Spoiler alert: As both Democrats Republicans calculate their odds of a Senate majority, several third party candidates are complicating their math. 

Popular dissatisfaction with both parties — and bitter campaigns that are driving up candidates’ negatives on both sides — have helped boost third-party candidates in a number of states into the high single digits.

It’s not that common that third-party candidates can sway an election, and they often fare much better in early polls than on election day as “protest voters” come home to the major parties or stay home. 

But there are precedents.

National Democrats quietly sent mailers boosting Montana Libertarian Senate candidate Dan Cox in 2012. He pulled nearly seven percent of the vote as Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) defeated Rep. Denny Rehberg (R-Mont.) by just four points.

Voters in Virginia’s 2013 gubernatorial election were disgusted with both major-party candidates, especially with Republican Ken Cuccinelli. As a result, libertarian Robert Sarvis took seven percent of the vote, and now-Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) won by less than three points. 

Then-Republican Florida Gov. Charlie Crist’s decision to bolt from the GOP and run as an independent Senate candidate in 2010 badly divided the state’s Democrats, giving now-Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) an easy path to victory.

It’s unclear whether any third-party candidates will throw an election one direction or the other this cycle. But strategists in both parties are keeping an eye on them.

“We're talking about eight or nine races out there that could potentially be within the margin of error,” said GOP strategist Ford O’Connell. “In most cases a third-party candidate is probably not helpful to the Republican Party but there are a few places where it's been a benefit,” 

Here are six races where third-party candidates could have a real impact on the election.

Read more from Cameron Joseph at The Hill

The recent scandals that have plagued the Obama administration have shown President Barack Obama to be either "the most incompetent or the most detached president in the modern era," says GOP strategist Ford O'Connell.

"And unfortunately, this should be worrying a lot of Americans," O'Connell told J.D. Hayworth on "America's Forum" on Newsmax TV. 

Obama has said about a variety of scandals taking place in his administration that he learned about them on television, including the most recent one in which secret wait lists were allegedly kept at several VA hospitals throughout the country to make it look like patients were not waiting more than the required 14-day period, while in some cases they were actually waiting for months. At the VA hospital in Phoenix, 40 patients allegedly died while waiting to see a doctor. 

O'Connell says that the problem stems from how Americans tend to vote because elections have become "a popularity contest, not a competency contest."

But the GOP strategist thinks Americans may be starting to see through the president. 

"It's sad and callous to say about this but in some ways, the VA scandal is a good thing," O'Connell said. "It's sad to see this coming off the back of veterans, but that's what it really takes for a lot of people to open their eyes to what has really been a farce as a presidency."

O'Connell said the VA scandal, like most issues relating to the military, is "a bipartisan issue, and it's really opening up the eyes of the mainstream media and independent fence-sitting voters to the fact that this is systematic failure on the part of the president. It may be time for new management."

Read more from Courtney Coren at Newsmax.com

Republicans on Tuesday will cast votes in the two states where they are most vulnerable heading into November’s elections — Georgia and Kentucky — where primaries could leave the GOP champions bruised as they prepare to face strong female Democrats.

“If the Democrats win in either Kentucky or Georgia, it will be next to impossible for Republicans to take the Senate in 2014,” said Ford O'Connell, a Republican Party strategist. “That is the bottom line.”

Arkansas, Idaho, Oregon and Pennsylvania also have primaries Tuesday that will set the lineups for a series of general election showdowns.

But it’s the two Republican-held Senate seats that are getting the most attention because of the stakes involved and the bitter turn the primaries have taken in the five-way Georgia contest, and the Kentucky battle, which pits top Senate Republican Mitch McConnell against tea party-backed Matt Bevin.

While the Kentucky primary is shaping up as formality, the Republican contest in Georgia is far less certain.

If no one wins 50 percent of the vote Tuesday, it will go to a two-candidate runoff in July.

As it stands, the battle for a spot in a runoff race has boiled down to a three-person contest of Rep. Jack Kingston, deep-pocketed businessman David Perdue and former Secretary of State Karen Handel.

That could be a bad omen for Democrats, as polls show likely Democratic opponent Michelle Nunn was performing better against Reps. Phil Gingrey or Paul C. Broun, who were seen as the most conservative candidates in the race.

But Mrs. Kingston, Mr. Perdue and Mrs. Handel have engaged in an increasingly vicious campaign, which is likely to continue for another 90 days until the July 22 runoff.

“The question will be: Will the next nine weeks be a civil period or one of scorched earth?” Mr. O'Connell said. “If it is scorched earth, then too many open wounds on the eventually GOP victory could give Nunn an opening.”

Read more from Seth McLaughlin at The Washington Times

“He’s the problem,” a strategist said. “He should stay away.”

The strategist, in this case, was a Republican and the year was 2006, when George W. Bush’s approval rating had sagged so low that few GOP candidates on the midterm ballot wanted to be in the same area code. But it could just as easily be Democrats talking about President Obama today.

Two polls this week gave fresh ache to what strategists have been feeling in their guts for some time: that Obama’s tumbling marks are dragging down hopes of retaining Senate control and reclaiming territory in the House.

The numbers—from the Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor and ABC News/Washington Post polls—have given fresh urgency to a question that has been haunting the White House and the Democratic Party for weeks: What do you do with a president who’s being abandoned by voters—particularly independents—in droves?

Unlike four years ago, when Obama was frequently criticized for being disengaged as issues surrounding his economic and legislative agenda were getting Democratic candidates pummeled, the White House has signaled that it will take a more active approach this time, with a revamped internal political operation. The president has made it sound like he doesn’t want to sit on the sidelines, telling a crowd at a fundraiser last month that Democrats paid “a dear price” for being “sleepy” in the 2010 midterms.

But even if Air Force One is fueled up and ready to go, what’s the flight plan?

At the very least, the president is expected to continue raising money nationwide, a task at which he continues to excel—and which is all the more urgent given the recent Supreme Court ruling in McCutcheon v. FEC that made wealthy donors more pivotal than ever. Democrats say that’s the single most critical way he can make a difference, both to help candidates counter attacks from third-party groups and finance GOTV operations.

But beyond that, there are ways in which Obama’s role could be different than Bush’s eight years ago. Then, Bush largely campaigned in friendly states such as Texas and Georgia and avoided battlegrounds. Obama may not be so constrained. He may be the only figure, strategists say, who can drive those to vote who would otherwise stay home.

Sen. Mark Pryor, in a tight battle in Arkansas, is looking for help from the former president, not the current one. For Pryor, “it’s give me Bill Clinton or give me death,” cracks Ford O’Connell, a Republican consultant.

O’Connell says Obama should let Clinton do much of the heavy lifting, particularly in the South, as the ex-president gathers chits for a potential Hillary Clinton run in 2016. “He’s seen as more respected,” O’Connell says.

The most aggressive move, strategists say, would be to send Obama to Atlanta in an effort to get out the black vote for Michelle Nunn, the Democratic Senate candidate in Georgia, or even to Louisville, to try and bolster Alison Lundergan Grimes against Sen. Mitch McConnell.

But those moves carry great risk, says O’Connell, the Republican strategist, by potentially galvanizing Republicans and dragging down two candidates who have taken pains to paint themselves as Washington outsiders. Obama to Kentucky, he says, would elevate McConnell and allow him to boast that it took a president to try and stop him. And should McConnell become the leader of a new Republican Senate, that’s something this president would never live down.

Read more from James Oliphant at NationalJournal.com

There was an audible gasp in the Senate gallery this week when Minority Leader Mitch McConnell voted “aye” to cut off a potential GOP filibuster of critical legislation to raise the $17.2 trillion debt ceiling.

A long-time opponent of raising the nation’s borrowing limit without reining in costs elsewhere in the budget, McConnell, R-Ky., was expected to vote “no,” but instead played a critical role in ensuring its passage.

He’s not only a fiscal conservative, but McConnell is also facing a Tea-Party backed primary opponent, making his support of the legislation not only a surprise, but a potential political risk.

But McConnell's move to push the legislation toward passage probably did more to save his re-election bid than hurt it, at least according to the latest polls.

Republicans are just six seats away from retaking the majority, with many vulnerable Senate Democrats sinking in popularity because of the troubled rollout of the health law.

If Republicans take over the Senate, McConnell is likely to be elected majority leader.

“Obviously they wanted to be uninhibited to the finish line in terms of keeping the focus on Obamacare,” Republican strategist Ford O’Connell told the Examiner. “I think what McConnell did was smart in terms of Republicans winning the Senate in 2014.” 

Read more from Susan Ferrechio at the Washington Examiner

For Mitch McConnell, the top Senate Republican, a vote to end debate over raising the U.S. debt ceiling on Wednesday was much more than a vote to leave Washington before a snowstorm arrived.

It earned him the wrath of his party's vocal and influential right wing, and it could have implications for the Senate minority leader's re-election campaign in Kentucky.

The vote, in which he was joined by 11 other Republican senators, came as McConnell is trying to appeal to conservative voters in Kentucky to fend off a primary challenge from Matt Bevin, a Tea Party-aligned Republican. And it was a sign of defiance against influential outside groups trying to push him further to the political right less than half a year after a government shutdown and the last debt ceiling fight.

"This vote couldn't have come at a worse time for Mitch McConnell," said Republican strategist Ford O'Connell, who advised Republican John McCain's 2008 presidential bid. O'Connell noted that the campaign ahead of the May 20 Kentucky Senate primary was moving into high gear.

Still, independent political groups like the Senate Conservatives Fund are mobilizing supporters to ensure he does not even get past the primary.

"They want Mitch McConnell out of there, but his standing looks pretty good. His biggest worry is Grimes, and this vote doesn't hurt him against her," O'Connell said.

Read more from Gabriel Debenedetti at Reuters