Can Donald Trump Rewrite The Electoral Map For The GOP?
Donald Trump is the GOP delegate leader and has the clearest path to the presidential nomination of any remaining candidate. But does he have an electoral path to 270 in November?
There's a basic math problem for any Republican nominee.
In every one of the past six presidential elections, Democrats have won states that add up to about 240 electoral votes — pretty close to the majority needed to win.
Republicans have won about 103 electoral votes in each of the past six elections, so there's a big hill to climb. Any GOP nominee has little room for error and would have to win all the big battleground states — Ohio, Florida, Virginia — or else find some blue states they can flip to red.
That alternative route is what the controversial real estate magnate says he can bring to the table this fall. Trump claims he is bringing in so many new voters to the Republican fold that he can win traditionally blue states, like New Jersey, Michigan or even New York.
But there were contrarian voices. Even before Trump began his march, some GOP strategists were saying minority outreach is crucial in the long run but not necessarily right away.
"If we are not going to do that, there is a way to win the presidential election by goosing the white vote. The sky is not yet falling. We are on the brink, but we are not there yet," said GOP strategist Ford O'Connell.
Trump, with his hard-line stands on trade and immigration, might be just the candidate to eke out one more electoral college win thanks to a largely white vote.
"Trump could make the map larger. Because of where he's standing with white voters right now, he would have the Democrats on their heels particularly in the industrial Midwest," predicted O'Connell.
Two Charts That Show How John Boehner Had An Impossible Job
There's a great irony to John Boehner's resignation — once upon a time, he was involved in an attempt to oust a speaker himself. The official bio on the speaker's website puts it this way: he was, back in the day, "a reformer who took on the establishment."
But when one becomes speaker, one becomes, by definition, part of the establishment. And these days, the conservative base just doesn't like the establishment.
Here's another irony: Boehner has become more conservative over the last 25 years — and the Ohio Republican remains more conservative than the average GOP congressman. But he hasn't kept pace with the hard-liners, and that's important in this era of record polarization.
Those are two big reasons Boehner's job as speaker was such a struggle. Let's examine:
1. Voters (Republicans especially) really don't trust Washington
Americans have grown increasingly distrustful of government in the last few decades, and the feeling is particularly strong among Republicans, according to data from the Pew Research Center.
Long story short, public distrust of government translated into elected officials distrusting establishment figures, said Republican strategist Ford O'Connell. Outsiders distrusted the long-time leaders, and those leaders suffered for it.
"They're elected to represent your views. ... And a lot of Republicans just did not feel [lawmakers] were making the progress that they should," O'Connell said. "Boehner was the symbol of that inaction."
Jeb Bush Is Suddenly Attacking Trump. Here's Why That Matters
Jeb Bush isn't pulling punches anymore when it comes to Donald Trump.
The former Florida governor has delicately danced around the billionaire businessman in the 2016 presidential primary so far. But the gloves came off this week when Bush called out Trump as a closet Democrat. He was trying to stunt Trump's rise while attempting to recover his own political mojo.
"What Jeb is desperately trying to do is find his swagger right now," GOP strategist Ford O'Connell said. "The knock against Jeb is that he's low voltage and not willing to fight. The best way to shake those perceptions it to engage against the person who is in the media on a 24/7 loop."
O'Connell agreed. He pointed out that even if this new approach is one that's uncomfortable for Bush, it's necessary.
"In a lot of elections, being the studious one would have worked," he said, "but Trump has flipped the script."
Who's In, Who's Out: Selection Day For The GOP Presidential Debate
The final polls are in and the stage is set for Thursday night's first Republican presidential debate.
Those who made the cut, according to Fox News: businessman Donald Trump, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, neurosurgeon Ben Carson, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
Relegated to an earlier debate Thursday evening: Texas Gov. Rick Perry, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, former New York Gov. George Pataki and former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore.
The choice on who to include was a tough one for Fox, which had to decide exactly how to fit so many candidates on stage amid a ballooning field.
Fox's ultimate decision was to base who made the main debate stage in Cleveland on Thursday night at 9 p.m. ET on five of the most recent national polls that met their standards. Surveys from Bloomberg, CBS News, Fox News, Quinnipiac University and Monmouth University were averaged.
"It's 'must-see TV,' but the 'must-see' starts with Trump," said Republican strategist Ford O'Connell. "Is he going to be a statesman or is he going to be an outspoken bomb thrower? Who knows."
Both O'Connell and Bonjean said the other top candidates, like Bush and Walker, would be wise to avoid taking on Trump directly, since they have nothing to gain and more to lose by doing so. But other candidates who need a surge of momentum might benefit from some direct attacks.
"He's got to be just livid," O'Connell said. "It's unfortunate for Rick because this time around, it's hard to make a first impression the second time."
Most of Donald Trump's Political Money Went To Democrats — Until 5 Years Ago
"Well, if I ever ran for office, I'd do better as a Democrat than as a Republican," Donald Trump told Playboy in 1990. "And that's not because I'd be more liberal, because I'm conservative. But the working guy would elect me. He likes me."
It turns out that even The Donald can't predict the future — after all, 25 years after that comment, he's mounting a strong early push for the Republican presidential nomination. And while he framed himself as a conservative back then, his sympathies and political views have been all over the map during the last 25 years. Only in the last few years has he seemed to find some cohesive ground in what he thinks and whom he supports.
His political donations provide an objective look at just how big this change has been: since 1989, donations in Donald Trump's name have totaled around $1.4 million (adjusted for inflation) to national-level parties, candidates, and other committees. Around two-thirds of that has gone to Republican groups and candidates, according to an NPR analysis of data from the Center for Responsive Politics. However, Trump's decisive tilt toward giving to Republicans has only come in the last few years.
So why haven't voters punished Trump for this? How is the man leading in several GOP polls also among the least consistent conservatives in the race?
But for now, that's tough to do, because Trump's strategy is to spit out provocative statements, rapid-fire, whipping his supporters into a frenzy, said another GOP strategist.
"What he does is he takes page six tabloid tactics to presidential politics and not only do his opponents not know what to do with him; neither does the media," said Ford O'Connell.
O'Connell pointed to Trump's claim that veterans are being treated worse than illegal immigrants — a comparison that O'Connell said is not completely logical but manages to link together two things that infuriate some voters.
"What he does is he throws that word salad out there, and the voter goes gaga," O'Connell adds. "And before you can even break that down for the reader or the news anchor, he then moves on to something else. He's such a whirling dervish of stuff that you just don't know which way to go."
Amid that word salad that O'Connell is talking about, Trump has found time to shrug off criticisms of his past donations, defending them as a business necessity: "I am a businessman," Trump told conservative talk radio host Howie Carr recently, as reported by Buzzfeed. "And when, you know, a speaker of the House or head of the Senate or, you know, people call, you know, I generally speak. As a businessman, you wanna be friendly with everybody."
Donald Trump Could Bump GOP Veterans Off Debate Stage
Donald Trump quickly earned the scorn of many veterans' groups this weekend with his controversial comments about Sen. John McCain's military service.
But the irony is that the unpredictable Trump is still likely to make it into the Fox News debate next month. And if he does, he will quite possibly bump off the stage one of the only two Republican candidates who are military veterans: former Texas Gov. Rick Perry. The other veteran, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, is not close to the threshold for inclusion, but having neither Graham nor Perry on stage is sure to be an issue.
According to the Washington Post's most recent calculations, Perry just barely makes the cut for the Aug. 6 debate; the candidates on stage will be the top 10 from an average of the five latest national polls. Last week, Perry ranked 11th and looked like he would miss the debate, while Graham is further down. New polls are being released that could change that formula, but Perry is on the bubble.
The potential slight to the two Air Force veterans also comes at a time when national security is a big issue among voters. Now some Republicans are worrying about denying the vets' voice while giving Trump his greatest megaphone yet.
"It has the potential to become a sideshow on an important issue for Republican voters," said GOP strategist Ford O'Connell, who worked on McCain's 2008 campaign for president. "Graham and Perry pretty much stay above the fray. With Trump, he's just so unpredictable and is running an entire campaign on emotion."
The Race For President Really Begins This Week
Mark this down as the week the race for president begins in earnest.
Hillary Clinton's relaunch is a go. Jeb Bush is officially off the sidelines. And the crowded GOP field now includes 11 candidates, while Democrats have four hopefuls in the race.
For Republicans especially, the pressure is on to make the most of their nascent campaigns to make it into the first presidential debate, which is a mere 52 days away on Aug. 6 in Cleveland.
"Everyone's starting their engines and deciding they're going to have to make this push now," said national GOP strategist Ford O'Connell.
Monday, all eyes were on Bush, as he officially launched his presidential campaign. Though he was one of the first to confirm in December he was "actively exploring" a bid — and he has so many establishment advantages of money and organization — his unofficial campaigning over the past few months has been unable to put any space between him and the rest of the field. He hopes his official campaign announcement can be something of a reset.
While the past two nominating cycles have seen the GOP establishment favorite eventually take the nomination, strategists warn that this cycle there's now no clear front-runner.
"He's the one with the hardest task," said Ford O'Connell, who worked for the Arizona senator's 2008 campaign. "Unlike previous establishment folks like [John] McCain and [Mitt] Romney, the one thing he faces they didn't is a very challenging field."
"A lot of people don't understand that running for president looks real easy from the cheap seats but it's a lot different from the ground," said O'Connell.
'Religious Nones' Are Growing Quickly. Should Republicans Worry?
Jenny Schulz isn't religious.
Schulz is not alone. She is part of a growing group of American adults who do not identify with any religion. More than one-in-five American adults say so now, the highest in U.S. history. They are being identified as the religious "nones," so called for their lack of religious affiliation. As they grow in size, they are also gaining political power.
Those "nones" consist of atheists, agnostics, and people who simply say they subscribe to no religion in particular. Altogether, they make up nearly 23 percent of the adult population, according to Pew.
That's more than than Catholics, and nearly as many as evangelicals, at 25.4 percent, according to the most recent Pew Religious Landscape Survey. Between just 2007 and 2014, the adult population of "nones" skyrocketed by 52 percent, to nearly 56 million. And that growth makes the "nones" one of the biggest, but least-noticed, stories in American politics, Smith said.
But even with all of the public displays of religion, you can already see politicians playing to a less religious electorate. Republicans, who fare poorly among the "nones," are subtly tailoring their messages for an increasingly secular nation.
"You're already seeing Republicans, in particular, take this into account, and you're seeing it with gay marriage," said Ford O'Connell, a Republican strategist who worked for the McCain-Palin campaign in 2008, chair of CivicForumPAC, managing director of Civic Forum Strategies and author of Hail Mary: The 10-Step Playbook for Republican Recovery. "What you're starting to see is Republicans significantly changing their tone and rhetoric. ... For example, on gay marriage — they're couching it as 'religious liberty,' which sounds less divisive."
"The real question for the Republican Party is will this trend continue and will it continue at this rate?" O'Connell said. "I can see them changing their views on not so much abortion but other related issues [like same-sex marriage] by 2024."
Why 2024? Because that's when today's millennials will be entering middle age, replacing today's Gen-Xers and baby boomers. As millennials marry, settle down and have kids — things they're doing later than their parents — he thinks there's a possibility they will shift rightward. The GOP does better among married women than single women, he points out (though his logic assumes that marriage could make a person more conservative, not just that conservative women might be more likely to be married to begin with). And once people marry, he added, more-religious people might end up bringing their less-religious partners into the church.
Here's Why All These Political Cattle Calls Matter
Stop us if you've heard this one before — the vast field of GOP presidential hopefuls is gathering in a critical early state this weekend to give speeches, woo voters and court activists. That's what's been happening nearly every weekend since the beginning of the year, with Republican groups, influencers and politicians each hoping to attract top-tier candidates to their event.
With national Republicans trying to limit debates this year, the multifaceted events have become the new normal for both candidates and the media. On Saturday, both announced and likely GOP candidates will head to Iowa for the next one, where freshman GOP Sen. Joni Ernst will hold her inaugural "Roast and Ride."
So far, there have been at least a dozen different cattle calls since January. And if it feels like there's been a lot of cattle calls this year, maybe that's because there's a lot of cattle. For lesser-known candidates in such a crowded field, the different events offer a chance to try to and catch fire with often little investment or infrastructure needed.
To national observers, the cattle calls have become the new debates and a way for hopefuls, who haven't been getting as much attention, to boost their profile, so they can ultimately make it onto the debate stage later this year.
"A lot of the folks in the field not named [former Florida Gov.] Jeb Bush, [Wisconsin Gov.] Scott Walker, or [Florida Sen.] Marco Rubio, they don't have very high name ID," national GOP strategist Ford O'Connell said. "That's why the cattle calls are taking on an added importance in the way we haven't seen before."
The field will naturally be winnowed down after the first few states vote early next year. But until then, if candidates aren't able to get momentum before the debates, "donors aren't going to open up their wallets," O'Connell said.
That makes their continued performance in such cattle calls all the more important along with building their political operations.
"Everything's been turned on its head, because of the capping of the debates and the calendar," O'Connell warned. "You know if you're not on the first one or two debate stages, it's going to be hard to get past New Hampshire."
Ebola Blame Game Takes The Stage At Midterm Election Debates
First there was ISIS. Now there's Ebola.
The Ebola health crisis is the latest global issue to become a fixture this campaign season, spilling into debates, campaign rhetoric — and even a few ads.
Political arguments about Ebola can roughly be divided into three groups.
Democrats argue that budget-cutting Republicans have deprived the government of the resources it needs to keep Americans safe from the threat of Ebola. That's the argument Democratic Sen. Mark Udall of Colorado made at a recent debate.
His opponent, Rep. Cory Gardner, offers argument No. 2. Republicans are tying the issue to larger questions about President Obama and his competency. Gardner specifically pointed to priorities at the CDC.
Third, some Republicans link the Ebola crisis to border security.
Exchanges like these are playing out in campaigns across the country and in local and cable news interviews.
"It's a terrible thing to say, but fear is a heck of a motivator," says Republican strategist Ford O'Connell.
Even though the elections are just a few weeks away, O'Connell says it's almost impossible for candidates to break into this news cycle unless they're talking about one of two things: ISIS or Ebola.
O'Connell says that strategy has already proven successful for some candidates. Just look at Republican Scott Brown in New Hampshire.
"He started talking about ISIS ... then he started weaving in Ebola, and all of a sudden [Sen.] Jeanne Shaheen's lead was cut in half," O'Connell said. "What's going on here is Republicans are making a national security leadership argument, if you will, and Democrats are making a governing agenda/budgets argument."
