Stocks Tank As Trade Deficit Reaches 10-Year Highs
The U.S. trade deficit grew to a 10-year high Thursday as self-proclaimed “tariff man” President Donald Trump continued to place his trade war with China at the center of his administration’s economic platform.
“When people or countries come in to raid the great wealth of our Nation, I want them to pay for the privilege of doing so. It will always be the best way to max out our economic power. We are right now taking in $billions in Tariffs. MAKE AMERICA RICH AGAIN,” he tweeted this week.
But trade deficits between the U.S. and China grew to an all-time high in October as imports rose 0.2 percent to $266.5 billion and exports fell 0.1 percent to $211 billion, making it clear that increased tariffs were not making “America rich again.”
The news came as the stock market fell once again Thursday, wiping away nearly all gains in 2018. Earlier this week, the U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted, a sign that typically indicates the economy is set to weaken. In a recent survey by Bloomberg, a vast majority of economists said the U.S. would likely see another recession before the end of 2020.
President Trump, who often takes credit for a thriving stock market and economy, has either blown off recessionary fears or placed the blame on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for raising interest rates.
But he may have more to worry about than he thinks.
“Trump’s biggest worry in 2020 isn’t a particular candidate or ticket, it’s a recession,” said Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist and former McCain-Palin presidential campaign adviser. “Incumbents have won 15 to 4 since 1900, but what the losers all have in common is a recession or major economic event.”
Beto O’Rourke Meets Barack Obama, But Is His 2020 Ambition To Become President Or Joe Biden’s VP?
Beto O’Rourke met with former President Barack Obama in his Washington D.C. offices this November, just four days before Obama publicly commented that O’Rourke was a “very impressive young man” who reminded him of himself. The meeting and subsequent comments fueled speculation that O’Rourke is preparing for a 2020 presidential run.
Less than two weeks after the meeting, former Obama senior adviser Dan Pfeiffer penned an opinion piece comparing Obama and O’Rourke, making the case for the latter's potential ascent to the Democratic nomination. “I have never seen a Senate candidate—including Obama in 2004—inspire the sort of enthusiasm that Beto did in his race,” he wrote, further fueling speculation.
The Washington Post first reported details of the meeting between O’Rourke and Obama on Tuesday, more than three weeks after it took place, and the same day former Vice President Joe Biden called himself “the most qualified person in the country” to be president. Both Obama’s office and O’Rourke’s office declined to comment on the details of the meeting to Newsweek and to the Post.
In a Democratic primary, there isn’t much risk of that. “I don’t see how it hurts to meet with Obama, he’s still the most popular figure in the Democratic party,” Republican strategist Ford O’Connell told Newsweek. “He’s still the leader of the Democratic party as long as Trump is in the White House.”
O’Connell, however, isn’t so sure that Obama was meeting with O’Rourke to discuss the presidency. He thinks Obama had another position in mind.
“Obama could have the biggest sway in helping him become vice president," said O'Connell. "O’Rourke is much more likely to be in the parlor game for vice president.”
News of Obama’s meeting with Tallahassee mayor and failed Florida gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum only fuels O’Connell’s suspicions. “Obama is looking for fresh faces to balance out Joe Biden. He’s doing some legwork for the vice president side, rather than letting horses run on the presidential side.”
Texas ‘Blue Wave’ Could Take Down Ted Cruz And Deal Big Blow To Donald Trump, Polls Indicate
With just three months until the November midterm elections, two polls out of Texas Wednesday showed the gap between Republican Senator Ted Cruz and his opponent Beto O’Rourke narrowing and putting the Democratic representative well within striking distance of the incumbent.
A Quinnipiac poll placed O’Rourke just six points behind Cruz at 49-43 percent, a sizable jump from the 11 point advantage Cruz had at the end of May, the last time the poll was administered. Cruz has an advantage with white male voters, but O’Rourke is leading the field with female and minority populations.
"U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz has a slight, by no means overwhelming, lead," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll. "Congressman Beto O'Rourke has done a good job making the race competitive. With three months until Election Day, he is clearly in contention. A Democratic victory in the Lone Star state would be a serious blow to GOP hopes of keeping their U.S. Senate majority,"
Still, O’Rourke lacks the name recognition that Cruz carries. "O'Rourke makes a good impression on voters, but only about half the Texas electorate has formed an opinion of him. Senator Cruz has a good favorability overall and is the much better known of the two men," explained Brown.
The 2018 Texas Lyceum Poll, also released Wednesday, indicated a much tighter race. The survey had O’Rourke just two points behind Cruz, with a 41-39 percent spread.
“Turning Texas blue has been the great white whale for Democrats,” Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist, told Newsweek earlier this year. “And it will turn blue, but not in 2018. It would take a major meltdown for Cruz to lose. The idea makes for good cocktail conversation, but there’s not much to watch.”
Trump Cheers Republican Senate Candidate Who Has Called An Anti-Semite His Hero
Virginia Republicans voted to nominate a Senate candidate with deep connections to white supremacists and anti-Muslim coalitions Tuesday evening. Corey Stewart, a former gubernatorial candidate, confederate statue defender and praiser of anti-Semites clinched the nomination in a fairly close race. He will now run against incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Kaine in the general election.
President Donald Trump praised the outcome in a tweet Wednesday morning. “Congratulations to Corey Stewart for his great victory for Senator from Virginia,” he wrote. “Now he runs against a total stiff, Tim Kaine, who is weak on crime and borders, and wants to raise your taxes through the roof. Don’t underestimate Corey, a major chance of winning!”
Stewart has called Republican congressional candidate Paul Nehlen his “personal hero.” Nehlen’s campaign has posted anti-Semitic memes, tweeted out a list of Jewish journalists, and promoted a book by neo-Nazi Kevin MacDonald.
A number of white nationalists are running for Republican party bids across the country, but most of them have little to no chance at the actual nomination. Republican strategist Ford O’Connell says that Stewart’s win doesn’t suggest a change in that trend.
“The number one thing when running in a primary is name identification, and Stewart has that from running for governor,” he explained. “In terms of setting a national precedent, you’ve got battles all over the country and people aren’t paying that much attention to the Virginia race.”
“You’d see more uproar on the Republican side if this were a race that Republicans had a fighting chance on,” explained O’Connell. “Republicans nationally won't talk about this and outside of media markets in Washington D.C., Democrats won’t talk about it either.”
Still, Trump’s endorsement of Stewart carries some weight. “Stewart has been a dogged supporter of Trump and the president understands that you have to reward those who have been loyal,” said O’Connell. “The thing with Stewart is that he fires up the base and the more base voters you can turn out the better; maybe Democrats will have to spend some money defending Kaine.”
O’Connell, who worked as an adviser to Senator John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign, says that there is no moral dilemma when it comes to Trump supporting Stewart publicly. “We’re in an era where the rules are out the window—right now both sides are just trying to win,” he said. “Republicans have tried the Romney strategy and it didn’t work, and now they’re just going to try to throw up anything at the wall and see what sticks.”
Will Don Blankenship Do In West Virginia What Roy Moore Did In Alabama?
Republicans have a good chance at taking back a key Senate seat from Democratic incumbent Joe Manchin this year, but they worry a convicted coal baron may stand in their way.
President Donald Trump and Republican leaders are concerned about the West Virginia Senate GOP primary, as new internal polls show ex-con coal boss Don Blankenship, who spent a year in prison for mine safety violations that contributed to an explosion that killed 29 people, is leading the race against party-line Republicans Attorney General Patrick Morrisey and Representative Evan Jenkins.
“We have a three-alarm fire in West Virginia,” Republican strategist Ford O’Connell told Newsweek. O’Connell, who worked on John McCain’s presidential campaign, said he believes that if Blankenship loses the primary this Tuesday, the race is the Republicans' to win.
The situation strikes a similar chord to Roy Moore’s successful Alabama senatorial primary campaign against incumbent Luther Strange and ultimate defeat to Democratic candidate Doug Jones last December. Like Moore, Blankenship has run a bizarre campaign focused on appealing to those who are tired of politics-as-usual by creating a chasm between himself and establishment Republicans.
“Democrats learned this deal with Todd Akin in 2012, and they’re trying to repeat it. If Blankenship wins the Republican nomination, it will take an easy pickup win from the GOP. The race will be over and Democrats will be able to narrow the gap in Senate,” said O'Connell, the Republican strategist.
Both O’Connell and Trippi said this primary split has been a detriment to Republican Senate elections and Democratic House elections, where far-left candidates have been widening the field. “In the Senate, it’s amazing how much more the Democrats are able to put aside their differences,” said O’Connell. “But in the House, Republicans have been able to coordinate primaries very well.”
Impeaching Trump Is Now Being Discussed By Some Republicans, But Will Others Follow?
Two Republican senators said Tuesday that they would support impeachment if President Donald Trump fires special counsel Robert Mueller while he investigates potential Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election. Yet, despite the dramatic ending of Trump's presidency being mooted by Republicans for the first time, there appears little prospect anytime soon of the threat gaining widespread acceptance within the president's party.
Trump ramped up his anti-Mueller rhetoric this week, prompting fears that the president was considering ousting the special counsel. The president tweeted Saturday that “[T]he Mueller probe should never have been started in that there was no collusion and there was no crime. It was based on fraudulent activities and a Fake Dossier paid for by Crooked Hillary and the DNC, and improperly used in FISA COURT for surveillance of my campaign” and called the investigation a “WITCH HUNT!”
Republican senators Lindsey Graham and Jeff Flake, both of whom have leveled criticism against the president before, indicated that firing Mueller would be impeachable conduct. While neither senator represents the heart of the Republican establishment, their words send a message to the president that his party would not unanimously support him.
While Republican rank-and-file would prefer that the president allow Mueller to finish his investigation, “they also recognize gamesmanship of Democrats and never-Trump Republicans by proposing impeachment,” says Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist who worked on Senator John McCain’s presidential campaign.
“Republicans are going to give Trump the leeway to try and discredit and turn public opinion against Mueller because they know that if Democrats win big in midterms, they’ll file impeachment papers.” Midterm elections tend to be base affairs, said O’Connell, “the folks who try to run from the president of either party wind up the ones that get slashed at the ballot.”
Meet Beto O'Rourke, The Pro-Pot Former Punk Guitarist Who Could Beat Ted Cruz And Ignite Blue Wave
U.S. Representative Beto O’Rourke of Texas is a former punk guitarist who curses like a sailor. He’s pro-choice, pro-gun control, pro-pot and pro-immigration, and he’s aiming to take Ted Cruz’s Senate seat in November.
In any other year, the Democratic lawmaker would be a political footnote in deep-red Texas, where no one from his party has won statewide office in more than two decades.
But as Democrats head to the polls in their party's primary Tuesday, they are turning out in record numbers, in part to help make O'Rourke their standard-bearer—a surprising sign that Democratic enthusiasm in the Donald Trump era is sweeping even the most conservative states ahead of the midterm elections.
And, as O'Rourke likes to point out on the campaign trail, he has raised nearly three times as much money as Cruz this year, all without accepting contributions from corporations or political action committees. (He recently returned donations from the American Bankers Association and Vistra Energy.)
Others, however, are much more skeptical. O'Rourke says that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has yet to prioritize his campaign. And state Republicans, as well as some establishment Democrats, say it will take more time for the state's changing demographics to make Texas more competitive.
“Turning Texas blue has been the great white whale for Democrats,” said Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist. “And it will turn blue, but not in 2018. It would take a major meltdown for Cruz to lose. The idea makes for good cocktail conversation, but there’s not much to watch.”
Donald Trump Is Succeeding Where Hillary Clinton Failed—In Uniting Democrats
It’s been a good year for Democrats, and they have one man to thank for their success: President Donald J. Trump.
Even as activists fight over the direction of the party and relitigate the 2016 election, the left is riding high on its first Senate win in ruby-red Alabama in a quarter-century as well as two gubernatorial victories in New Jersey and Virginia. Democrats say single-digit losses in Republican strongholds like Georgia and Kansas also bode well for the strength of their party as it heads into next year's midterm elections.
“Democrats would be making a mistake to think that they’re all set because they won in Alabama,” said Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist and George Washington University professor who worked on the McCain-Palin 2008 presidential campaign. “This was an absurd election, against an alleged child molester.”
Yes, the Republican Party is fractured, he said, but Democrats are also reconciling between the Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton camps. “Both sides are having trouble finding good candidates,” O'Connell said.
Even Republicans found a silver lining in the Moore loss. “The Democrats would have used his views to wrap a noose around Republicans’ necks,” O'Connell said. The Senate looks good for Republicans in 2018, but only if they can avoid running candidates like Moore. “The only question is if Republicans can actually stop their own dumbness,” he said.
Democrats will have to defend 25 Senate seats next year, including 10 in states that Trump won in 2016. In order to take control, they'll need to flip at least two of the eight Republican-held seats up for election.
Hillary Clinton Promises To Fix Obamacare
Before Obamacare, there was Hillarycare. If former secretary of state Hillary Clinton decides to run for president in 2016, Republicans are certain to dredge up her failed attempt to pass health care reform as first lady in the early 1990s.
So it's no surprise that Clinton addressed the issue judiciously and cautiously this week in Florida. She praised the law, which is similar to the universal health care scheme she proposed in her 2008 presidential run. She also said she would be happy to improve it.
"I think we are on the right track in many respects," Clinton told the Health Care Information and Management Systems Society, according to CNN. “But I would be the first to say if things aren’t working then we need people of good faith to come together and make evidence-based changes."
Clinton's comments come as every Democratic politician struggles to neutralize the issue ahead of November's midterm elections. The law was always unpopular, but the botched rollout made matters far worse and Republicans are on the offense in the belief that attacking the law is a vote winner.
Strategists say that rather than entering the debate about what to do with such an electoral liability, Clinton's comments were a smart way to duck a tough issue.
"Hillary Clinton cannot run from the principle of Obamacare. But she does want to portray herself as a no-nonsense problem solver," said Republican Ford O'Connell, who advised Senator John McCain's presidential run in 2008. "She's aiming for the middle ground."
"This is a classic cat-and-mouse game," said O'Connell, noting that besides the small business comment, Clinton demurred when asked to name other fixes. "She's staked out her position. The Republicans have to flesh it out before she really gains some serious momentum."
Is Paul Ryan Playing A Long Game?
Much to everyone’s surprise, the budget deal squeezed past both houses of Congress. But where does that leave Paul Ryan, the Republican who brokered the deal with Democrats?
Last summer, Ryan’s bona fides as a fiscal conservative landed him the vice-presidential spot on Mitt Romney’s ticket. Famous for his spending and entitlement-slashing budgets, Ryan was recruited to energize the conservative base of the GOP.
A year and a half later, with speculation already swirling about who the Republicans will field in the next presidential election, Ryan could find himself on the opposite side of the equation, having sacrificed his well earned reputation for fiscal conservatism on the altar of compromise.
The other top 2016 conservative contenders -- Senators Rand Paul, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz -- have spotted the chance to outflank Ryan on the inside. They have conspicuously refused to back the bipartisan budget agreement Ryan crafted and are poised to vote against it, leaving the Wisconsin congressman all alone on the budget issue.
“For Rubio, Paul and Cruz, this vote is about keeping the powder dry, pure and simple,” said Republican strategist Ford O’Connell. “They are going to have a few more tough votes most likely between now and 2016 and they just want to keep the powder dry.”
This is particularly true in Rubio’s case, O’Connell noted, because Rubio angered the conservative base when earlier this year he worked with Democrats on a comprehensive immigration reform bill.
“He is looking to make himself a problem solver on Capitol Hill,” O’Connell said. “He’s one of the few people, at least in the House, that can really take up that mantle because he’s trusted by both conservatives and members of the establishment in the party.”
