McConnell’s Last Stand: He Wants Medicare, Social Security Cuts To Raise Debt Limit
In case anyone thought things couldn’t get more chaotic on Capitol Hill, Senate Majority Mitch McConnell appears ready to set them straight. McConnell, according to a report first published by CNN, plans to make several major demands of the White House, including changes to Medicare, Social Security, and EPA regulations as his price for raising the nation’s debt limit.
The report from CNN’s Manu Raju complicates the already fraught debate over whether and how to increase the Treasury Department’s ability to borrow the money it needs to pay the nation’s debts. Failure to allow additional borrowing would, at some point in early November, force the United States into default. U.S. government debt is viewed as the safest in the world – the closest thing there is to a risk-free asset. Allowing the government to default on its obligations would send shock waves throughout not just the U.S., but the global economy.
As it is, the Treasury Department hit the debt ceiling months ago, and has been relying on extraordinary measures, like delaying payments into pension funds, in order to pay the government’s bills.
So, what is McConnell thinking? Some analysts believe a combination of factors is in play, including McConnell’s own troubles with a restive right wing, and the sense that for the GOP, it’s now or never in terms of achieving some of its policy goals.
“Yes, a little bit of it is obviously the ghost of John Boehner,” said Republican strategist Ford O’Connell. However, he added, for the past nine months, Republicans have had their largest numerical advantage in Congress in generations, and so far have little to show for it.
“He has the largest number they’ve had since the 1930s,” said O’Connell. “If there was a time to do this it’s between now and 2016. The one thing Republicans don’t want to hear is wait until the next election. It’s a tired hymn.”
Political Divide A Threat To Republican Hopes
The deep divisions within the Republican Party are on full display in the wake of House Speaker John Boehner’s announcement last week that he will resign at the end of October. Couple Boehner’s impending departure with the rise of political outsiders in the Republican presidential race and it’s clear that the divide between establishment Republicans and grassroots conservatives is very much alive and could become a distraction for the party as it approaches the 2016 presidential election.
The split between grassroots conservatives and establishment Republicans is also evident in the presidential race with the rise of non-politician outsiders like Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina and Donald Trump. Trump addressed the issue when he announced details of his tax reform proposal this week in New York. “And you know, people ask, how come Trump is doing so well, and [Ben] Carson and others? How come they are doing [so well]? You know why they are doing well? Because people are tired of political speak. They are tired of that.”
There is little doubt that conservative impatience and anger with the status quo are driving the presidential race, said Republican strategist Ford O’Connell. “Basically, it says that a lot of Republicans feel that Republican leadership in Washington has basically not done enough to push back President Obama’s agenda. And we are not only seeing this in Washington, but we are also seeing the same effect on the presidential campaign trail and that is why we are seeing the outsiders rise.”
Two Charts That Show How John Boehner Had An Impossible Job
There's a great irony to John Boehner's resignation — once upon a time, he was involved in an attempt to oust a speaker himself. The official bio on the speaker's website puts it this way: he was, back in the day, "a reformer who took on the establishment."
But when one becomes speaker, one becomes, by definition, part of the establishment. And these days, the conservative base just doesn't like the establishment.
Here's another irony: Boehner has become more conservative over the last 25 years — and the Ohio Republican remains more conservative than the average GOP congressman. But he hasn't kept pace with the hard-liners, and that's important in this era of record polarization.
Those are two big reasons Boehner's job as speaker was such a struggle. Let's examine:
1. Voters (Republicans especially) really don't trust Washington
Americans have grown increasingly distrustful of government in the last few decades, and the feeling is particularly strong among Republicans, according to data from the Pew Research Center.
Long story short, public distrust of government translated into elected officials distrusting establishment figures, said Republican strategist Ford O'Connell. Outsiders distrusted the long-time leaders, and those leaders suffered for it.
"They're elected to represent your views. ... And a lot of Republicans just did not feel [lawmakers] were making the progress that they should," O'Connell said. "Boehner was the symbol of that inaction."
GOP Prez Hopefuls Cheer Boehner Exit
Gloating conservative GOP presidential contenders celebrated House Speaker John Boehner’s impending resignation with victory laps yesterday, hoping the establishment Republican’s downfall will be the “blood in the water” moment that will energize their campaigns.
Pundits hailed Boehner’s ouster under pressure as victories for anti-establishment conservatives, such as Cruz and real estate mogul Donald Trump, who have tapped the anger and disgust with both parties in Washington.
Citing a new Fox News Channel poll showing 66 percent of Republicans don’t believe their party’s leadership has done its best to block or reverse President Obama’s agenda, GOP operative Ford O’Connell said the news is a victory for Cruz, Trump, Carly Fiorina and Ben Carson.
“They’re all trying to spin it,” O’Connell said of the entire Republican field. “The outsiders are more likely to spin it to their benefit.”
Boehner Departure Could Put 2nd Californian In Top House Spot
Kevin McCarthy, the prematurely gray, 50-year-old former “young gun” Republican from Bakersfield, is heir apparent to become speaker of the House of Representatives with the surprise resignation of embattled Speaker John Boehner of Ohio on Friday.
With Democratic leader and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco showing no sign that she intends to retire anytime soon, the powerful but deeply divided California congressional delegation would have the top two jobs in the “people’s chamber” of Congress should McCarthy win election by his colleagues.
The leadership election is yet to be announced, but presumably will take place before Boehner leaves office in a month. Vicious internal power struggles are expected to roil the leadership even if McCarthy wins the top slot.
A small-business moderate early in his career, McCarthy has moved right with the national GOP since he entered the House in 2007 on issues such as immigration, but never has been closely allied with the party’s fire-breathing conservative wing.
His rise is due in part to his success in recruiting House candidates and raising money. That could potentially earn him loyalty from members who thought nothing of bucking Boehner.
Even so, McCarthy will face the same “antiestablishment feeling that is going throughout the country, particularly among Republican primary voters, that’s being pushed by Donald Trump’s message,” said GOP strategist Ford O’Connell. “It’s this message going on in Republican circles that everyone in politics is lying to you and is bad at their jobs and Republican leaders are the worst of all because they’re elected to represent your views.”
Read more from Carolyn Lochhead at The San Francisco Chronicle
For GOP, First 100 Days Have Been A Learning Process
Nearly 100 days into their new majority, congressional Republicans have had a harder time than they anticipated proving they're ready to govern.
In the past three months, Republicans have sent doomed legislation approving the Keystone XL pipeline to the president, failed to secure votes on a controversial bill aimed at banning abortions after 20 weeks and battled through a standoff over funding to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Republican lawmakers in both chambers were able to pass a budget blueprint, but that, too, was a contentious process that highlighted fractures in the party.
A major bump in the road appeared during the Homeland Security debate, in which Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) found themselves in a stalemate, each waiting for the other to move first.
The ups and downs of the past few months have led even the reliably conservative Wall Street Journal to write a scathing review of the new GOP-controlled Congress.
“For McConnell and Boehner it’s been a learning process," said Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist. "In both cases the leadership realized it had to be much stronger."
Nancy Pelosi Steps Up As House GOP Leaders Stumble
If anyone was in control of the House floor Friday, it was San Francisco Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi, not the Republicans who won full control of Congress in November.
Less than two months into Republican governance, House GOP leaders suffered their most humiliating defeat yet on the House floor in the battle over funding the Department of Homeland Security, thanks in large part to Pelosi’s ability to marshal her shrunken Democratic minority when it counts.
The Republican leadership team, including Speaker John Boehner of Ohio and Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy of Bakersfield, demonstrated a stunning inability to do the same.
“Pelosi and her House lieutenants are bleeding the Republicans dry,” said Ford O’Connell, a GOP political analyst.
“Giving Republicans a one-week reprieve was a stroke of genius,” O’Connell said. “It should earn Democrats some goodwill with the American public,” while leaving Republican leaders a week to devise a new plan to avoid a partial shutdown of the second-largest agency in the federal government.
“Democrats can say to the American people, 'We gave the Republicans one more week to get their ducks in a row because we shouldn’t play politics with Homeland Security,’” GOP analyst O’Connell said. While both parties are playing politics with Homeland Security, “it’s just that the Democrats look better.”
It may not be enough for Pelosi and the Democrats to retake the House in 2016, given the size of the GOP majority, O’Connell said, but it “could have the public questioning Republican leadership” ahead, where a host of thorny issues await.
Read more from Carolyn Lochhead at the San Francisco Chronicle
Boehner, McConnell to skip CPAC, Underscoring Tensions Between GOP Leadership, Grass Roots
The Conservative Political Action Conference is the biggest annual gathering of Republican leaders and conservative activists, but neither Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell nor House Speaker John A. Boehner is scheduled to make the 10-mile drive from Capitol Hill to speak to CPAC this year, underscoring the lingering tensions between Republican Washington leadership and the party’s grass roots.
It marks the first time in years that Mr. McConnell will skip the CPAC gathering, a year after the Kentucky Republican made headlines by holding aloft a gun during his speech. Mr. Boehner last spoke at CPAC in 2010, months before the tea party helped fuel Republicans’ takeover of the House and made the Ohio Republican the speaker.
Both have tussled with their right flank over how best to advance a conservative agenda at the Capitol.
“CPAC 2015 is all about the 2016 Republican presidential field, and Boehner and McConnell don’t figure into that equation,” said Ford O’Connell, a Republican Party strategist. “While they are not exactly crowd favorites at CPAC, their time is better served at the Capitol working to prevent a government shutdown.
John Boehner Should Pardon Speaker Coup Plotters
Normally in the attempted coup business, this is the part where the plotters get punished.
Those 25 Republicans who made a run at dumping John Boehner (R-Ohio) as Speaker of the House did not succeed in stopping the Speaker from winning a third term.
They had the backing of the American people — 60 percent of those who voted for Republicans in the 2014 midterms say they want a new Speaker.
hey had more rebels willing to take the risks than at any time in the last 100 years.
And they had momentum with voters resoundingly favoring conservative candidates and conservative policies in the elections.
Voters did not go for pastel. They went for "end ObamaCare, defund amnesty, lower taxes now." These are bright colors, bold distinctions, and they are not Boehner's cup of tea.
But what the plotters didn't have was a coordinated strategy for pulling it off or a candidate to siphon enough votes to force extra ballots. They tried to beat something with nothing, and the results were sadly predictable.
But what now? Should the speaker not exact revenge if for no other reason than to enforce party discipline?
Don't Accept Obama's Impeachment Dare
In the pantheon of dumbest ideas in modern American history, there was New Coke, Microsoft Bob, the 1987 Yugo GV, the vibrating ab belt and the Snuggie for dogs. But not one of those would rival President Barack Obama’s current dare to congressional Republicans to impeach him.
If Republicans take up the dare, it would cost them the Senate in 2014, the presidency in 2016 and relevance for perhaps a decade or more. And that includes if Obama takes out his pen and phone and signs an executive order legalizing millions of undocumented immigrants. Even if a Republican could get elected president in, say, 2020, Democrats then would be in position to impeach with political impunity 20 minutes after the inauguration ended.
This is bad governance, bad politics and bad strategy. It would be political suicide even to contemplate it seriously.
And it’s not being contemplated by serious people. But mere discussion of impeachment by fringe players, such as Sarah Palin and Rep. Steve Stockman, R-Texas, has enabled Democrats to raise millions of dollars with desperate email appeals to “have Barack’s back.”
It’s not the fringe of the Democratic Party that talks about impeachment. It’s the marquee names — Obama, Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi, Joe Biden — who push the I word. And it’s not hard to figure out why. Democrats face a turnout debacle in 2014. Their younger voters are less enthusiastic. The independents who twice made Obama president are not on board. Current polling gives Republicans a 14-point engagement advantage. And this time around, it’s been Democratic candidates — Bruce Braley, running for Senate in Iowa, for example — whose missteps have dominated campaign coverage.
