Americans’ Confidence In Job Market Hits New High: Poll
CivicForumPAC Chairman Ford O’Connell and Payne Capital senior wealth advisor Courtney Dominguez discuss why Americans are more enthusiastic about the job market.
Poll: Compromise Sought On Fiscal Cliff
Americans' interest in their elected leaders in Washington seeking compromise and not doggedly adhering to principle in the fiscal cliff negotiations has accelerated over the last week. A dwindling 18% of Americans believe that leaders should stick to their principles and beliefs on tax increases and spending cuts, while seven in 10 say leaders should compromise their principles and beliefs in order to get an agreement.
The average American has not given up hope that the "cliff" will be avoided; about six in 10 say it is likely that a settlement will be reached before the Jan. 1 deadline.
Gallup: Majority Now Against Federal Government Healthcare Guarantee
Obamacare's promise of health insurance for all is still a sore subject for a majority of Americans. From Gallup:
For the first time in Gallup trends since 2000, a majority of Americans say it is not the federal government's responsibility to make sure all Americans have healthcare coverage. Prior to 2009, a majority always felt the government should ensure healthcare coverage for all, though Americans' views have become more divided in recent years.
The current results are based on Gallup's annual Health and Healthcare poll, conducted Nov. 15-18 this year.
Currently, 57% prefer a private system and 36% a government-run system, essentially the same as in 2010 and 2011. Prior to the passage of the Affordable Care Act in 2010, the percentage of Americans in favor of a government-run system ranged from 32% to 41%.
Poll: 2012 Voter Turnout Likely Lower Than 2008, 2004
U.S. voters have not been quite as engaged in the 2012 election as in the two that preceded it, even before Sandy. However, their stated voting intentions and reported thought given to the election suggest turnout would likely not revert to the lower levels of 1996 and 2000. If turnout does come in lower this year -- that is, it looks more like 1996 and 2000 and less like 1992, 2004, and 2008 -- that may be another effect of Sandy in addition to flooding and widespread power outages.
Turnout Will Likely Decide 2012 Battle For White House
Think: Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire. From Gallup:
That underscores the importance of turnout by the party groups in the Nov. 6 election, given that views of the president are largely fixed. Another key in determining Obama's electoral fate may be which side of the 50% approval mark independent voters wind up on; they have been very near 50% approval in recent weeks.
Americans Don't Want More Government Regulation Of Business
Americans say there is too much (47%) rather than too little (26%) government regulation of business and industry, with 24% saying the amount of regulation is about right. Americans have been most likely to say there is too much regulation of business over the last several years, but prior to 2006, Americans' views on the issue of government regulation of business were more mixed.
All in all, the results suggest that a call from Mitt Romney for a reduction in government regulations and red tape may strike a more responsive chord from the average American, particularly independent Americans, than a call from Obama for more regulation.
Poll: Married Voters Strongly Support Mitt Romney
Married registered voters prefer Republican challenger Mitt Romney over Democratic President Barack Obama by 54% to 39%, according to Gallup data collected from June to August. On the other hand, nonmarried voters break strongly for the president over Romney, 56% to 35%. Marriage is a significant predictor of presidential vote choice even after income, age, race, gender, education, religiosity, region, and having minor children are statistically controlled for.
Demographics alone do not explain the marriage-voting relationship. A special multivariate statistical analysis found that marriage remains an important predictor of support for Romney vs. Obama even after controlling for age, race, income, gender, education, religiosity, region, and whether a voter has minor children. These findings thus demonstrate that being married has some influence on voting patterns that cannot be attributed solely to common demographics and characteristics among married individuals.
Swing-State Votes Worse Off Today Than In 2008
The 2012 battle for the White House will likely be a "base" election. Still the chart below should worry President Obama, because it means that his chances for winning re-election rely on his campaign's ability to make the case to swing-state independents that he deserves four more years. From Jeffrey M. Jones at Gallup:
Presidential candidate Ronald Reagan famously asked Americans, in a 1980 presidential debate, if they were better off than four years ago. Shortly thereafter, he decisively defeated incumbent Jimmy Carter in the presidential election.
The question is relevant again in 2012 as Barack Obama seeks a second term as president with the economy still struggling to recover from the 2008-2009 recession. The fact that the majority of voters in the crucial states that will decide the election believe they are not better off is a challenge for the Obama campaign. That includes 50% of independent voters in the swing states, in addition to 36% of Democrats and 84% of Republicans saying they are not better off.
Americans Disappointed With Obama On Several Key Issues
Nearly six in 10 Americans approve of Obama's handling of terrorism; however, that is where majority approval of the president ends in the current poll. He earns his lowest issue ratings on the economic issue areas tested in the survey, with approval on the federal budget deficit the lowest at 30%, and his approval on the economy not much higher, at 36%.
Historically, presidents who won a second term had near-50% job approval ratings or better prior to the election. To move closer to that range, Obama may want to focus singularly on raising his approval rating on the economy, as with previous presidents it seems to have been the issue approval most closely linked to overall job approval.