Conservatives, Bitter Battles Cause Headaches For GOP In Key Senate Primaries
Mitt Romney's loss at the Utah state party convention on Saturday is the latest example of an even bigger problem for Republicans – the conservative influence in key Senate primaries and the nasty fights that could hamper GOP attempts to have a strong majority in the upper chamber next year.
The enthusiasm on the right has, in some past contests, led to a more conservative general election candidate who failed to win in November.
Republicans cite those examples off the top of their heads: Christine O’Donnell in Delaware who will forever be identified with a 2010 ad in which she declared “I’m not a witch”; Todd Atkin in Missouri who in 2012 said victims of "legitimate rape" very rarely become pregnant; and Roy Moore in Alabama’s December special election, who vehemently denied multiple allegations of sexual misconduct.
The most dedicated voters on both sides – the more conservative and the more liberal – tend to vote in primary elections, especially in the midterms, which can skew the results in competitive contests.
And those voters, who helped put Donald Trump into office, tend to veer right when it comes to picking their nominee.
It’s a problem on the mind of Republicans as they look to bolster their razor-thin majority in the Senate amid growing concerns Democrats could retake the House.
But the key for the GOP will be getting the right candidate, especially in red states like West Virginia and Arizona, which have competitive GOP primaries in the coming months.
“The map has broken out for them but they just have to make sure the primaries break out for them as well,” said GOP strategist Ford O’Connell.
“The good thing in Arizona is that it appears the two favorites of the base seem to be canceling each other out but that does not mean Martha McSally is going to have an easy time winning the nomination,” O’Connell said.
“You have a chance of not only keeping the Senate but making major gains depending on who the party nominates in a lot of these contests. So in a lot of ways the Republicans chances of holding the United States’ Senate depends solely on who those folks nominate,” O’Connell noted.
Red-State Dems May Reach Across Aisle Ahead Of 2018
For a handful of Senate Democrats facing tough races in 2018, conservative pressures from voters back home could encourage more centrist stances ahead of next year’s midterm elections.
Aggressive bipartisanship, in other words, may be the best hope for red-state Sens. Claire McCaskill, Joe Donnelly, and Heidi Heitkamp to woo on-the-fence voters in their respective states of Missouri, Indiana, and North Dakota.
All three of the Democratic lawmakers scored in the top third of the Lugar Center - McCourt School Bipartisan Index of the 114th Congress, a quantitative ranking of how frequently a member voted across party lines. Donnelly finished at No. 2. The bipartisan bills the three have sponsored have pertained mainly to veterans and the VA, health care, and state-based economic development, specifically in promoting agriculture and job creation.
“Democrats have to be very, very careful that they’re not primaried by their own people over [health care],” said Republican strategist Ford O’Connell. “After that, anything that comes up -- if anything does come up -- is going to be specifically endemic to their state.”
Cruz Quits Race After Crushing Defeat In Indiana
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz ended his presidential campaign after losing the Indiana primary to Donald Trump.
The Cruz campaign bet big on Indiana, and suffered a crushing loss. He canvassed Indiana in the days leading up to the Hoosier State's primary akin to how he barnstormed Iowa. Cruz overcame late polls to defeat Trump in Iowa's caucus, but Trump prevailed in Indiana's open primary.
Cruz pulled out all the stops for Indiana, but it wasn't enough.
Republican strategists had already begun counting Cruz out, however. Ford O'Connell, a veteran of the McCain-Palin campaign, said if Trump wins Indiana, there would be no stopping him.
"If he wins Indiana, it's a huge psychological dagger for Cruz and it shows that Trump now has momentum more than in just certain geographical locations," O'Connell said. "And if he has that, even though the rest of May is very hard for Trump and favors Cruz, like in Nebraska, it just seems that a third of the party, the more moderate folks, are sort of coming around to the idea that Trump's going to be the nominee."
Cruz Rolls Dice With Fiorina
Facing a must-win situation in next week’s primary in Indiana, Ted Cruz sought to shake up the GOP presidential campaign by naming Carly Fiorina as his vice presidential candidate.
The dramatic move was teased as a big announcement Wednesday morning and dominated the news cycle a day after Donald Trump swept five Northeastern primaries and reasserted his dominance of the GOP race.
Cruz desperately needed something to change the race’s momentum, and he turned to a failed Republican presidential candidate best known for her fiery attacks on Trump and Hillary Clinton, the likely Democratic presidential nominee.
“Ted Cruz is going to be rubbing a rabbit’s foot until Tuesday hoping for another Wisconsin,” said GOP strategist Ford O’Connell. “Not winning Indiana could be a psychological dagger for Cruz’s hopes.”
O’Connell noted that while the move is geared at expanding Cruz’s base and reaching out more directly to women, it’s a major Hail Mary.
“The most coverage you ever get is the day you announce, the day you clinch the nomination and the day you make the VP pick,” he said.
“He’s now giving up just one of his ‘whammies’ just to stay alive. That tells you what desperate straits he’s in.”
Ford O'Connell: Backlash To Indiana Law 'Over The Top'
Republican strategist Ford O'Connell says that the backlash to the Indiana religious freedom law has been "over the top" but that the proposed "fix" will help "the backlash go away."
"It's a perfect storm of basically unfounded hysteria coupled with legal ignorance, turbo-charged basically by the left's social intolerance," O'Connell told J.D. Hayworth on "America's Forum" on Newsmax TV on Wednesday.
"Perception is reality in politics, but there is a quick fix to the Indiana law, and the backlash will go away," he explained.
Watch the video and read more from Courtney Coren at Newsmax.com
Ford O'Connell At Politico's Arena: 'Lugar's Defeat: Is The Tea Party Back?'
Mourdock’s landslide win was a minor victory for the tea party, because Lugar was his own worst enemy and the job is far from complete.
It is not enough for the tea party to just primary incumbents; you have to deliver general election results. If Mourdock is victorious in November, in what is expected to be a tightly contested general election matchup with Donnelly, then last night’s result will likely be considered a watershed moment for the tea party in 2012.
Veteran Republican Senator Lugar Soundly Defeated
Senator Richard Lugar, a 35-year Senate veteran and leading foreign policy voice, was soundly defeated in the Indiana Republican primary by a Tea Party-backed rival on Tuesday, jolting the American political establishment during a volatile election year.
Lugar, 80, was the first Senate incumbent ousted this year and his defeat showed that the anti-Washington, small government Tea Party movement is alive and well.
The veteran Senator lost to Indiana state Treasurer Richard Mourdock by more than 20 percentage points, according to preliminary results from the state election division.
"Lugar's defeat is a wake-up call from the Tea Party to the Republican establishment," said Ford O'Connell, a Republican strategist and chairman of CivicForum PAC, which endorsed Mourdock and contributed to his campaign. "It will make them think about how to proceed, not just in what they say but how they vote in the run-up to the (November) election."
Indiana Senate: Mourdock To Face Donnelly In General Election
This is a positive sign for the Tea Party, who many pundits have written off, but the job will not be complete until Mourdock wins in November. The Indianapolis Star's Mary Beth Schnider has more on Tea Party challenger Richard Mourdock's decisive victory:
Sen. Richard Lugar’s 36-year Senate career is now history.
Lugar was defeated in today’s Republican primary election by Treasurer Richard Mourdock, ending his bid for a seventh term in the U.S. Senate.
It wasn’t even close.
With 70 percent of the vote counted, Mourdock had 60 percent to Lugar’s 40 percent.
Mourdock will face Democrat U.S. Rep. Joe Donnelly and Libertarian Andy Horning in the November election.
Five Reason Richard Lugar Will Likely Lose Indiana GOP Primary
Very solid analysis. From NBC's First Read:
(1) Residency and outreach: Lugar hasn’t lived in Indiana for years and wasn’t able to say what address was on his driver’s license. Mourdock exploited it. And Lugar didn’t do enough outreach with local GOP establishment or Tea Party leaders. Lugar disputes that, telling NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell: “I've been perfectly connected all the way along. It’s a ridiculous charge. How can anybody be more Hoosier? I've got a farm out here that I continue to work with my sons. I manage it on behalf of our family. I'm in touch every week with everybody in the state, usually on the ground with visits but with our staffs, trying to meet almost every challenge of individual Hoosiers or groups.”
(2) Ignoring the recent past: Last year, Republicans walked Lugar through what went wrong with Bennett, Lisa Murkowski, and Mike Castle. And what went right with John McCain -- no favorite of the Tea Party – who went after opponent J.D. Hayworth early on and never let up. Unfortunately for Lugar, strategists say, the advice was ignored. If you don’t want to change your own stances, then make the alternative unacceptable. McCain made his alternative unacceptable.
(3) Campaign: he didn’t have the kind of campaign in place that was necessary to win this kind of race. Hatch and even Olympia Snowe got it, and hired top operatives. Mourdock hired people who’d been there before;
(4) Message: “Lugar as statesman” just wasn’t going to get the job done. Movements have short-term memories. Mourdock’s message was simple and effective– “Dick Lugar is a fine man, but 36 years in Washington is long enough, and he’s lost touch with Indiana.”;
(5) Candidate: So much of what happens in campaigns, comes from the top. As revered as Lugar is in Washington, he wasn’t able to adapt -- and failed to fully appreciate -- a changing dynamic within his party. Yesterday, for example, he continued to defend earmarks.
Dick Lugar-Richard Mourdock Race a Do-or-Die Moment for Tea Party
When Newt Gingrich's campaign finally died last Wednesday, it took with it the hopes of Tea Party and other conservative groups to lift one of their own into the White House.
But it did not end their interest and involvement in the 2012 election cycle. It only shifted it.
[T]he Tea Party faces its own moment of truth this cycle. Its boisterous, headline-grabbing rallies are a thing of the past. Its poll numbers have slipped from a commanding high to even or worse. Those extremely opposed outnumber those extremely supportive of its agenda by big and growing numbers. Moreover, Republican leadership in the House openly defies its wishes, and Democrats have begun to think they can use Tea Party affiliation against their opponents.
[U]nless the Tea Party can deliver this cycle, unless it can push favored candidates to victory and be seen as having played key roles in those victories, its future may be limited indeed.
That's what makes this Tuesday so important. That's the day Indiana voters will go to the polls to choose between six-term U.S. Sen. Richard Lugar and his Republican primary opponent, state treasurer Richard Mourdock.
Fortunately for the Tea Party, it has picked a good place to make its stand. Lugar positions himself as a statesman willing to work across party lines at a time when sharp elbows and partisanship carry the day. He has angered conservatives with his votes for Supreme Court Justices Elena Kagan and Sonia Sotomayor. He has an F rating from the National Rifle Association, a tepid 75from the American Conservative Union, and a 73—two points below the disappointing Republican average—in the more economically focused Heritage Action for America ratings.
