Nationally, Biden holds a 7.8 percent lead over Trump, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average, but in the battleground states that will decide the Electoral College results, his lead is much less secure.

State-level polls, which were wildly off base in 2016, remain suspect: Republicans — and many Democrats — believe that Trump’s voters are refusing to take part in them, or to signal their true intentions if they do.

Here’s a look at the nine battlegrounds that could hand the White House to the Democrats — or give President Trump a second term.

The president won the Sunshine State by 113,000 votes, a 1.2 percent margin, in 2016. To hold it, he’s made eight campaign stops there since September.

While Florida Republicans have out-registered the Democrats in the past four years, the 2020 race will be decided by a growing cohort of Latino voters.

“Many are first- and second-generation Americans who escaped socialist or communist regimes in Cuba and Venezuela,” said Republican consultant Ford O’Connell. “When Trump talks about fighting socialism, he’s talking to them.”

Read more from Mary Kay Linge at the New York Post

GOP strategist Ford O'Connell reacts.

Watch the video at Fox News

President Donald Trump on Wednesday night criticized the House Democratic women known as “the squad,” zeroing in on Rep. Ilhan Omar of Minnesota as his supporters at a rally in Greenville, North Carolina, chanted “Send her back!”

He railed against the members of “the squad” — freshman Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, Ayanna S. Pressley of Massachusetts, Ilhan Omarof Minnesota and Rashida Tlaib of Michigan — calling them “left-wing ideologues” and alleging they “want to demolish our Constitution” and erode “the values that built this … country.”

Ford O’Connell, a GOP strategist and adjunct professor at The George Washington University, said the president and his top campaign staffers have been looking for a way to bring the “squad” into the 2020 campaign. When they traded barbs last week with Speaker Nancy Pelosi, O’Connell said Trump saw his chance and pounced.

As he seeks a second term, Trump wants to portray the Democratic Party into one sliding toward socialism and run by progressive lawmakers like the “squad” members. O’Connell and other GOP operatives expect the four Democratic congresswomen will remain a key focus of Trump’s, at least until the party formally picks a presidential nominee next summer.

A long list of House Democrats joined Republicans earlier in the day in stopping a resolution calling for Trump’s impeachment, 332-95 (Democratic Rep. Peter A. DeFazio of Oregon voted “present”). Trump used the vote to fire up the crowd in Greenville.

Trump won North Carolina by 4 points over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Read more from John T Bennett at Roll Call

Many Americans are focusing on the 2020 presidential but the Senate races could be more important as Republican control is up for grabs. The party is seeking to hold onto its slim majority with 12 key seats being tested in this cycle.

The math seems to favor the Democrats. Twenty-two Republican seats are among the 34 up for re-election next year; 12 of those slots are in key states. If President Donald Trump loses re-election, Democrats need to flip only three seats to regain the Senate. If Trump wins, the party needs four.

With Trump as president and Democrats holding onto the House, and regaining the Senate, they are sure to stymie his agenda. But if a Democrat wins the White House — and the party controls both congressional chambers — they will undo Trump's record and push through their own legislative programs.

In many ways, the battle for control of the Senate is more important than for the White House, Republican strategist Ford O'Connell tells Newsmax.

"Essentially, Mitch McConnell is the last line of defense against socialism," he says, referring to the Kentucky Republican and Senate majority leader, who is also up for re-election next year.

"You block socialism if Trump wins," O'Connell adds. "If Trump loses, but McConnell's still in power, you still block socialism.

"It's an if-then: Trump helps McConnell keep the Senate. But if Trump goes down, then McConnell's got trouble."

Two other political observers, however, say 2020 will be a "top-down" contest, with the party winning the White House also taking Congress.

O'Connell tells Newsmax: "In Alabama, the Republicans should win unless [Roy] Moore's the nominee. Doug Jones is going to be out.

"A bad nominee can hurt you more than a good nominee can help you."

Read more from Todd Beamon at Newsmax

A county Republican headquarters in Hillsborough, N.C., was firebombed overnight Saturday, an attack that a party official called “political terrorism” — just the latest attack on the GOP in an increasingly ugly campaign season.

Police said a bottle of flammable liquid was thrown through the front window of the office in Hillsborough, a town in Orange County near Raleigh.

“Nazi Republicans get out of town or else” was spray painted on the side of an adjacent building.

In Orange County, home to the University of North Carolina in nearby Chapel Hill, Democrats and independents outnumber Republicans 5 to 1.

“This is exactly how nasty this election has become,” GOP operative Ford O’Connell said. “The Democrats want to make it look like if Donald Trump wins, apocalypse is upon us.”

He added the Democrats “aren’t exactly condemning it.”

O’Connell said voter fraud fears — often downplayed by Democrats — are a legitimate concern.

“We check less than 1 percent of all votes cast. All you need is 250,000 votes spread out over four or five states and that’s going to decide who the next president of the United States is.

“He’s spotlighting a real issue, while simultaneously trying to fire up his base because he’s had a rough three weeks,” O’Connell said about Trump.

Read more from Jack Encarnacao at the Boston Herald

Hurricane Matthew’s wrath may have a major impact on the presidential race as the powerful storm zeroes in on the key battleground state of Florida and forces both Hillary Clinton’s and Donald Trump’s campaigns to refocus with just days to go before Sunday night’s critical debate.

“Florida is always close, and every candidate is going to look for every angle to win,” Republican strategist Ford O’Connell said.

But the deadly Category 4 hurricane presents a double-edged sword to the candidates, providing them with an opportunity to look presidential during a crisis situation but also presenting the perilous possibility of appearing to capitalize on a tragedy that places the homes, businesses and lives of millions of Americans in danger.

But O’Connell said he expects Trump to travel to Florida and other areas affected by the storm either before the debate or immediately after — similar to the trip he took to flood-ravaged Louisiana in August when he beat both Clinton and Obama to the region.

“If anybody was going to try it before the debate, it would be Trump,” O’Connell said.

Read more from Kim Atkins at the Boston Herald

Donald Trump’s endorsement of Rep. Renee Ellmers in North Carolina sent shock waves through the likely GOPpresidential nominee’s supporters over the weekend, stoking new fears about his political reliability after the first person he backed has a record diametrically opposed to him on immigration.

Mrs. Ellmers has been one of the House GOP’s staunchest supporters of legalizing illegal immigrants, and voted against Republicans’ efforts last year to stop President Obama’s deportation amnesty.

Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist, said Mr. Trump’s move may look odd on its face, but strategically it makes sense: Many of the anti-Ellmers groups, such as the conservative Club for Growth, were already opposed to Mr. Trump, so his endorsement doesn’t cost him anything there.

And besides, Mr. Trump gets to show loyalty to a embattled congresswoman, at a time when he’s looking to connect with female voters, Mr. O’Connell said.

“Donald Trump is looking at this from a national perspective and right now he needs to get as many friends on board as possible, even ones he may disagree with,” the strategist said.

Read more from Stephen Dinan at The Washington Times

The Hill asked a number of commentators to predict what happens in today's Republican and Democratic primaries. Here's what they had to say.

Ford O'Connell

Winners: Trump and Kasich

Super Tuesday 2.0 is likely to be a very good day for Trump, and it could be a defining moment in the race. Trump will win Florida, North Carolina, Illinois and Missouri, netting his campaign in the neighborhood of 200 delegates out of a possible 367. That said, the main event is Ohio. Fortunately for the anti-Trump forces, Kasich will eke out a win in this winner-take-all state.

That leaves Trump as still the best-positioned candidate to secure the 1,237 delegates needed for the nomination, but to accomplish that he will have to win roughly 60 percent of the remaining delegates — a high bar, but certainly not impossible. Taking a step back and looking at the delegate math, a contested convention remains a 50/50 proposition.

O'Connell is the chairman of CivicForumPAC, worked on John McCain's 2008 presidential campaign and is author of the book "Hail Mary: The 10-Step Playbook for Republican Recovery."

Read more at The Hill

Spoiler alert: As both Democrats Republicans calculate their odds of a Senate majority, several third party candidates are complicating their math. 

Popular dissatisfaction with both parties — and bitter campaigns that are driving up candidates’ negatives on both sides — have helped boost third-party candidates in a number of states into the high single digits.

It’s not that common that third-party candidates can sway an election, and they often fare much better in early polls than on election day as “protest voters” come home to the major parties or stay home. 

But there are precedents.

National Democrats quietly sent mailers boosting Montana Libertarian Senate candidate Dan Cox in 2012. He pulled nearly seven percent of the vote as Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) defeated Rep. Denny Rehberg (R-Mont.) by just four points.

Voters in Virginia’s 2013 gubernatorial election were disgusted with both major-party candidates, especially with Republican Ken Cuccinelli. As a result, libertarian Robert Sarvis took seven percent of the vote, and now-Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) won by less than three points. 

Then-Republican Florida Gov. Charlie Crist’s decision to bolt from the GOP and run as an independent Senate candidate in 2010 badly divided the state’s Democrats, giving now-Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) an easy path to victory.

It’s unclear whether any third-party candidates will throw an election one direction or the other this cycle. But strategists in both parties are keeping an eye on them.

“We're talking about eight or nine races out there that could potentially be within the margin of error,” said GOP strategist Ford O’Connell. “In most cases a third-party candidate is probably not helpful to the Republican Party but there are a few places where it's been a benefit,” 

Here are six races where third-party candidates could have a real impact on the election.

Read more from Cameron Joseph at The Hill

The important lesson from the North Carolina primary is that the GOP needs to find "the most electable candidate" they can, because it is very difficult to defeat an incumbent, says Republican strategist Ford O'Connell. 

"What most people don't understand is an incumbent, even as vulnerable as Kay Hagan, always has the upper hand," O'Connell told J.D. Hayworth on "America's Forum" on Newsmax TV. 

North Carolina state House Speaker Thom Tillis won the Republican Senate primary against tea party favorite Greg Brannon. Tillis will challenge Hagan in the November midterm elections. 

Many are touting the primary as a win for the Republican establishment. 

"What I'm concerned about here is that if Thom Tillis should lose to Kay Hagan, we're going to see [people say], "oh, I told you so, we should've gone with Greg Brannon, and I don't think the people realize how hard it is to unseat an incumbent in the general election," O'Connell said Wednesday.

Even though it is important for the GOP to find electable candidates, it is also important that it not ignore the grassroots, O'Connell says. 

"I would like to see the GOP establishment listen to the grassroots more because . . . the Republican Party has a lot of diverse wings to it, and if you can't keep the party together and the base together, then you're not going to win overall," he added. "A party without a base is not a party."

The Washington Post recently gave Republicans an 82 percent chance of taking the Senate in November, but the GOP analyst says that while the odds appear to be in the Republicans' favor, there are still a lot of variables that make such a prediction a bit premature. 

Read more from  Courtney Coren at Newsmax.com