
Posted
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Political Quarterback
· September 22, 2015 11:00 PM
Governor Christie took a break from his presidential campaign to visit a Paterson drug and alcohol treatment program Tuesday afternoon to highlight the work of a task force he appointed one year ago to combat addiction in the state.
Tuesday’s event followed several media appearances by Christie, and Gov. Scott Walker’s announcement Monday that he was suspending his presidential campaign. Christie isn’t showing any signs that he plans to follow Walker or former Texas Gov. Rick Perry in dropping out.
While Christie has pushed to put a focus on addiction treatment and other issues – including overhauling Social Security; reforming the tax code; and bolstering the country’s military – his campaign has been struggling to gain traction.
Ford O’Connell, a GOP strategist who worked on John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign, said Christie has more hurdles to overcome than the other Republican candidates because Democrats worked so hard to smear his reputation in the wake of the George Washington Bridge lane closure scandal.
“The traditional rules of rising to the top don’t apply to Christie because he’s still battling the perception the Democrats labeled on him beautifully of being damaged goods,” O’Connell said. “He has to turn in two or three of these good debate performances because he has to dig himself out of a bigger hole than a lot of these other candidates.”
And in order to remain relevant ahead of the next debate in Colorado on Oct. 28, O’Connell said Christie needs to raise money. Though he noted Christie’s campaign has been smart by keeping its staff slim – unlike Walker who blew through the funds he raised – and by relying largely on a super PAC to run ads supporting his bid.
He said Christie has an opportunity with Walker dropping out of the race and donors looking for someone to back other than frontrunner Donald Trump.
“The best thing he has going for him is Jeb Bush isn’t gaining traction and John Kasich didn’t light the world on fire in the last debate,” O’Connell said. “Where the money people are looking is who can take on Trump.”
O’Connell said the question is whether Christie can convince the big donors to back him becayse many donors are “keeping all their options open.”
Read more from Melissa Hayes at NorthJersey.com

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Political Quarterback
· September 15, 2015 11:00 PM
The Republican 2016 hopefuls relegated to Wednesday’s preliminary GOPpresidential debate have a new sense of urgency after their ranks were culled last week with the withdrawal of former Texas Gov. Rick Perry from the race and the elevation of one of their own, Carly Fiorina, to the main stage.
Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and former New York Gov. George Pataki are all hoping to score the kind of performance that will help them emulate Ms. Fiorina. But operating low-budget campaigns without the kind of attention reserved for the big-name candidates, they are in danger of following Mr. Perry, who flamed out last week.
Most of the attention will go to the 11 candidates in the main event at the Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California. The preliminary affair begins at 6 p.m. East Coast time, while the main debate begins after 8 p.m.
Debates can be crucial for cash-strapped candidates who are looking to gain some traction against some of their better-funded rivals. And being part of the preliminary debate could even be beneficial for the four lower-tier candidates, because they’ll get more airtime per person to make their pitch, compared to the 11-person free-for-all that will ensue later.
But Ford O’Connell, a GOP strategist, said it will be tough for the candidates to make gains.
“I don’t know that any of them can get out of the losers’ table,” Mr. O’Connell said. “I mean, seriously, they might need an act of God.
“For Fiorina, she is a special case. She is the only female in the field, and she presented herself well. The others are careers politicians, and the voters are not up for a career politician being up there right now,” he said.
Read more from Seth McLaughlin at The Washington Times

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Political Quarterback
· September 12, 2015 5:00 PM
Rick Perry spent four years after his 2012 presidential collapse trying to ensure that "Oops" wouldn't be the final word on his political career.
It didn't work.
For the 2016 race, the longest-serving governor in Texas history swapped cowboy boots for eyeglasses, hit the road again, promoted his state's job-creating prowess, boned up with policy experts. This would be a humbler, better prepared candidate, ready for the national spotlight, he promised.
Now, barely three months after Perry announced presidential bid No. 2 in a broiling airplane hangar outside Dallas, the reboot is history.
So, too, seemingly is the political career he wanted to revive.
It was no surprise when Perry announced Friday in St. Louis that he was suspending a campaign that was nearly broke and polling at close to zero. Still, such a precipitous drop was once hard to imagine for a savvy politician who had presided for 14 years over Texas and its booming economy.
Perry, 65, hasn't announced his retirement, but so far there's been no repeat of the pledge, made after the 2012 debacle, not to ride off into the political sunset.
"You saw a different guy, but he was invalidated by that gaffe," said Republican strategist Ford O'Connell. "He worked his tail off, he put a lot of effort in. But there was no way he could have recovered."
Read more from Will Weissert at The Associated Press

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Political Quarterback
· August 05, 2015 9:00 AM
Carly Fiorina and Bobby Jindal won't step onto the main stage of the Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, Ohio, for the first major 2016 Republican presidential debate on Thursday evening.
But left-out 2016 contenders relegated to an earlier debate—an event that Lindsey Graham has dubbed "the Happy Hour Debate"—want the world to know: That doesn't mean they can't win the White House.
After finding out that their candidates failed to qualify for the headlining GOP debate hosted by Fox News, Fiorina's and Jindal's campaigns were quick to downplay its importance and to deliver a message that the White House hopefuls are keeping an eye on the ultimate prize.
But Republican strategists warn that missing the first prime-time debate could do serious damage.
"Does it sort of put your campaign on life support? Yes, it does," Ford O'Connell, GOP consultant and former campaign adviser to John McCain, said. "You want to be in the top-tier debate."
Strategists say that there's still a chance that a breakout performance at the early event could help a candidate like Fiorina climb high enough in the polls to make it to CNN's prime-time debate next month.
"If you do well, you could be in the top tier in the next go around, because chances are someone on the main stage will trip and fall, too," O'Connell said. "It's still on Fox. It's still on national television. It's still a big deal."
The challenge for candidates who miss the prime-time event but still show up for the earlier debate will be to make a splash without going overboard.
Read more from Clare Foran at NationalJournal

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Political Quarterback
· August 04, 2015 11:00 PM
The final polls are in and the stage is set for Thursday night's first Republican presidential debate.
Those who made the cut, according to Fox News: businessman Donald Trump, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, neurosurgeon Ben Carson, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
Relegated to an earlier debate Thursday evening: Texas Gov. Rick Perry, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, former New York Gov. George Pataki and former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore.
The choice on who to include was a tough one for Fox, which had to decide exactly how to fit so many candidates on stage amid a ballooning field.
Fox's ultimate decision was to base who made the main debate stage in Cleveland on Thursday night at 9 p.m. ET on five of the most recent national polls that met their standards. Surveys from Bloomberg, CBS News, Fox News, Quinnipiac University and Monmouth University were averaged.
"It's 'must-see TV,' but the 'must-see' starts with Trump," said Republican strategist Ford O'Connell. "Is he going to be a statesman or is he going to be an outspoken bomb thrower? Who knows."
Both O'Connell and Bonjean said the other top candidates, like Bush and Walker, would be wise to avoid taking on Trump directly, since they have nothing to gain and more to lose by doing so. But other candidates who need a surge of momentum might benefit from some direct attacks.
"He's got to be just livid," O'Connell said. "It's unfortunate for Rick because this time around, it's hard to make a first impression the second time."
Read more from Jessica Taylor at NPR

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Political Quarterback
· July 23, 2015 5:00 PM
Following Rick Perry's strong denunciation of Donald Trump, Republican political pros have been speculating on whether his anti-Trump declarations will boost his poll numbers enough to put him in the first Republican presidential debate on Aug. 6.
More than a few GOP political consultants believe that getting the 10 percent support in the polls that debate host Fox News requires for participation in its televised forum is a major reason behind Perry’s attacks on fellow presidential hopeful Trump.
Speaking in Washington on Tuesday, former Texas Gov. Perry charged that Trump’s strong words about Mexican immigrants mean the billionaire’s candidacy "is a cancer that must be diagnosed, excised, and discarded," and he likened what he called "Trumpism" to the anti-immigrant and anti-Catholic "Know-Nothing" movement of the mid-1800s.
So is Perry taking the right path in attacking Trump?
"Absolutely," Republican consultant and commentator Ford O’Connell told Newsmax. "What better way to secure a place on the debate stage than to get on Trump’s rocket ship?"
Read more from John Gizzi at Newsmax

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Political Quarterback
· July 23, 2015 9:00 AM
Rick Perry warned Wednesday that Donald Trump’s “toxic mix of demagoguery, mean-spiritedness and nonsense” could relegate the GOP to minor-party status.
In his address, organized by the Opportunity and Freedom PAC supporting his candidacy, Perry attacked liberal policies and the failings of the Obama administration at home and abroad but directed the bulk of his fire against Trump, who is leading Republican polls nationally.
By contrast, Perry is just barely hanging on to the final spot on Fox News’s debate stage. According to the RealClearPolitics average of polls, he is in 10th place, with 2 percent support. Ohio Gov. John Kasich, former Sen. Rick Santorum (Pa.) and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal are hot on his heels.
Fox News is capping the Aug. 6 debate at 10 contestants based on national polling numbers.
While most of the Republicans running for president have merely detoured into attacks or stray denouncements of remarks made by Trump, Perry has established himself as Trump’s most frequent and vocal critic in the GOP.
Republicans say engaging with Trump is an effective strategy for Perry with the potential to raise his standing in the high-stakes scramble to qualify for the Fox News debate.
“Presidential campaigns are a marathon, but there are times when you’ll have to sprint, and everyone is sprinting right now to get on that debate stage,” said Republican strategist Ford O’Connell. “Being civil and playing by the normal rules of etiquette hasn’t worked for him so far, so why not hit Trump square in the nose for the media attention, if for nothing else.”
“Trump is a meteor that Perry can just hook on to and take for a ride,” O’Connell said.
Read more from Jonathan Easley at The Hill

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Political Quarterback
· July 21, 2015 10:00 AM
Donald Trump quickly earned the scorn of many veterans' groups this weekend with his controversial comments about Sen. John McCain's military service.
But the irony is that the unpredictable Trump is still likely to make it into the Fox News debate next month. And if he does, he will quite possibly bump off the stage one of the only two Republican candidates who are military veterans: former Texas Gov. Rick Perry. The other veteran, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, is not close to the threshold for inclusion, but having neither Graham nor Perry on stage is sure to be an issue.
According to the Washington Post's most recent calculations, Perry just barely makes the cut for the Aug. 6 debate; the candidates on stage will be the top 10 from an average of the five latest national polls. Last week, Perry ranked 11th and looked like he would miss the debate, while Graham is further down. New polls are being released that could change that formula, but Perry is on the bubble.
The potential slight to the two Air Force veterans also comes at a time when national security is a big issue among voters. Now some Republicans are worrying about denying the vets' voice while giving Trump his greatest megaphone yet.
"It has the potential to become a sideshow on an important issue for Republican voters," said GOP strategist Ford O'Connell, who worked on McCain's 2008 campaign for president. "Graham and Perry pretty much stay above the fray. With Trump, he's just so unpredictable and is running an entire campaign on emotion."
Read more from Jessica Taylor at NPR

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Political Quarterback
· June 04, 2015 9:00 PM
Former Texas Governor Rick Perry announced on Thursday he will pursue the Republican presidential nomination again in 2016, seeking redemption for a fumbled White House bid in 2012 and adding to a crowded field of conservative candidates.
Perry said at a rally in Addison, a Dallas suburb, that he would boost the U.S. economy and improve homeland security, and he pointed to his record in Texas as proof he could do it.
The longest-serving governor in Texas history, Perry's 2012 candidacy fell apart in an embarrassing Republican debate performance when he failed to remember the third of three government agencies he wanted to scrap, blurting out "Oops."
Perry, 65, has presented himself since as a more thoughtful, policy-oriented candidate this time around.
"Rick Perry is the most accomplished of all of the folks that are potentially running in 2016," Republican strategist Ford O'Connell said.
The Republican presidential field already includes nine announced candidates and others are considering bids.
"It's very hard in politics to get a second chance to make a first impression," O'Connell added.
Read more from Marcie Richter at Reuters

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Political Quarterback
· June 04, 2015 11:00 AM
Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry launched his presidential campaign four years ago as an instant front-runner — a proven job-creator with solid conservative credentials, formidable fundraising prowess and perhaps enough cowboy swagger to take Republicans by storm.
Then came “Oops” and Perry’s tumble from powerhouse to punchline.
Now he’s back, hitting Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina hard and early, and studying up on policy to become better prepared.
A senior adviser to Perry tells The Associated Press that the former governor will make the widely expected announcement that he’s in the 2016 race on Thursday in Dallas. The adviser requested anonymity to speak ahead of the formal announcement.
As Perry returns to presidential politics, the question remains: Will he get another solid chance?
“It’s going to be hard to make a first impression a second time,” said Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist in Washington.
Perry’s camp notes that many past Republican candidates, including Mitt Romney in 2012, rebounded to win the party’s presidential nomination after failing in a previous bid. But O’Connell, the GOP strategist, said the 2016 field is “extremely talented and deep” compared to four years ago.
“For him to win the nomination,” O’Connell said, “he’s going to have to be great, but a lot of people are going to have to trip and fall along the way.”
Read more from Will Weissert and Steve Peoples at The Associated Press