How Jeb Bush's Wife Could Help Win Him The White House
Jeb Bush’s secret weapon in his potential White House bid is his wife of 40 years, Columba Bush, supporters of the former Florida governor say.
Columba, who would be the nation’s first Hispanic first lady if her husband wins the presidency, largely eschewed the public spotlight in Florida and is known for having a shy public demeanor.
Before Bush (R) announced in December that he was exploring a bid for the White House, it was thought that Columba could even put the brakes on his national candidacy.
Yet friends of the Bush family, and those who have worked closely with Jeb and Columba for decades, say that beneath her private persona lies a rock-solid interior. They argue she’s fully prepared to step into the pressure cooker that awaits if Jeb runs for president in 2016.
The Mexican-born immigrant has steeped Jeb in Hispanic culture. They speak Spanish at home, and Bush allies credit her with helping shape Jeb’s “act of love” message on immigration reform.
But some Republicans believe Jeb’s moderate tones on immigration reform are a conservative apostasy that will doom him, particularly in early-voting caucus and primary states like Iowa and South Carolina.
“In the primaries, the idea of a candidate talking immigration reform with a biracial family on the stump is going to be a big moment,” said GOP strategist Ford O’Connell. “She’s going to have to navigate it as well as Jeb does.”
“These moments, you never know when they’ll come, but they’ve come for all of the first ladies,” O’Connell added.
The Latino Vote And Turnout In Presidential Elections
Depending on turnout, the Hispanic vote could be the deciding factor in the 2012 Battle for the White House. From Pew Hispanic Center:
A record 23.7 million Latinos are eligible to vote in the 2012 presidential election, according to an analysis of Census Bureau data by the Pew Hispanic Center, a project of the Pew Research Center. This is up by more than 4 million, or 22%, since 2008, when 19.5 million Latinos were eligible to vote.
Latinos are the nation’s largest minority group. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, in 2011 there were 51.9 million Latinos in the U.S., making up 16.7% of the nation’s population.
However, the turnout rate of eligible Latino voters historically lags that of whites and blacks by substantial margins. In 2008, for example, 50% of eligible Latino voters cast ballots, compared with 65% of blacks and 66% of whites.
GOP Hispanic VP Option May Be Fading For Romney
Picking a Hispanic politician would be a logical way to boost appeal with a key constituency. Republicans, including Romney, have some “catching up to do” with Hispanic voters after lashing themselves to the anti-immigration wing of the party in recent years. A cavalcade of pundits and strategists argue that a Hispanic vice president might be their last, best shot to clean up their image before they lose a rapidly growing demographic for a generation.
But Romney may not be able to balance his ticket with a Hispanic rising star regardless of the debate’s merits. Of the three big names to emerge [Susana Martinez, Brian Sandoval and Marco Rubio] from that 2010 class, at least two look highly unlikely to occupy the No. 2 spot and one is steadfastly denying interest, potentially denying the GOP its big chance at damage control.
“I think that none of the Latino names in play will be picked,” one Republican strategist told TPM, citing concerns that Rubio’s public vetting process might overshadow Romney.
Beyond that trio, the bench of Latino Republicans is thin, with no obvious vice presidential candidates leaping out.