Hypocrisy In 2020 Democrats Targeting Big Tech, Yet Fundraising In Silicon Valley?
Democratic Strategist Christy Setzer and Republican Strategist Ford O'Connell on 2020 Democratic presidential candidates going after big tech yet also fundraising in Silicon Valley and Democrats plans to focus on the tariff impact on voters while campaigning in Iowa.
Tariff threats Drive Wedge Between U.S., Mexico, Amid Talks
The United States continued talks with Mexico on Thursday amid U.S. President Donald Trump's threats to slap tariffs on its southern neighbor. If tariffs take effect, that could impact both economies and drive a wedge between Washington and its third largest trading partner, experts said.
At issue is whether Mexico will step up efforts to stop the flow of undocumented migrants crossing its southern border into the United States. Trump has expressed frustration over growing inflow of illegal immigrants. Last month saw a decade-long high in apprehensions of illegal migrants, with 133,000 detained at the border.
Mexico is also used as a route of entry to the United States by violent criminal gangs from El Salvador, such as the infamous MS-13, while many of Trump's supporters also believe that illegal immigration drives down working class wages and increases competition for blue collar jobs.
Illegal immigration will be one of Trump's major platforms in the 2020 elections, and the president believes Mexico has done very little to mitigate the situation. While Mexico on Thursday vowed to provide 6,000 troops to beef up border security, that may not be enough to satisfy Trump's demands.
The U.S. president has threatened that if Mexico does not take action to stem the tsunami of illegal migration, he will slap a 5 percent tariff on Mexican goods that will grow incrementally if no agreement is reached.
TV news personality and Republican Strategist Ford O'Connell told Xinhua the main problem is that U.S. laws do not reflect the reality on the ground. The vast majority of illegal migrants are from Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras. Many are traveling as families, or claiming to be families.
The laws are designed to stop single men from Mexico, rather than families or children migrating alone. Laws make it difficult to detain such individuals, even if they are lying about being under the age of 18. Authorities often have no choice other than to release them into the United States, where they remain indefinitely.
"Thanks to American laws, the people who come here illegally, the majority will never be deported," O'Connell told Xinhua.
"If people don't ever think they are going to be turned away, why would they ever stop coming?" O'Connell said.
Trump Threatens To Close Border To Mexico
A caravan of 3,000 migrants is moving north through Central America and toward the U.S. southern border — on a collision course with the midterm elections, as yet another factor that could sway voters.
“I must, in the strongest of terms, ask Mexico to stop this onslaught — and if unable to do so I will call up the U.S. Military and CLOSE OUR SOUTHERN BORDER!,” President Trump tweeted yesterday.
A day earlier, he tweeted, “Hard to believe that with thousands of people from South of the Border, walking unimpeded toward our country in the form of large Caravans, that the Democrats won’t approve legislation that will allow laws for the protection of our country. Great Midterm issue for Republicans!”
The thousands of Hondurans are making their way through Guatemala, headed toward Mexico and, if they’re allowed through, plan to head onward to the U.S., as the contentious midterm elections approach Nov. 6.
“Midterm elections are primarily about which party can better turn out its base, and there is no single issue in 2018 that fires up the GOP base like illegal immigration,” GOP analyst Ford O’Connell told the Herald, saying it’s one of a handful of issues that can help the Republicans keep control of the Senate and possibly the House.
US, Canada, Mexico Agree To Replace NAFTA, Bringing Relief To US Workers, Farmers
The United States, Canada, and Mexico agreed to sign a new trade deal to “terminate and replace” the 24-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
President Donald Trump says the new agreement will transform North America into a “manufacturing powerhouse.”
The new trilateral trade pact will be named the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement, or USMCA. Trump called the deal “historic news for our nation and indeed for the world.”
The partners have agreed to stronger rules of origin for autos and automobile parts that exceed those of both the original NAFTA and the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
The new deal has a 16-year lifespan, with a review period after six years, providing more certainty for business investments. According to the White House, the review period gives the United States significant leverage in pushing partners to comply with their obligations.
The steel and aluminum tariffs that the United States imposed on Canada and Mexico will be dealt with separately.
The trading partners now have 60 days to finalize the legal text and sign the agreement.
The USMCA can give Republicans another victory to point to, especially in the heartland and industrial Midwest, according to Ford O’Connell, a political analyst and Republican strategist.
“It certainly is important in the overall calculus for Republicans in their quest to hold the Senate and the House in 2018,” he said.
“But in terms of his political impact with voters, it will be a far more valuable for President Trump in his 2020 re-election bid with voters than it will be for Republicans in 2018.”
Stocks Soar On USMCA Trade Deal
America First Policies senior policy adviser Curtis Ellis, The Weekly Standard deputy managing editor Kelly Jane Torrance, Independent Women’s Forum policy director Hadley Heath Manning and CivicForumPAC Chairman Ford O’Connell on whether President Trump trade deal with Canada and Mexico is a template for future deals.
Trump Puts Mexican President In A Political Vise
Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto is facing tremendous pressure to take a firm stand against President Donald Trump, just a week after the new U.S. leader took office.
Trump is highly unpopular in Mexico, perceived as someone who has repeatedly insulted the country. He has done little to change that sentiment, taking a hard stance on U.S.-Mexico relations.
That's bad news for Peña Nieto, whose political fate is in the balance.
At the center of the controversy is one of Trump's signature campaign pledges, to build a border wall paid for by Mexico.
Payment for the wall has also become a central issue in Mexico, where Trump's demand is seen as an affront to national pride and an irrational demand that the government cannot afford to comply with.
Republican strategist Ford O'Connell said Trump is unlikely to quietly let the issue go.
"The audience for this showdown is not necessarily Mexico and the U.S.," said O'Connell.
"If you listen to Trump carefully, he wants to go after countries with high trade surpluses," he added. "The people watching this are places like China."
Christie’s Mexico Trip May Showcase Split On Immigration
New Jersey Governor Chris Christie arrives in Mexico City tomorrow on a three-day trade mission with a chance to distinguish himself from fellow Republicans on immigration.
The visit, including meetings with Mexico President Enrique Pena Nieto and business leaders, comes as his party wrestles with how to win the Hispanic vote. In 2012, Mitt Romney garnered just 27 percent of the demographic group’s support in his failed presidential bid.
Christie, who has said he’s considering a run for the White House, has an opening to take a stance more sympathetic to Mexican-Americans, said Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist in Washington. Christie in December signed a bill allowing children of undocumented immigrants to pay in-state tuition at New Jersey’s colleges and universities. He told reporters in July that he has “empathy” for unaccompanied children from Central America who are crossing into the U.S.
“What he’d really like to do by the time 2016 comes rolling around is demonstrate that he has pull with Hispanic voters,” said O’Connell, who has worked in the past with Christie political adviser Mike DuHaime. “Immigration is not very popular in a Republican presidential primary, but it’s an issue that you’re going to have to work through if you want to become the nominee and actually win in a general election.”
Read more from Eric Martin and Terrence Dopp at Bloomberg Businessweek
Unauthorized Migration From Mexico At A Standstill
An opportune time for the GOP to push its version of the Dream Act? From Pew Hispanic Center:
The standstill appears to be the result of many factors, including the weakened U.S. job and housing construction markets, heightened border enforcement, a rise in deportations, the growing dangers associated with illegal border crossings, the long-term decline in Mexico’s birth rates and changing economic conditions in Mexico.
This sharp downward trend in net migration has led to the first significant decrease in at least two decades in the number of unauthorized Mexican immigrants living in the U.S.—to 6.1 million in 2011, down from a peak of nearly 7 million in 2007. Over the same period the number of authorized Mexican immigrants rose modestly, from 5.6 million in 2007 to 5.8 million in 2011.
Mexicans now comprise about 58% of the unauthorized immigrants living in the United States. They also account for 30% of all U.S. immigrants. The next largest country of origin for U.S. immigrants, China, accounts for just 5% of the nation’s stock of nearly 40 million immigrants.
Looking back over the entire span of U.S. history, no country has ever sent as many immigrants to this country as Mexico has in the past four decades. However, when measured not in absolute numbers but as a share of the immigrant population at the time, immigration waves from Germany and Ireland in the late 19th century equaled or exceeded the modern wave from Mexico.
