Republicans: Supreme Court Won't Toss ObamaCare
Senate Republicans are downplaying the chances that the Supreme Court will strike down ObamaCare as Democrats seek to hammer the GOP on the issue ahead of the elections.
As Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett testifies this week before the Senate Judiciary Committee, Democrats are drilling in on a Republican-backed lawsuit seeking to strike down the Affordable Care Act (ACA) that the high court will hear one week after Election Day.
“No one believes the Supreme Court is going to strike down the Affordable Care Act,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said Monday night during his reelection debate with Democrat Amy McGrath.
Ford O’Connell, a GOP strategist, said Democrats are hyping the lawsuit for political advantage.
“It’s clear that the Democrats are trying to use the [Barrett] hearings as a way to scare the bejeezus out of independent and minority voters,” he said.
Ballooning Ranks Of Uninsured Endanger GOP Health-Care Message
The number of Americans without health insurance has grown steadily under the Trump administration and it’s creating headaches for Republicans who once championed efforts to roll back Obamacare.
Republican leaders Tuesday unveiled a policy platform centered around defeating the coronavirus and improving the economy, with no mention of their long-time pledge to roll back the Affordable Care Act. Democrats, in contrast, are sticking with the message that won them a House majority in 2018: a promise to extend health-insurance coverage to more Americans through the ACA.
Health-care politics this year is almost a polar opposite of 2016, when the U.S. hit an all-time low in the number of people without insurance coverage. Democrats are hoping this shift will win over voters uneasy about being able to afford health care.
These ads are meant to tell voters they can keep the parts of Obamacare they like and also get something less expensive under Republican policies, Ford O’Connell, a GOP strategist who served as an adviser on the late Sen. John McCain’s 2008 presidential bid, said.
“Most voters don’t know what Obamacare entails but they know its most-popular provision, which is preexisting conditions,” O’Connell said.
Surprise ObamaCare Move Puts GOP In Bind
The Trump administration’s surprise call for the courts to strike down ObamaCare upended Capitol Hill on Tuesday, putting Republicans in a bind while giving Democrats new talking points on one of their favorite issues for the 2020 elections.
GOP lawmakers for the most part were reluctant to even talk about the Justice Department’s decision to call for all of ObamaCare to be struck down in a court filing.
If the courts agree with the Justice Department, it would dramatically change the way health care is now delivered in the country. Insurance companies were among those criticizing the administration’s decision.
For the GOP, it shifted the political discussion from a more welcome storyline about the end of special counsel Robert Mueller’s probe to health care — the issue Democrats believe helped them win back the House majority last fall.
Ford O’Connell, a GOP strategist, said that because most legal experts do not think the anti-ObamaCare lawsuit will ultimately succeed, the issue will eventually be moot. At the same time, he acknowledged the administration’s filing creates a positive story for Democrats.
“Internally in their mind they’re breathing a sigh of relief,” O’Connell said of Democrats who can now talk about health care instead of Mueller’s findings.
Republicans In Wait-And-See Mode After Judge Strikes A Blow To Obamacare
The comments from GOP leadership come, however, as some rank-and-file GOP lawmakers say that the ruling puts pressure on Congress to come up with a plan if the ruling striking down the law is ultimately upheld.
The landmark health care law does remain in effect for now, despite a ruling Friday in Texas that said that its individual coverage mandate is unconstitutional and that the rest of the law therefore cannot stand. It's too soon to say what the ruling will mean for the fate of the law since it is expected to face appeal and likely end up before the Supreme Court.
That has left Republicans in Congress, who very much want to make broad legislative changes to the Affordable Care Act, in wait-and-see mode over whether they will be forced into yet another fight over health care as a result of the current legal battle. Lawmakers are also anxious about the potential political fallout of disrupting the health care law that polls show is popular with many Americans.
But while Republican congressional leaders appear to be arguing that at least for now this remains an issue for the courts to resolve, President Donald Trump has seized on the ruling to immediately turn attention to Congress.
Some GOP strategists argue that now the political dynamics of any health care policy could even be more favorable to the Republican Party with Democrats in control of the House.
"This ruling would have been terrible for Republicans if they still controlled the House, but because they don't, they have the opportunity to sit back and focus on message and really this has the potential to give Republicans second life on this issue," GOP strategist Ford O'Connell said.
GOP Lawmakers Distance Themselves From ObamaCare Ruling
Republicans are keeping their distance from a recent court ruling that struck down ObamaCare, as GOP lawmakers are wary of the political backlash that could ensue from scrapping the law.
Many congressional Republicans remain silent after a federal judge on Friday struck down the Affordable Care Act in its entirety. And those who have spoken out largely steered clear of embracing the decision.
The muted response illustrates how the politics of the 2010 health law have shifted, with Democrats successfully hammering Republicans during the 2018 midterms over GOP efforts to weaken the law’s pre-existing condition protections.
The GOP tack is a stark contrast to previous lawsuits against ObamaCare in 2012 and 2015, which were enthusiastically supported by Republicans.
As the Affordable Care Act has become more entrenched, and after Republicans tried to undo much of its coverage expansion last year, the focus has shifted to the benefits that would be taken away if repeal efforts succeeded, such as popular protections for people with pre-existing conditions.
Legal experts in both parties say it is extremely unlikely that the legal challenge to the law will succeed once the ruling is appealed. While the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals, the next stop for the case, is considered a conservative court, some legal experts say the challenge won't go any further, meaning it won't reach the Supreme Court.
Ford O’Connell, a GOP strategist, said he would advise Republicans not to say they support the ruling, but instead talk about the broader issue of reducing health-care costs.
“Regardless of the decision, the costs are still the problem,” he said.
“Why back yourself into a corner” by taking a position on the decision, he added.
GOP Looks To Blunt Dems’ Attacks On Rising Premiums
House Republicans are trying to blunt Democratic attacks over rising ObamaCare premiums, an issue that’s poised to play a key role in the November midterm elections.
The House is planning to vote next week on several GOP-backed health-care measures that supporters say will lower premiums, and passing them could give a boost to some vulnerable Republicans.
Blaming Republicans for rising premiums is a top priority for Democrats heading into the midterms, and Republicans do not want to leave the attacks unanswered.
The bills slated for votes in the House next week include measures expanding health savings accounts, a tax-free way for people to save for health-care costs. Sources say other measures include a repeal of ObamaCare’s medical device tax and a delay of the health insurance tax, which some members of both parties have criticized for driving up premiums.
Democrats say passing these bills doesn’t come anywhere close to repairing the damage Republicans have done, namely repealing ObamaCare’s individual mandate for coverage, a move that the Congressional Budget Office says will raise premiums by 10 percent on average next year.
Ford O’Connell, a GOP strategist, said “it’s clear that the Democrats see an advantage here over voter anxiety over rising health-care costs.”
He advised Republicans to focus instead on criticizing Democratic calls for single-payer health care.
Pro-Obamacare Groups: Supreme Court Nominee May Gut 2010 Law
Democrats say Americans’ access to Obamacare is at risk with the next Supreme Court justice, though some legal experts say they’re exaggerating the issue to try to defeat President Trump’s eventual nominee.
Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer and his troops don’t have the votes to stop Mr. Trump’s nominee, but they are eager to use the pick for political purposes, hoping to rally liberal voters ahead of November’s elections and perhaps make life uncomfortable for several centrist Republicans.
While abortion and the 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling have taken most of the focus, Democrats insist the next justice could play a deciding role in striking down the Affordable Care Act should another case reach the high court, even though the retiring Justice Anthony M. Kennedy had already voted to strike it down.
Protect Our Care, a pro-Obamacare coalition, released a TV ad on Monday driving home that message.
But Justice Kennedy wasn’t part of the 2012 case majority — the key swing vote in the 2012 Obamacare case was Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr., who sided with the court’s four Democratic-appointed members.
Legal experts doubted a new justice will change that.
Mr. Schumer says Democrats can’t take any chances. The specific question around severability at this juncture in Obamacare’s history hasn’t been tested — so in his view, the chief justice’s ultimate position is as an open question.
His strategy is also just Politics 101 — much as immigration is animating the GOP base, Democrats are fired up over health care heading into November’s elections.
“He is, without question, trying to pull every lever to fire up the Democratic base ahead of the midterm,” said GOP strategist Ford O’Connell. “He’s also, interestingly, trying to turn the heat up on Collins and Murkowski — because if they bless the nominee, this is over.”
Dems Seek To Leverage ObamaCare Fight For Midterms
Democrats are seizing on the Trump administration’s push in court to overturn ObamaCare’s protections for people with pre-existing conditions, hoping to leverage the issue ahead of November’s midterm elections as some Republicans rush to distance themselves from the move.
The Department of Justice’s (DOJ) decision to join a legal battle arguing that one of the most popular parts of ObamaCare should be struck down is being viewed by Democrats as a political gift, with the party apparatus quickly using the issue to attack GOP candidates and rally their base.
Ever since the DOJ joined 20 GOP-led states last week in arguing against the measure, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has been sending out a drumbeat of press releases asking Republican Senate candidates where they stand on the administration’s arguments.
Democrats are also highlighting the fact that Patrick Morrisey, who is challenging Sen. Joe Manchin (D) in West Virginia, and Josh Hawley, who is challenging Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) in Missouri, are two of the Republican state attorneys general who brought the lawsuit against ObamaCare in the first place.
Republican strategist Ford O’Connell noted that the Trump administration’s move to argue against the ObamaCare measure in court could put vulnerable Republican incumbents at risk.
“What McConnell is trying to do is protect his Senate majority, and this issue could put folks in jeopardy like Dean Heller,” O’Connell said, referring to the Republican senator from Nevada.
“One of the top issues that fires up Democrats is health care, and obviously pre-existing conditions is popular with independents,” the GOP strategist added. “It may not be the best time to bring this up.”
GOP In Retreat On ObamaCare
Republicans are retreating from calls to repeal ObamaCare ahead of this year’s midterm elections.
Less than a year after the GOP gave up on its legislative effort to repeal the law, Democrats are going on offense on this issue, attacking Republicans for their votes as they hope to retake the House majority.
ObamaCare’s favorability in polls has improved since the repeal push last year, with more now favoring the law than not. A Kaiser Family Foundation poll in March found that 50 percent of the public favors the law, while 43 percent holds an unfavorable view.
GOP strategist Ford O’Connell said the political winds have shifted on the issue, turning ObamaCare into a subject Democrats want to tout and many Republicans want to duck.
“I don’t think it’s seen as a winning issue,” he said. “It’s also an issue that tends to fire up the Democratic base more so than the Republican base.”
GOP supporters of repeal argue the House is paying for the Senate GOP’s sins.
Health Care Voters Turn Republican Election Strength Into Liability
Seven years after Obamacare crushed Democrats at the ballot box, the party is using health care to launch a revival, saying President Trump and congressional Republicans are paying a price for their fumbled repeal effort and will sink further next year.
Voters in Maine last week opted into Medicaid expansion, a key plank of the 2010 law, and Virginia voters pointed to health care as they swatted aside Mr. Trump’s endorsement of the Republican candidate for governor and chose Democrats up and down the ballot.
Meanwhile, Obamacare is polling better than ever, enrollments are outpacing last year’s and progressive groups are plotting to turn the fight over Obamacare into electoral wins, blanketing social media and selling $25 T-shirts and $15 coffee mugs to anyone who pledges to be a “Health Care Voter.”
It’s a major turnabout from 2010, when President Obama’s heavy mandates and D.C.-centric reforms sparked talk of “death panels” and a “government takeover” of health care.
Some Republicans say Democrats are boasting much too early.
Virginia has become a reliably blue state over the past decade, and it’s not as susceptible to economic swings because of federal jobs in the northern part of the state, so Mr. Trump’s populist message didn’t resonate as much as in other states, said Republican Party strategist Ford O’Connell.
“Democrats would be wise to not overinterpret what happened last week in the commonwealth,” he said. “Heading into 2018 midterms, overall health care is not the political liability it once was for Democrats. That said, the 2018 Senate map is decidedly pro-Trump and anti-Obamacare.”
Despite a positive Senate map, Mr. O’Connell said, health care might be a liability for some House Republicans next year, particularly in the Northeast, so the party will need a near-perfect replacement to get something through the Senate and fully change the narrative.
