Trump Signals Wall Or Nothing Approach To Shutdown Negotiations
President Donald Trump probably won't be satisfied with any deal Capitol Hill negotiators come up with he admitted Thursday, even in the long-shot event lawmakers agree on a solution to defuse the immigration standoff that shut down the government.
Trump said he will likely go ahead and use his executive power to build his border wall anyway, in comments that could badly undercut compromise talks between lawmakers.
Trump called the consultations between Democrats and Republicans from the House and the Senate "a waste of time," in an interview with The New York Times published Thursday night.
"I've set the table. I've set the stage for doing what I'm going to do," Trump said, without specifically confirming that he plans to declare a national emergency and reprogram money already offered by Congress for other purposes.
Such a step, or some other executive action, would set off a constitutional showdown and a certain legal challenge over whether the President would be claiming power he does not have to usurp Congress's prerogative to appropriate funds.
Trump's warning came amid few signs of progress from the Capitol Hill talks and after he lashed out at House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, accusing her of "playing games" because of her refusal to fund a wall he always said Mexico would pay for.
"It's not an issue for him in 2020 so long as the base of the Republican Party believes he's committed to border security," said Ford O'Connell, a Republican political strategist.
"You have to understand on this issue, regardless of how hyper-partisan and far apart the parties are, the bottom line is that they believe he is the last best hope to get illegal immigration under control," said O'Connell, who is also an adjunct professor at the George Washington Graduate School of Political Management.
This equation is the reason that the best political solution for the President may be to go ahead with a declaration of national emergency or some other executive action to reposition government money to build the wall.
"The national emergency solves a problem with respect to his base all being in lock step," said O'Connell.
Republicans In Wait-And-See Mode After Judge Strikes A Blow To Obamacare
The comments from GOP leadership come, however, as some rank-and-file GOP lawmakers say that the ruling puts pressure on Congress to come up with a plan if the ruling striking down the law is ultimately upheld.
The landmark health care law does remain in effect for now, despite a ruling Friday in Texas that said that its individual coverage mandate is unconstitutional and that the rest of the law therefore cannot stand. It's too soon to say what the ruling will mean for the fate of the law since it is expected to face appeal and likely end up before the Supreme Court.
That has left Republicans in Congress, who very much want to make broad legislative changes to the Affordable Care Act, in wait-and-see mode over whether they will be forced into yet another fight over health care as a result of the current legal battle. Lawmakers are also anxious about the potential political fallout of disrupting the health care law that polls show is popular with many Americans.
But while Republican congressional leaders appear to be arguing that at least for now this remains an issue for the courts to resolve, President Donald Trump has seized on the ruling to immediately turn attention to Congress.
Some GOP strategists argue that now the political dynamics of any health care policy could even be more favorable to the Republican Party with Democrats in control of the House.
"This ruling would have been terrible for Republicans if they still controlled the House, but because they don't, they have the opportunity to sit back and focus on message and really this has the potential to give Republicans second life on this issue," GOP strategist Ford O'Connell said.
Special Election Rebuff Builds Trump's Losing Streak
For someone who talks so much about winning, President Donald Trump is racking up quite the losing streak.
The electoral earthquake in Pennsylvania set to send Democrat Conor Lamb to the House of Representatives from a district Trump won by 20 points in 2016 is sparking new questions about the President's personal political potency.
That's because state Rep. Rick Saccone is not the first GOP candidate during Trump's term to win the President's blessing and promptly lose. Trump-backed candidates Luther Strange, Roy Moore and Ed Gillespie also tanked in Senate and gubernatorial races in Alabama and Virginia.
Those busted endorsements suggest that for all his mystical connection with his base, Trump is not necessarily an asset for GOP candidates in special elections. They may also be a sign that the President will be more of a liability than an asset for Republicans come midterm elections in November.
While some Republicans are in denial over the implications of Tuesday's special election in Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District, others are concluding that relying on the President in reelection races may not be a sure bet.
Despite his losing streak, Trump may not be a millstone for all Republicans in November -- at least not in races in rural districts.
"Some Republicans are going to have to run different races than other Republicans, particularly those in suburban districts where Trump is not popular," said Ford O'Connell, a Republican strategist.
"In some of these other districts, Trump might be a huge asset for you. I don't think there is a one size fits all. I would look at this as more suburban versus not as suburban."
How Bernie Sanders And Steve Bannon Are Defining American Politics
The battle lines for the 2018 midterm election are being revealed as both parties gear up for emotional debates on issues and positions that were one confined to the radical fringes but now drive American politics.
Republican fratricide is looming in a clash between Donald Trump's populist, economic nationalism and Washington governing elites compered by Steve Bannon and shows the GOP's destructive 2016 primary did nothing to solve its deep philosophical splits.
Republicans always knew that 2018 was going to be a tough year -- first-term incumbent presidents and their parties traditionally get a lashing from the voters. But the GOP's hopes of holding the House and expanding its majority in a favorable set of Senate races are being threatened by internecine conflict.
Now, his erstwhile political guru Bannon, styling himself as a "street fighter," is eying up a roster of GOP primary challengers more in line with Trump's establishment-busting creed than the senators and dwellers of the Washington swamp who currently occupy Republican seats.
It's a high-risk strategy, since some senior party figures fear that a desire to punish senators insufficiently loyal to Trump in primary races could deliver candidates who are less well-placed to defeat Democrats.
"I do get the fact that Bannon wants to help the President," said Ford O'Connell, a Republican political strategist.
"I get the fact that a lot of folks who support the President are frustrated with more mainstream members of Congress who are not pushing the Trump agenda through," he added. "That said, this could wind up being potentially disastrous. It's one thing to challenge a candidate but if you can't field a challenger who can win in the general election that is absolutely not helpful."
Donald Trump's Tough Path To The White House
Donald Trump got a morale boost this week -- but it likely won't be enough to propel him to the White House.
After weeks of devastating headlines, the Republican nominee seemed to give himself a break. He largely avoided incessant talk about allegations of sexual assault by multiple women and claims that the election is rigged -- both of which made wavering Republicans nervous.
The drumbeat of WikiLeaks disclosures yielded material to lambast Hillary Clinton and her family's foundation. And news of rising Obamacare premiums gave him an opening to criticize President Barack Obama's legacy that Clinton is running to inherit.
But 11 days before the election, Trump is down six points in CNN's Poll of Polls. His path to the 270 electoral votes needed to capture the presidency remains daunting and it will be tough to overcome the deficit in the remaining time. Trump seemed to acknowledge the challenges Thursday.
"To have a fighting chance in this election of getting to 270 electoral votes, he has to win North Carolina, Ohio and Florida. If he does win all three that still gives him only 253 electoral votes," said Ford O'Connell, a GOP strategist. "The biggest problem for the Trump campaign is overall, where are you going to get 270? He basically almost has to run an inside straight and almost has to have them all fall into his hands."
Why 'Deplorables' Spat Is Here To Stay
There's a reason why the Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton campaigns are behaving like the election could turn on a single, newly coined noun -- "deplorables."
The political firestorm over the Democratic nominee's use of the word to demean half of her rival's supporters might seem like another of the bizarre spats that trivialize presidential races. But the controversy has turned into one of those rare campaign moments when strategists for each candidate are happy to trade fire on the same ground.
"We have the support of cops and soldiers and carpenters and welders and accountants and lawyers, the young and the old, and millions of working class families all over this nation," Trump said in Iowa Tuesday. "My opponent slanders you as deplorable and irredeemable."But the Clinton campaign -- struggling to move past damaging video showing the Democratic nominee stumbling and wobbly over the weekend -- is hardly in a defensive crouch on the "deplorables" comment. Instead, the plan is to turn the tables on Trump with the implicit accusation that if anyone is deplorable, it is him.
"This is not a mistake on Clinton's part. She is looking up at the polls, they are tightening and there is an enthusiasm gap in favor of Trump," said Ford O'Connell, a GOP strategist who is not affiliated with the Trump campaign. "She is engaging in what some would argue is a high-risk strategy to gin up support among voters who just might not turn out."
O'Connell added: "Turnout is the biggest issue for her. The map is the biggest issue for Trump."
What Clinton Learned From Trump's GOP Rivals
Donald Trump's Republican primary challengers first ignored him, then taunted him.
Hillary Clinton and her allies aren't making those mistakes.
The presumptive Democratic nominee and her formidable cavalry — including President Barack Obama, Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden — are hitting Trump fast, hard and often.
And they aren't making jokes about his hands. Instead, they are questioning his temperament, his business acumen and his fundamental values as an American in a nonstop bid to make him unpalatable to voters.
The effort was on full display Tuesday when Clinton delivered stinging rebukes of Trump's business competence, which is at the heart of his public persona.
Trump has often exacerbated the challenge as he's stumbled from crisis to crisis in recent weeks, ensuring much of the media coverage has focused on self-inflicted drama rather than his campaign or Clinton's weaknesses.
"It is like the Trump campaign went on vacation for the past 48 days," said Ford O'Connell, a Republican political strategist who is not affiliated with Trump's campaign.
O'Connell, the Republican consultant, said Trump could still revive his campaign and cause serious problems for Clinton, provided he focused on just two goals: showing how "he is going to make the lives of average Americans better and why Hillary Clinton is unfit to be President."
Outsider Campaigns Seek Inside Track
Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders are confronting the same paradox: the fate of their insurgent campaigns built on scorn for the political establishment rests on how well they play the inside game.
For Trump, the challenge is shifting from a strategy of piling up state primary wins to one that also takes into account states that award delegates in a more intricate fashion. Trump's organizational weakness in that type of contest was underscored Saturday when he was swept by Ted Cruz in the Colorado Republican convention.
Sanders, meanwhile, has to win not only more pledged delegates but also more superdelegates -- party officials and other elites who can vote however they choose -- if he wants to take the Democratic battle for the White House to the convention floor.
Trump is already making the case that the system is inherently unfair and is a symptom of the insider politics practiced by distant elites that disenfranchises grass-roots voters like those who have flocked to his campaign.
"The nuts and bolts of presidential politics is an archaic language and very few people understand it. Outsiders need insiders to be successful," said Republican political strategist Ford O'Connell. "If you want to crack the Da Vinci code, you need insiders."
Candidates Gear Up For Super Tuesday
Super Tuesday is likely to live up to its billing for Donald Trump.
The first day of multiple-state voting looms large in a wild presidential race after early states trimmed the field and the brash billionaire and his army of outsider voters are positioned to send panic through the Republican establishment by tightening his grip on the party's nomination.
A CNN/ORC national poll out Monday shows Donald Trump in a dominant lead, getting 49% of the Republican primary vote -- 30 percentage points ahead of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. On the Democratic side, Clinton tops Sanders 55% to 38%.
The contests, across 12 states, herald several weeks of nationwide skirmishes that will be decisive in determining who gets to face off for the White House in the fall.
Republican leaders and operatives, meanwhile, are wondering whether the blitz against Trump by Rubio at CNN's debate in Houston on Thursday came too late to halt the billionaire businessman.
"I am not sure throwing the whole kitchen sink is going to make much difference in the trajectory of the race," said Ford O'Connell, a GOP strategist not currently working for any presidential candidate. "Political scientists are going to wonder for years why they didn't go after him a lot earlier."
Struggling Jeb Bush Enjoys Larger Crowds
Jeb Bush is low in the polls but is experiencing something new: growing crowds.
The former Florida governor drew his largest crowd in recent memory when he hosted a town hall in Hilton Head, South Carolina, Saturday night, with 530 people in attendance, according to the fire marshal.
Bush typically draws between 100 and 200 people at his town halls so staffers had to search for extra seats. It was the fourth night in a row that Bush aides had to find more seats for a larger-than-expected crowd during a packed swing through New Hampshire and South Carolina -- two states that Bush is counting on to propel his beleaguered campaign forward.
The question is whether last week marked the beginning of 'Jebmentum' or if it's simply an illustration of a more engaged electorate as the primary season gets underway.
Bush's campaign is still mulling whether it can gin up more enthusiasm by bringing out former President George W. Bush on the campaign trail in support of his brother. The 43rd president now has a 77% approval rating among Republicans, according to a Bloomberg Politics poll in November.
Talking to reporters, Bush was asked Saturday night whether he was using his family to its full potential, given the reverence that his supporters express about them at events.
And in a state like South Carolina, which was good for his brother and his dad in their presidential runs, an appearance by George W. Bush might be a wise Hail Mary for Jeb Bush's campaign, said Republican strategist Ford O'Connell.
"Right now he's running out of things to deploy so I think he's willing to throw the kitchen sink at the wall to make it happen," O'Connell said.
"For as maligned as 'W' is in the mainstream media, a lot of conservatives have a soft spot for him," he continued. "It would be about generating buzz but also about generating trust. If anyone has been mauled on this campaign cycle, it's been Jeb. You can't go 15 minutes without Trump mentioning his name, without talk radio mentioning him as a side joke."
