At Each Rally Stop, Trump Drops More Vague Clues About A Possible Second-Term Agenda
Donald Trump is barnstorming from battleground state to battleground state mostly insulting his Democratic foes and making bleak pronouncements about a Joe Biden presidency — but he also is dropping vague clues about his own possible second term.
The president is running a re-election campaign based mostly on the pre-coronavirus economy, as well as all the gloom and doom that would sweep over the country if the Democratic nominee and former vice president defeats him next week.
“The No. 1 thing would be pulling us out of the ditch economically from the pandemic,” Ford O’Connell said this week. “People are out of work. The president knows this, and he wants to fix it. Importantly, his focus would primarily be on the economy of main street.
Biden And Trump Battle Over 'Made In America' Economic Agenda
In 2016 President Donald Trump won over a large portion of working-class voters with an "America First" economic agenda, promising to bring back jobs and manufacturing to the United States. In 2020, former Vice President Joe Biden has made a similar pitch to voters, promising to invest $700 billion in American goods and labor to spur an economic recovery.
Like many campaign promises, Biden's "Buy American" blueprint was short on details. It is primarily a "political document," argued Republican strategist Ford O'Connell.
"This is about narratives and themes," O'Connell said. "Imitation to this degree illustrates just how strong Trump's 'America First' economic message is and how fearful the Biden campaign is of it at the ballot box."
"It's clear the Biden campaign is saying we need to find a way to cut into Trump's lead on this," O'Connell continued. "The better the economy does, the better the handling of the coronavirus seems to be in October, the better for Donald Trump."
Politico Calls Out 2020 Dems For Trillion-Dollar Plans
Republican strategist Ford O'Connell discusses the 2020 Democrats’ high-cost plans.
Democrats Return To A Battered Trump
President Trump is emerging from a turbulent August with a new problem: Capitol Hill Democrats are about to be back in town.
The Democrats have vowed to unleash new fronts in their investigations of Trump and heap pressure on the White House and Republicans to tackle gun legislation this fall in response to a new series of mass shootings.
On Friday, two House committees sent inquiries to the White House about administration officials’ use of taxpayer money at Trump properties, after Vice President Pence was forced to defend a stay at a Trump property in Ireland during an official trip there.
Congress is returning to do battle with a weakened Trump, who entered the August recess from a point of strength but has been battered by weeks of bruising headlines.
GOP strategist Ford O’Connell said that the controversies individually aren’t major but that they as a whole detract from the White House’s messaging on low jobless claims and economic growth. Trump, he argued, needs to be wary of distracting from his accomplishments ahead of the 2020 election with “tweets from left field.”
“This is a lesson for the White House,” O’Connell said. “Part of that can be chucked up to the doldrums of summer, but they need to be really focused.”
Trump’s attention moving into the fall is likely to be increasingly focused on 2020 and his reelection bid.
Allies of the administration and former officials point to the push for the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement as the main legislative focus for the remainder of the year, but there is uncertainty around whether Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) will bring it up for a vote.
“The White House is going to go all in on this,” said O’Connell. “By not passing this, you’re rooting for the recession. You’re rooting to hurt the American worker.”
Read more from Morgan Chalfant and Brett Samuels at The Hill
New Poll Has Bad News For Trump. Voters Think The Economy Is Getting Worse
President Trump's strongest case for reelection is arguably the economy — he says so himself. But that argument might be slipping with voters, according to the latest Quinnipiac University poll.
For the first time since Mr. Trump won the presidency in 2016, more registered voters say the country's economy is getting worse than say it's getting better. Voters still think the economy is good, but of those polled, 37% say the economy is getting worse, compared with 31% who say it's getting better and 30% who say it's staying the same. Just two months earlier in June, 23% of voters Quinnipiac surveyed said the economy was getting worse.
"As trade tensions with China dominate the headlines, confidence in the economy is slipping," Quinnipiac University Polling analyst Mary Snow said in a statement. "The number of people who think the economy is getting worse rose by double digits since June. And roughly four in 10 voters blame the President's policies, saying they are hurting the economy, the highest level since Trump took office."
The president typically lists economic gains as his top accomplishment, and the state of the economy is highlighted frequently in administration and campaign talking points. But if voters don't see the world the same way, that message could be undermined.
If there is no recession, and voters continue to think the economy is good, even if people think the economy is heading in the wrong direction, that's probably good enough for the president's prospects, said GOP strategist Ford O'Connell.
"Since FDR, every incumbent president who has avoided a recession has been reelected," O'Connell told CBS News.
Democrats, O'Connell said, are going "full-court press" to convince voters that the economy is heading for a recession. The White House and Trump campaign will continue emphasizing the message that the economy is strong — and would worsen exponentially under a Democrat, O'Connell said.
Trump Leans Into Deal-Maker Reputation
President Trump is leaning into his deal-maker persona, seeking to project confidence about the economy ahead of his 2020 reelection bid.
At the Group of Seven (G-7) summit’s conclusion on Monday in Biarritz, France, Trump’s efforts were on full display.
The president spoke optimistically about the prospect of a deal to end the trade war with China, while championing a separate tentative trade agreement with Japan.
Trump promised a robust free trade agreement with a post-Brexit United Kingdom and spoke confidently about future nuclear agreements with North Korea and Iran. He also assailed the Obama administration for its “bad deal” with Tehran.
The performance was classic Trump and carried echoes of his first presidential campaign, when he ran on his experience as a celebrity businessman and real estate broker.
Republicans say Trump’s message, particularly when it comes to China, is meant to counter speculation about the prospect of a recession while fending off uncertainty spawned by a trade war that has resulted in dramatic stock market gyrations.
Economists say the prospect of a recession in 2020 has grown, and a trade pact with China might be one of the few things Trump could accomplish that would bolster economic confidence and even stave off a slowdown.
“Since [Franklin D. Roosevelt], every single president who has avoided recession has been reelected,” said GOP strategist Ford O’Connell. “As long as he’s optimistic about getting deals done and getting accomplishments, getting things done, that’s a good message for the American electorate.”
Americans’ Confidence In Job Market Hits New High: Poll
CivicForumPAC Chairman Ford O’Connell and Payne Capital senior wealth advisor Courtney Dominguez discuss why Americans are more enthusiastic about the job market.
Wary Of Second Mueller Probe, Trump 2020 Campaign Decides Against Having Policy Advisers
The 2020 Trump reelection campaign has opted not to have foreign or economic policy teams, in part to avoid the type of problems in 2016 that ensnared junior advisers and led to special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation.
Instead, Team Trump will follow the lead of the White House on policy, according to Trump campaign officials. It is the first time in at least two decades that a presidential candidate has decided not to have dedicated policy teams covering national security and the economy.
The campaign’s decision to avoid foreign policy advisers this time around could allow Team Trump to sidestep scrutiny over connections to foreign governments, as well as saving campaign cash.
Rather than having its own policy advisory teams, the Trump campaign follows the lead of the State Department, the Department of Defense, the National Council of Economic Advisers, and other executive departments on policies, most of which are already well established.
“His positions are known,” said Republican strategist Ford O’Connell of Trump. “The most important positions are going to be the economy, illegal immigration, and where he stands on tariffs, and he’s in good shape there. The only policy position he has to work on, really, is better messaging healthcare — how he’s going to protect preexisting conditions and keep medical costs down.”
O'Connell said the Trump campaign has a "huge advantage" over 2020 Democratic contenders, who will have to create new policies for a host of issues and try to make them stand out in a crowded field of 23 candidates.
And while some Democrats have rolled out attention-grabbing plans such as free college or "Medicare for all," others have been noticeably light on policy, something O’Connell was keen to point out.
The White House's Biggest Worry For 2020
With the 2020 presidential campaign ramping up and the Democratic field of presidential hopefuls growing, President Trump’s ability to secure a second term in office could hinge on his ability to weather an economic slowdown in the coming months.
“The biggest concern [for the White House] was not the Russia probe nor the Democrats’ field, but what the state of the economy is in 2020,” Republican strategist Ford O’Connell said. “That’s the biggest determinative of whether they’re going to be reelected.”
Historically, most incumbent presidents have been successful in winning a second term in the White House, with just five exceptions. The common thread shared by those one-term presidents was “either recession or a major economic blip,” O’Connell said.
“That’s what the White House has to guard against,” he said. “In some ways, that’s totally out of their hands. But at the same time, that’s why you see them trying to make end roads on other issues, like immigration and healthcare.”
Trump frequently cites as a key achievement of his presidency the growth in the economy and the low unemployment rate, which he attributes to tax cuts and deregulation.
But the economy could be buoyed by a trade deal between the U.S. and China, which the two countries are in the process of negotiating.
“A deal with China factors into it because what U.S. markets are looking for is stability,” O’Connell said. “It’s something the White House desperately wants to get done, but realizes it has some wiggle room in terms of timing.”
Trump's McCain Comments: Has Nothing To Gain By This, Should Be On The Economy 24/7, Fmr. McCain Campaign Director Says
Former McCain campaign director Ford O'Connell on concerns President Trump's comments on the late Sen. John McCain will distract from his economic successes.
