An intraparty fight over the annual defense authorization bill is turning into a showcase for rising conservative stars in the Senate who have their eyes on the White House for 2024.

President Trump has threatened to veto the legislation, and Republican senators weighing White House bids are being careful not to cross him.

Sens. Josh Hawley (Mo.), Tom Cotton (Ark.), Ted Cruz (Texas) and Rand Paul (Ky.) — four GOP senators who are potential presidential candidates in 2024 — voted against the legislation that passed with overwhelming bipartisan support on Friday.

“Overall, what it shows you is that for these folks who could be the future leaders of the party, it shows you how strong Donald Trump’s hold on the party is,” said Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist.

He said the issues being raised in the annual defense bill “are going to be important for the 2024 nominee.”

“The Big Tech part is huge,” O’Connell said, referring to Trump’s complaint that the legislation does not include language repealing Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act, a 1996 law that provides legal protections to internet companies and allows them to engage in good faith moderation of content on their platforms.

O’Connell said language reforming Big Tech’s liability shield is a hot-button topic with conservatives who feel social media platforms censor pro-Trump content and may have helped President-elect Joe Biden win the election.

“We see the power that Big Tech wields,” he said. “It really fits in with a lot of the things Trump has been talking about.”

Read more from Alexander Bolton at The Hill

Congressional Republicans will defer to President Trump on many things, but on foreign policy, they are more willing to assert themselves. That’s been clear in the aftermath of Trump’s announced withdrawal from Syria and the resignation of Defense Secretary Jim Mattis. But a more subtle sign of the president’s loose grip on lawmakers was the emergence of an unlikely alliance against him that has been described by one of its participants as a sign of the “end times.”

Sens. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., and Rand Paul, R-Ky., represent opposite poles of the GOP foreign-policy spectrum. Graham is hawkish, insisting that if we do not fight America’s enemies “over there,” we will instead face them “over here.” Paul is a skeptic of military intervention, especially in the Middle East, who argues the U.S. is fighting too many wars with too little congressional authorization.

On Saudi Arabia, the two of them are united: They want to punish Riyadh for the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi and are exasperated by the president’s unwillingness to confront Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Trump wants to continue to have a close relationship with the Saudi regime, which he views as an important counterweight to Iranian influence in the region.

Despite their ideological differences, Graham and Paul generally have taken a similar approach to dealing with Trump. They were very anti-Trump when they ran against him for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. Paul called Trump an “orange-faced windbag” while Graham dubbed the businessman and reality TV star a “jackass” and a “kook.”

Trump repaid in kind. “He gave out one guy’s phone number and called the other guy a midget,” recalled Republican strategist Ford O’Connell. “If we nominate Trump,” Graham predicted during the campaign, “we will get destroyed … and we will deserve it.”

“You’ve got to understand how Paul and Graham went from Never Trumpers to people who have cracked the Trump matrix and have his ear,” said O’Connell. “When you disagree with a Trump position outside of your core issues, rather than running to CNN or MSNBC or to the first available mic to share your disgust, you keep your mouth shut, period. And when you agree with a Trump position outside of your core issues, you cheer on his position louder than he does and you sprint to a Trump-friendly media outlet and ring a cowbell as loud as you can.”

That’s how the two senators became frequent golfing buddies with the president despite frequently disagreeing with him.

Read more from W. James Antle III at the Washington Examiner

The Iowa caucuses could spell the end of the line for several presidential candidates.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum are the likeliest to pack up if the former Iowa caucus winners have a disappointing finish on Monday.

Iowa could also deal Ben Carson, Rand Paul and Carly Fiorina a crucial blow if they fail to outperform their spot at the polls. But most experts believe they’ll hang on with enough financial resources to pray for a backup plan. 

For Huckabee and Santorum, it’s a matter of money and poor polling.

Both candidates pegged their entire campaign strategy on Iowa, holding the top two spots for number of campaign events there, according to the Des Moines Register. But Huckabee hasn’t hit more than 4 percent in an Iowa poll since November, while Santorum hasn’t done so since July.

The Iowa results could be detrimental to their already lagging fundraising, hastening the need for a departure.

But some Republican strategists say that all of the candidates will wait it out regardless of their Iowa finishes and will continue at least until the Feb. 9 New Hampshire primary, or even through the so-called SEC primary on March 1 to see if their messages resonate in the swing of Southern states.

“I think just about everyone will stay in through New Hampshire because everyone wants to knows how you play with evangelicals in Iowa and how you play with more moderate, mainstream voters in New Hampshire,” Ford O’Connell, a GOP strategist who worked on John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign.

Read more from Ben Kamisar and Lisa Hagen at The Hill

For Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders, a key step in winning the Iowa primary is getting college kids out to caucus.

This year is the first time public colleges in Iowa will be in session during the caucuses in two presidential cycles, which means there’s a big, concentrated pool of students who are potential caucus goers, including some out-of-state students who qualify to register.

With Sanders hoping to pull off a narrow victory Monday in the Hawkeye State, getting these students out to caucus for him could be a make it or break it moment.

On the Republican side, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul also has had a steady ground game trying to engage students and get them out to caucus.

According to Cliff Maloney, Paul’s national youth director, the campaign has 25 Students for Rand chapters throughout Iowa that are “executing a full-throttle student get out the vote operation to capitalize on all of the ground work we have done since April.” The campaign has a goal of turning out 10,000 students the night of the caucuses to support Paul.

“It’s really hard to get 10,000 students out there,” said Ford O’Connell, former John McCain adviser and veteran campaign strategist. “We are looking at maybe 133,000 people turning out to the caucus. But if you are asking kids 18-to-24 to sit through a long night to caucus, 10,000 is a lot; you aren’t asking for that from people in New Hampshire, who just pull a lever. It’s asking a lot of commitment and students might not have the patience.”

Read more from Miranda Green at Scripps Media

The last Republican debate before the Iowa caucuses was most notable for who was absent: Donald Trump, who kept his vow not to appear in the Fox News debate that included anchor Megyn Kelly. 

Even as he was absent from the stage in Des Moines and holding a rally of his own Thursday night, Trump had an impact. That was the consensus among a group of neutral observers I spoke to shortly after the debate concluded.

Another GOP consultant with no candidate in the race, Ford O’Connell, agreed.

“Trump was the debate winner precisely because Cruz was in the hot seat and Trump didn't have much to gain but potentially had much to lose by participating,” O’Connell told me. “Of those who appeared on the debate stage and who are currently in contention for the nomination, Rubio came out ahead. It's so much that Rubio won as no one else within striking distance of the nomination turned in such a standout performance that it matters at this juncture.”

O’Connell added that “without Trump on the stage, this debate was an opportunity for Cruz and Rubio to take control. Neither brought their A game and both got tripped up in the immigration quagmire.

“Jeb Bush and Rand Paul definitely turned in their best debate performances, but I'm not sure it will have a meaning long-term impact, given their meager standings in the polls. For Cruz, it was simply a missed opportunity that could cost him in Iowa.”

Read more from John Gizzi at Newsmax

While many of his Republican rivals are publicly calling for stronger military action against the Islamic State following last Friday's terror attacks in Paris, GOP presidential hopeful Rand Paul has been distinctly careful to react.

The Kentucky senator was one of six GOP candidates to address voters in Orlando, Fla., Saturday at the 2015 Sunshine Summit, but the only White House hopeful to steer clear of addressing the tragedy in Paris at length.

Veteran campaign strategist Ford O'Connell says Paul is stuck "walking a tightrope because if he starts advocating a more muscular foreign policy, his libertarian supporters will abandon him."

"He really cannot go out and say anything really unless the dust has settled," O'Connell told the Washington Examiner.

"He's going to try to stonewall for as long as possible," the former McCain-Palin adviser said, adding that Paul is likely to "find himself left out of the conversation whether by choice or not."

O'Connell continued, "This is literally just not his cycle. If there is another attack or the entire conversation shifts to foreign policy, he's going to find himself in a lot of trouble."

Read more from Gabby Morrongiello at The Washington Examiner

Republican establishment candidates face a new challenge in Wednesday night’s second GOP presidential debate: how to capture the excitement of primary voters that is now squarely behind the outsiders.

Meanwhile, front-runner Donald Trump, second-place Ben Carson and rising star Carly Fiorina have to show they could lead the country.

Here’s a look at what Republicans say each candidate needs to do for a successful showing Wednesday at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library.

Donald Trump

Republicans say the billionaire businessman will need to conjure all of his skills as a supremely confident showman and entertainer to handle the increased scrutiny and attacks likely headed his way.

However, many Republicans say he also needs to display a strong grasp of policy while laying out a vision for the country that goes beyond the insistence that he’ll “make America great again” by “winning” at everything.

Of course, the normal rules don’t seem to apply to Trump, who led the RealClearPolitics average of polls on Tuesday with 30 percent support.

“I’m not sure he needs to do anything other than continue to be the dominant alpha male,” said GOP strategist Ford O’Connell. “It’s worked for him so far.”

Mike Huckabee, Chris Christie and Rand Paul

Paul has been “completely marginalized,” O’Connell said. In a move that has doomed other desperate candidates, the Kentucky senator is committed to taking on Trump. Republicans say his bigger focus should be to re-energize a libertarian base that seems to have cooled on his candidacy.

Read more from Jonathan Easley at The Hill

Why didn’t Ted Cruz (or Rand Paul or Rick Santorum) know that campaign donor Earl Holt III is the president of the Council of Conservative Citizens, a white supremacist organization?

That is one of many questions, following the revelation that all three Republican candidates for president – and many other GOP politicians, dating back at least to 2004 – accepted donations from Mr. Holt. The British newspaper the Guardian broke the story Sunday.

Holt’s racist writings came to light following last week’s massacre at a historic black church in Charleston, S.C. The alleged shooter, Dylann Roof, was apparently influenced by Holt. A website registered to Mr. Roof contained a manifesto crediting the Council of Conservative Citizens for the author’s knowledge of “brutal black-on-white murders.”

Which goes back to the donations – and how the Republican Party, already struggling to attract minority voters, can overcome this public-relations blow.

For now, though, campaigns may have to step up their game in going through donor lists and checking for potentially problematic names. The use of guilt-by-association can be a powerful campaign tool, and candidates usually want to expunge controversial people from their midst as quickly as possible. 

“They’re going to have to at least look through their donations, particularly those running for president, to make sure there aren’t more items like this,” says Republican strategist Ford O’Connell. “This is a very time intensive process. It’s not, ‘Let me hit "find" on a Word document.’ ”

But even when and if all the Holt money is disposed of – including donations to Bush-Cheney ’04 and 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney – the Republicans’ challenge on racial matters is far from over.

“It’s a big challenge, because the media narrative is that this is the party of old white men, and it’s something they’re trying to get rid of. With that come connotations of racism and sexism,” says Mr. O’Connell. “Even when it’s not true, it still sticks to them.”

Read more from Linda Feldmann at The Christian Science Monitor

Republicans believe they have an opportunity to nudge their support up among black voters in the 2016 presidential election with President Obama not on the ballot — and take a major stride toward winning the White House in the process. 

But they also acknowledge that it won’t be an easy task.

Republicans believe the 2016 Democratic nominee will not be able to produce the spike in black turnout nor the increase in already-overwhelming black support that Obama enjoyed in his two victories.

Even a modest rise in black backing for the GOP could be critical in swing states, independent experts acknowledge.

The last Republican presidential nominee to win 15 percent or more of black support was President Ford in 1976.

And experts warn that major shifts in voting behavior are a long time coming.

But even those who are supportive of Paul’s efforts believe that could be expecting far too much.

“I think what he is doing will eventually have a positive effect,” said GOP strategist Ford O’Connell. “But the fruits of Paul’s work won’t be realized for two or three election cycles.”

Still, while a sea change in the black vote might be too much for Republicans to hope for, party strategists believe that even the most basic considerations could help.

“Republicans need to pay attention to rhetoric and tone,” O’Connell said. “Don’t give people a reason to vote against you.”

Read more from Niall Stanage at The Hill

Sen. Lindsey Graham will formally announce his candidacy for president in his hometown of Central, S.C., on Monday, entering the race with the strongest foreign policy resume of any candidate.

Republican strategists give him little chance of winning, but say he could play the role of kingmaker in South Carolina, a crucial early primary state that — with the exception of 2012 — historically picks the Republican nominee.

Graham’s bid is designed to push the muscular foreign policy approach that he and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), his close ally, have advocated for years.

Ford O’Connell, a GOP strategist who worked on McCain’s 2008 presidential bid, said Graham could become a major player just by virtue of being in the race.

“He has a real chance to be kingmaker in South Carolina, given how crowded this field is. He could also wind up turning this into a Cabinet position, should the Republicans win the White House,” he said.

If Graham pulls out before the South Carolina primary, his endorsement could provide a significant boost to a rival.

O’Connell said South Carolina may wind up as the second-most important primary, given its position ahead of all-important Florida.

“Rubio is putting a lot into South Carolina,” O’Connell said, adding that Rubio wants to perform well in either New Hampshire or South Carolina before squaring off against former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush in the Sunshine State.

Read more from Alexander Bolton at The Hill