2nd And 3rd Debates In Doubt As Trump-Biden Fight Over Details
Even before President Donald Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis there were questions about whether there would be a second presidential debate. Trump answered that question Thursday morning when he refused to participate in a virtual format and now, that has raised doubts about the third and final debate.
"I'm not going to waste my time on a virtual debate," Trump told Fox Business. "That's not what debating's all about. You sit behind a computer and do a debate—it's ridiculous. And then they cut you off whenever they want."
Republican strategist Ford O'Connell argued that a lot can still happen in the 26 days before the election. That's why the Trump campaign is pushing for three in-person debates and why, earlier in the season, it requested four.
"Trump wants the American people to see Biden as much as possible," O'Connell said. "The Biden team, because they have a leg-up currently in the polls, know that the more time you subject yourself to that scrutiny, the more chance for a screwup, where Trump has very little to lose by trying different things," O'Connell said.
Here’s Who Has The Most To Gain — And Lose — From The First Democratic Debates
The first round of presidential primary debates this week will give most of the two dozen Democratic contenders their biggest platform yet to present themselves to the American people.
The rapid-fire debate format — candidates will get just one minute to answer questions and 30 seconds to respond to follow-ups — may be designed for maximum fairness. But the 20 Democrats set to participate in the debates Wednesday and Thursday night are hardly coming to the Miami stage on equal footing.
For most of the candidates stuck in the low single-digits in national polls, the first debates are a chance to make a strong national introduction as much as they are a forum to lay out a policy agenda. Candidates such as Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan or New York Mayor Bill de Blasio, who cleared the threshold to take part in the debates but have yet to garner much national support, “really have nothing to lose,” said Republican strategist Ford O’Connell.
It’s a different story for the front-runners. Former Vice President Joe Biden, for instance, has enjoyed a consistent double-digit polling advantage since announcing his 2020 run, and he will arrive at the debate Thursday as the prime target for most of the field, political analysts told CNBC.
“He has the most to lose, and the rest of the field will have their knives out,” O’Connell said. “They’re coming for him, period. The only question is whether or not they’re able to lay a glove on him.”
“Obviously some candidates are not thrilled. I’m sure Elizabeth Warren is the one who’s most unthrilled at the moment,” O’Connell said.
Of course, the Democrats’ most-wanted target is expected to be President Donald Trump himself. The president told Fox News’ Sean Hannity last week that he is considering live-tweeting his reactions to the debates.
“Even though every candidate’s going to take a swipe at Trump, he has a lot to gain here,” O’Connell said, because “this is the most important time” for the incumbent president “to define his opponent.”
“This is exactly how [President Barack] Obama beat [former GOP nominee Mitt] Romney in 2012,” O’Connell said. “I mean, by the time he was the official nominee, he was already a dog-killer in some people’s eyes. ”
How Will Donald Trump's Campaign Survive This One, Strategists Wonder
Now, finally, Donald Trump might have thrown cold water on his own white-hot summer surge to the top of the Republican presidential primary field.
The real estate mogul's attacks on Fox News host Megyn Kelly, his steadfast decision to lash out at anybody who questioned him, and yet another high profile HR departure from his campaign has led some GOP operatives to predict that Trump will finally face a backlash from voters who have until now tolerated his bombastic comments out of an appreciation for his willingness to rage against the political machine.
At least, some political strategists think so.
But like one of the summer's other great cliffhangers, no one can really be sure.
While attacking McCain is "very, very popular for conservatives," going after Kelly is a different story, said Republican strategist Ford O'Connell, a veteran of McCain's 2008 presidential campaign.
"If you can't handle Megyn Kelly, how are you going to handle Hillary Clinton?" he said. "It's not the comments per se. It's more the thin-skinned tantrum that he threw afterwards. And that is what is less presidential."
With Megyn Kelly 'Blood' Comment, Donald Trump Again Roils GOP Race
The rift between Republican presidential hopeful Donald Trump and the conservative mainstream appeared to deepen on Saturday as a conservative political gathering in Atlanta pulled Trump's invitation and rivals piled onto the billionaire for his comments about Fox News debate moderator Megyn Kelly.
Fellow 2016 GOP candidates perhaps sensed that with Trump as their party's standard-bearer, their chance to reverse the historic gender gap in the 2012 presidential election won by Democrat Barack Obama was under threat, months before the first votes are cast.
Trump's comment that blood was coming out of Kelly's “wherever” during Thursday's debate—made when she questioned him about his history of making disparaging comments about women—was “a bridge too far,” Erick Erickson, editor of the RedState political blog that organized the confab, wrote Friday night. “It is unfortunate to have to disinvite him. But I just don’t want someone on stage who gets a hostile question from a lady and his first inclination is to imply it was hormonal.”
Republican strategist Ford O’Connell said that the comments and attacks from rivals might not hurt Trump immediately but would be part of the mogul’s “slow implosion.”
“It may take weeks, it may take months, but Republican voters will realize this guy cannot be this thin-skinned and run for president of the United States,” said O’Connell, who worked for the McCain presidential campaign in 2008 and is so far unaffiliated this year. “If you can't handle it from Megyn Kelly, how are you going handle it from Hillary Clinton?”
Could An All-Male Debate Hurt The GOP?
Some Republican strategists are wondering whether the all-male cast of candidates set to take the debate stage on Thursday will spoil the party's efforts to appeal to women voters.
Carly Fiorina has hosted dozens of townhall forums and meet-and-greets in early primary states since launching her presidential campaign in May. She has garnered attention in the media for her steadfast criticism of Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton and her status as the only female GOP candidate has given her a unique opportunity to stand out in the male-dominated field.
Nevertheless, Fiorina's inability to make headway in national polls precluded her from securing a spot in the first GOP primary debate to be held Thursday. Instead, the former Hewlett-Packard CEO will participate in a forum hours before the debate alongside other candidates who failed to make the cut.
"In an ideal world, a lot of Republicans would like to have [Fiorina] on stage," GOP strategist Ford O'Connell told the Washington Examiner."Not just because of what she represents, but because of how she talks about the issues and about Hillary Clinton."
With Fiorina absent from the debate stage, O'Connell predicts that Democrats will "try to make hay about it." He says Republicans should be prepared to respond by pointing out that the Democratic field currently has "only one female, two less Latinos and one less black candidate running."
"I don't think the book is open or closed on Fiorina just yet, but it would be more helpful to have her on that stage," O'Connell said.
"It is important to show the many different flavors of the Republican Party and she's obviously a vital wing of that," O'Connell said. "If she does well in the Thursday night [forum] and she's going to make headlines."
Read more from Gabby Morrongiello at The Washington Examiner
How Lower-Tier GOP Candidates Can Make The Most Of The 'Happy Hour' Debate
Carly Fiorina and Bobby Jindal won't step onto the main stage of the Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, Ohio, for the first major 2016 Republican presidential debate on Thursday evening.
But left-out 2016 contenders relegated to an earlier debate—an event that Lindsey Graham has dubbed "the Happy Hour Debate"—want the world to know: That doesn't mean they can't win the White House.
After finding out that their candidates failed to qualify for the headlining GOP debate hosted by Fox News, Fiorina's and Jindal's campaigns were quick to downplay its importance and to deliver a message that the White House hopefuls are keeping an eye on the ultimate prize.
But Republican strategists warn that missing the first prime-time debate could do serious damage.
"Does it sort of put your campaign on life support? Yes, it does," Ford O'Connell, GOP consultant and former campaign adviser to John McCain, said. "You want to be in the top-tier debate."
Strategists say that there's still a chance that a breakout performance at the early event could help a candidate like Fiorina climb high enough in the polls to make it to CNN's prime-time debate next month.
"If you do well, you could be in the top tier in the next go around, because chances are someone on the main stage will trip and fall, too," O'Connell said. "It's still on Fox. It's still on national television. It's still a big deal."
The challenge for candidates who miss the prime-time event but still show up for the earlier debate will be to make a splash without going overboard.
Best Kept Secret: How Exactly Will Fox Winnow GOP Debate Field?
The clock is winding down toward the first Republican presidential debate, set for Aug. 6 in Cleveland, and the anxiety level around pretty much every candidate not named Donald Trump is palpable.
Sixteen major GOP candidates are jockeying for 10 slots, and the antics are intensifying.
Fox News, which is hosting the first debate with Facebook, has said the top 10 candidates from an average of the five most recent national polls, "as recognized by Fox News,” will be eligible to debate.
“Such polling must be conducted by major, nationally recognized organizations that use standard methodological techniques,” Fox has also said.
But, specifically, which polls meet Fox’s criteria?
“That’s the most closely guarded secret in America,” says Republican strategist Ford O’Connell.
But this first debate sets the table for the rest of the campaign – both in media exposure and in fundraising. Clips from that first debate will be replayed ad nauseum for days after the actual event, magnifying its importance.
“For some of [the candidates], if they can’t get on the debate stage, and stay on the debate stage, there’s no way they’re going to get the nomination or get the fundraising to get the nomination,” says Mr. O’Connell.
Read more from Linda Feldmann at The Christian Science Monitor
How Far Will GOP Candidates Go to Get Into Next Week's Debate?
Trailing in the polls, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee grabbed the media's attention this weekend by claiming that President Barack Obama's nuclear agreement with Iran is "marching the Israelis to the door of the oven." On Friday, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz made headlines by calling fellow Republican Mitch McConnell—the Senate Majority Leader—a liar on the Senate floor. A few days before that, Rand Paul literally took a chainsaw to the tax code over an electric-guitar rendition of the "Star Spangled Banner."
The first Republican presidential debate is next Thursday on Fox News. And under rules set by Fox (with the blessing of the Republican National Committee), just 10 of the 16 declared major candidates—those with the highest average in the five most recent national polls leading up to the debate—will get a spot on the stage. Participants in the second debate, hosted by CNN in September, will also be selected based largely on polling averages. The result is a last-minute scramble by the candidates to crack the top 10 any way they can.
"So what's the best way to make news?" asks Republican strategist Ford O'Connell. "Say something that's a little bit off-color."
The battle for media coverage is made that much tougher because Trump is "sucking up all the oxygen in the room," says O'Connell, who worked on John McCain's 2008 presidential campaign. But O'Connell doesn't blame Fox or the RNC for the frenzied rush to make it into the top 10 and the "off-color" comments it's producing. With 16 declared candidates, they have to winnow the field somehow to make the debates work, he says.
Chris Christie Touting His Conservative Bona Fides
Governor Christie spent the past week on the campaign trail hitting key issues that are popular with the conservative voters who likely hold the key to his success as a Republican candidate for president.
His tour through the early voting states, which includes return trips to New Hampshire and Iowa this week, comes as his campaign and a super PAC supporting his candidacy are spending a combined $1 million to run political ads nationally on Fox News that show Christie criticizing President Obama over the Iran nuclear deal, just as the next round of horse-race polls are being conducted.
The next two weeks are likely to be critical for the New Jersey governor.
Once a front-runner and the man many pushed to run for president four years ago, Christie is now so far down in the polls that analysts say he needs to build support among these conservatives to keep his chances alive for a spot in Fox News’ televised debate next month. Fox plans to use national polls to select which 10 of the 16 declared GOP candidates will appear in the first debate.
Republican strategist Ford O’Connell, who worked on U.S. Sen. John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign, said Christie is doing what he needs to in order to boost his support ahead of the debates and most voters won’t notice if he’s taking some liberties with his record. “I don’t think people are following it all that closely outside of New Jersey,” he said. “All they would generally know at this point is what you say. Therefore, sort of bending the record, if you will, it may catch up to him later, but right now he’s got to throw the kitchen sink out there to try to make sure he not only gets on that debate stage but stays on the debate stage.”
Does John Kasich Have A Chance? How He Can Catch Up To The GOP 15
John Kasich has his work cut out for him. The Ohio governor officially announced his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination on Tuesday, stressing his considerable experience in government and his history of overcoming long odds in politics with the repeated refrain, “They said it couldn’t be done and we proved them wrong.”
The latter is an idea Kasich will have to hammer home in the next two weeks because while nobody is saying he can’t possibly win the nomination, he’s facing some very long odds. As the 16th Republican to formally enter the race, Kasich is currently near the bottom of the pack in terms of poll numbers.
According to the Huffington Post average of national polls, Kasich’s support is currently at 1.7 percent, placing him 12th in a field of 16 candidates, many of whom have significant national profiles that Kasich, a relative unknown on the national political scene, will struggle to match.
If he expects to be a viable candidate, political analysts say there are some concrete steps he needs to take.
“He has to get on that debate stage, particularly because it’s in his home state,” said Republican strategist Ford O’Connell. “The only way he’s going to ‘prove them wrong’ is to get on that debate stage … There’s no way the news is going to be covering Kasich unless he gets into the top 10.”
O’Connell said that Kasich appears to be gambling on the possibility that his announcement, and the spike in coverage that comes with it, will give him enough of a bump in the polls to break into the top 10, and that once he’s seen as a top tier candidate, he’ll be able to attract both supporters and donors.
