Sabato: Obama Starts With 247 Electoral Votes

I noted last week at U.S. News & World Report that Team Romney has very little room to maneuver on the electoral map in terms of getting to the all-important number of 270. Political pognosticator and fellow UVA alum Larry Sabato has confirmed my suspicions. From Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball:

Based on our analysis, Obama starts with a presumed base of 247 electoral votes, just 23 short of the magic number of 270 — but not all of them are truly secure. Romney starts with a much firmer but not ironclad 206. The election will be decided mainly in seven states with 85 toss-up votes.

To show how little the presidential campaign turf has changed since 2008, all seven of the toss-ups are states that Obama won in 2008. Obama captured 28 states then (plus the District of Columbia), and in only eight of those did he win by less than 10 percentage points. Given Obama’s middling approval ratings this year and the uncertainty in the economy, the two states where his 2008 triumphs were closest — Indiana and North Carolina — are now favored to go to Romney, and the other six states where Obama won by less than 10 points are toss-ups. Obama won the seventh toss-up, Nevada, by about 12.5 percentage points.


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published this page in In The News 2012-04-26 10:32:00 -0400
Analysis & Political Strategy