For all the intensity and sharp exchanges viewers saw last Saturday night, the ninth debate between the Republican presidential hopeful changed very little among likely voters in South Carolina, which holds its primary next Saturday (Feb. 20).

According to the latest CBS tracking poll, Donald Trump leads among likely GOP primary voters with 42 percent, followed by Ted Cruz with 20 percent, and John Kasich and Marco Rubio tied for third with 15 percent each. 

In what could possibly spell disaster for Jeb Bush in the state where his father and brother won critical primary wins in 1988 and 2000 respectively, CBS found the Florida governor tied for fourth place with Ben Carson.

Neutral observers to whom I spoke after the debate, in fact, commented more on the rancorous nature of the televised encounter in Greenville, S.C., than on points scored by the six candidates.

“The debate was held at a peace center and there was nothing peaceful about it,” said veteran GOP consultant Ford O’Connell, who has no favorite in the presidential race, “In fact it got down right ornery at times.”

But, O’Connell quickly added, “When a debate descends into complete chaos like this one did at times, Trump wins simply because his supporters will stick with him through thick and thin. That doesn’t mean Trump gained any new supporters tonight, particularly with his 9/11 commentary.”

He added that “Rubio’s performance in Greenville will make voters quickly forget about his previous debate debacle and for him that is all that matters — Rubio just simply has to run faster than Bush and Kasich in the Palmetto State and I think he accomplished that tonight.” 

Read more from John Gizzi at Newsmax

The Iowa caucuses could spell the end of the line for several presidential candidates.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum are the likeliest to pack up if the former Iowa caucus winners have a disappointing finish on Monday.

Iowa could also deal Ben Carson, Rand Paul and Carly Fiorina a crucial blow if they fail to outperform their spot at the polls. But most experts believe they’ll hang on with enough financial resources to pray for a backup plan. 

For Huckabee and Santorum, it’s a matter of money and poor polling.

Both candidates pegged their entire campaign strategy on Iowa, holding the top two spots for number of campaign events there, according to the Des Moines Register. But Huckabee hasn’t hit more than 4 percent in an Iowa poll since November, while Santorum hasn’t done so since July.

The Iowa results could be detrimental to their already lagging fundraising, hastening the need for a departure.

But some Republican strategists say that all of the candidates will wait it out regardless of their Iowa finishes and will continue at least until the Feb. 9 New Hampshire primary, or even through the so-called SEC primary on March 1 to see if their messages resonate in the swing of Southern states.

“I think just about everyone will stay in through New Hampshire because everyone wants to knows how you play with evangelicals in Iowa and how you play with more moderate, mainstream voters in New Hampshire,” Ford O’Connell, a GOP strategist who worked on John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign.

Read more from Ben Kamisar and Lisa Hagen at The Hill

News that two top aides to Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson are resigning less than five weeks before the Iowa caucuses — which could make or break the retired neurosurgeon’s bid — is a clear sign his struggling campaign is in a “nosedive,” an analyst says.

“Campaign shake-ups are nothing new, but when your candidate is depending on winning Iowa and you’re one month out from the caucuses, this is not a good sign for him,” Republican strategist Ford O’Connell told the Herald. “Right now, they’re willing to do anything to stop the bleeding that is going on in the polls. This may make some difference, but I have a feeling that Carson is on a nosedive that there’s no recovery from.”

In a statement, Carson’s campaign described the staff changes as “enhancements” that “will shift the campaign into higher gear” — though O’Connell said he doubts that will be the case.

Read more from Owen Boss at the Boston Herald

Speaking to the Republican Jewish Coalition in Washington, D.C., this month, Donald Trump declined to commit to an undivided Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. Ben Carson, among other things, mispronounced the name of the terrorist group Hamas as "hummus" at the same gathering.

Neither Republican presidential hopeful's address to the group went over particularly well. But for Carson it was part of a growing narrative that verbal miscues were suddenly derailing the retired neurosurgeon's campaign, while Trump remains impervious to them.

Republicans told the Washington Examiner that there is a big difference between Trump's gaffes and Carson's. So far, they said, Trump's missteps aren't undermining his supporters' confidence in the way Carson's are.

"No matter what you think of what he has to say, Trump exudes confidence," said Republican strategist Ford O'Connell. "Carson gets that deer in the headlights look when he makes a mistake or doesn't know what he's talking about. The voters might not know that you're wrong about an issue, but they will recognize a deer in the headlights."

O'Connell also noted that Trump can be adept at walking back untenable positions without acknowledging he has done so. When he proposed his Muslim ban, it was unclear whether American citizens and military personnel would be affected. He has gradually limited its scope in subsequent interviews and emphasized more that it would be a temporary measure, all while insisting that this was always the case.

Read more from W. James Antle III at The Washington Examiner

Ben Carson was riding high in the race for the Republican presidential nomination a month ago, a soft-spoken candidate with an uplifting biography and the outsider credibility that is in fashion this year. His calm demeanor seemed to be a soothing alternative for conservative voters who were not enamored with the idea of Donald J. Trump in the White House.

But after weeks of carnage inflicted by terrorists in France, Mali and Lebanon, doubts about Mr. Carson’s knowledge of the world have reversed his momentum. Now the retired neurosurgeon, whose sudden rise in polls surprised many, is being forced to regroup in the face of mounting evidence that voters are not sold on him.

A new national poll from Quinnipiac University on Wednesday confirmed that Republican voters are keeping their options open. Tied with Mr. Trump in early November, Mr. Carson’s support was down seven percentage points, leaving him essentially tied for second place with Senator Ted Cruz of Texas and Senator Marco Rubio of Florida. Support for Mr. Trump, who continues to lead, grew to 27 percent from 24 percent last month.

“Trump, even when he misspeaks, voters see him as someone who projects strength and confidence,” said Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist who served on Senator John McCain’s presidential campaign in 2008. “Carson’s style is good for his likability, but it does not invest confidence that he can get the job done.”

Read more from Alan Rappeport at The New York Times

Ben Carson is struggling to deal with the increased scrutiny that has come with his run atop the polls.

After spending weeks beating back questions over the veracity of his inspirational back-story, Carson has floundered on the issue of national defense, as the complicated fight against global terror has taken center stage after last week’s attacks in Paris.

Meanwhile, Carson’s campaign has had trouble corralling the myriad advisers and consultants who surround the candidate in his first-ever run for political office.

The sum total has the GOP co-front-runner slipping in the polls, while knocking some of the shine off of a candidate who has otherwise long been the most popular Republican running for president. 

Carson has struggled mightily to elucidate his views on foreign policy, an issue that moved to the forefront at the last GOP debate on Nov. 10 and has taken on heightened importance after last week’s attacks.

“He’s been meandering and confusing on the issue and at times looked like a deer in the headlights,” said Republicans strategist Ford O’Connell. “Foreign policy is one area that you can’t just pick up from a crib sheet and learn. It takes years of study and conversation to be fluent on and he’s not there yet.”

Read more from Jonathan Easley at The Hill

Democratic presidential candidates detailed their plans for combating ISIS Thursday as the focus of the 2016 campaign shifts to national security and foreign policy in the wake of the terrorist attacks in Paris last week.

If voters remain interested in terrorism and national security as a top campaign issue, it could reshape a race that has largely focused on domestic and economic issues so far. How big of a change it will be depends on whether additional attacks occur and which candidates adjust their message most effectively.

In the immediate aftermath of the attacks, some pundits and party insiders suggested that Republican voters would reconsider their support for Donald Trump and Ben Carson, politically inexperienced outsiders who have not displayed a strong grasp of foreign policy issues in debates and interviews.

Political strategists and experts expect it will take a bit more time for the true effects of the Paris attacks on the American electorate to become clear.

"Trump is a unique animal. In his case, it's not yet hurting him," said Republican strategist Ford O'Connell.

Carson's numbers have slipped slightly from the point where he was beating Trump in some polls last month. Although it is hard to pin that on a specific reason, doubts have been raised about Carson's foreign policy knowledge this week by pundits, rivals, and one of his own advisers.

"This is something that you honestly have to be thinking about and talking about for several years...It's very hard to close that learning curve," O'Connell said.

Read more from Stephen Loiaconi at Sinclair Broadcast Group

Donald Trump has dramatically escalated his attacks on his nearest rival for the Republican presidential nomination, Ben Carson. A new Reuters/Ipsos poll may explain why: the billionaire real estate magnate is bleeding support among avid church-goers and women to the retired neurosurgeon. 

While the unconstrained Trump has a comfortable double-digit lead over the soft-spoken Carson, the data points to a possible emerging threat to Trump's hopes of capturing the party's nomination for the November 2016 election. 

The poll of likely Republican primary voters also shows that Carson is drawing strong support from the rural Midwest, including Iowa, which holds the first Republican nominating contest on Feb. 1. Trump, in contrast, is drawing strong support in the northeast and southeast.

"If Carson keeps his nose clean he could win those states and could catch lightning in a bottle," said Ford O'Connell, a Republican strategist not affiliated with either campaign.

Carson's growing support with women and blue collar voters may explain Trump's recent attacks on his rival, said O'Connell. Trump has highlighted media reports questioning elements of Carson's personal story, and on Thursday he called Carson "pathological" and likened him to a child molester.

"Trump is desperate to consolidate the 'outsider' vote. The blue collar vote is very, very key to Trump's success in that. He has tried everything to shake Carson off and it hasn't worked, so he has decided to go nuclear," said O'Connell, an advisor to Republican Senator John McCain's 2008 presidential campaign.

Read more from Tim Reid and Chris Kahn at Reuters

Attacking the media rather than answering reporters' questions may be an effective approach for Republican presidential candidates like Dr. Ben Carson at this point in a campaign, but political scientists and Republican strategists say the tactic has limitations in the long run.

Carson faced increasing scrutiny last week after he took a lead over Donald Trump in two national polls, but his campaign pushed back hard when reporters raised doubts about certain aspects of his biography. He then thanked the "biased media" on Twitter for helping him raise $3.5 million in a week.

Political communications experts and strategists agree that the scrutiny Carson is under is appropriate and expected given his place in the polls, but they also say complaining about alleged media bias can be a highly effective short-term strategy, especially in a Republican primary.

"It's been effective since Nixon [was] doing it," said Ford O'Connell, a Republican strategist. However, he added candidates need to be cautious about how often they rely on it.

"It's one thing to complain every now and then...When you do it all the time, you start to look defensive and weak."

Read more from Stephen Loiaconi at Sinclair Broadcast Group

Candidates in the Republican primary field are getting ready for their fourth debate, and on Tuesday Dr. Ben Carson is likely to face more difficult questioning than he’s seen so far in his campaign. The retired neurosurgeon has breached the top of the Republican pack and has already been the subject of deep media scrutiny over suspicions that he mischaracterized portions of his past.

Carson’s approval seems resilient to the attacks for now, an possible indication that his supporters may be less concerned with the notion that he’s not being completely truthful than they are with what has been characterized as attacks on Republicans from liberal media. But while Carson may be wise to take a hard stance against his media criticism at this point, crisis communications experts say his campaign needs to be wary of the potential for things to spiral out of control.

For now, Carson’s message and defense of his biographical anecdotes will likely resonate with Republican primary voters who are deeply distrustful of mainstream media outlets posing questions about his history. Eventually, the nominating process could lead him to face more moderate voters who may not be so readily accepting of his defense that it’s all a misinterpretation by journalists.

“Carson is No. 1 because basically there isn’t anyone in the Republican electorate who doesn’t like him and if he loses that likeability factor he’s going to go south fast,” Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist who worked for the 2008 McCain-Palin presidential campaign, said. “He’s got to cut down on the verbal miscues. He’s been given a lot of leeway and thus far they have not hurt him. But eventually the political laws of gravity are going to kick in. Everything else [he] say[s] is going to be magnified now.”

Read more from Clark Mindock at International Business Times