looks to reassert its control over a divided GOP in a number of states.

Its first big test comes in North Carolina, where business-friendly GOP groups have gone all-in for House Speaker Thom Tillis as he seeks to avoid a primary election runoff and turn his focus to Sen. Kay Hagan (D-N.C.). The race is a top priority for the GOP as it seeks to win back the Senate.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and American Crossroads have combined to spend nearly $2.5 million on ads boosting Tillis in the race, deluging the airwaves to raise his name identification. Former GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney endorsed Tillis on Monday, joining former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) and North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory (R).

As the TV battle heated up, Tillis rose quickly on the polls and is now on the cusp of the 40 percent he needs to win the primary on the first try, according to recent public and private polling. If he falls below that mark he’ll have to contend with a mid-July primary runoff against either Tea Party candidate Greg Brannon (R), who is campaigning with Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) on Monday, or Rev. Mark Harris (R), who has former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee’s (R) support.

A win on Tuesday allows Tillis to conserve resources for the general election and train his fire on Hagan, who has had a narrow lead against Tillis in most recent public polls. But if he falls short he’ll have to slog it out for another few months, potentially hurting his chances in the general election and giving the Tea Party another shot. 

“It’s extremely important. If Tillis avoids a runoff the headline is ‘GOP dodges a bullet’ and if he doesn’t, it’s ‘Hagan dodges a bullet,’ ”  said Republican strategist Ford O’Connell. 

O’Connell said the race could help set the tone for the rest of the primary season, for better or worse.

“It’s important for Tillis to get the party beyond this hump psychologically as well. It could make a lot of other things go easier. The last thing the party wants is the ‘here they go again’ narrative,” he said.

Read more from Cameron Joseph at The Hill

North Carolina has a Republican candidate capable of unseating Democratic incumbent Kay Hagen provided he can survive the primary season with enough resources left for the general election, Republican strategist Ford O'Connell says.

O'Connell told J.D. Hayworth and John Bachman on "America's Forum" on Newsmax TV that he believes Thom Tillis has what it takes to give the GOP the crucial victory it needs if it is to gain control of the Senate in the fall midterm elections if he can avoid a drawn-out primary.

Tillis, North Carolina's state House Speaker, faces four other candidates in the May 6 primary, including physician Greg Brannon, and Baptist minister Mark Harris, who has tea party backing. If Tillis doesn't clear the 40 percent mark in the primary, he will be forced into a runoff against another Republican on July 15.

"Right now Thom Tillis is leading but he's only polling about 20 or 25 percent," O'Connell said. "If he doesn't get 40 percent then he's going to have a run-off. The question is, the rest of the candidates are a little bit more conservative and do the votes of the other candidates coalesce when they actually have a run-off in July? I think this is heading to a primary run-off and then we're going to see who emerges after that."

Read more from Joe Battaglia at Newsmax.com