PPP: Sluggish Start To GOP 2012 Increases Chances Of Dark Horse Nominee

A lot has gone on with the potential 2012 Presidential contenders over the last year. They’ve given speeches, written books, generated controversy, you name it. One thing they haven’t done? Move the poll numbers at all in Iowa or New Hampshire. Nothing that’s gone on during this sort of pre-campaign has seriously moved the needle for the Republican primary in either of those states.

First consider Iowa. We polled there in late May and then again this month. Here’s how the candidates’ standing compares between then and now:

Candidate May 2010 January 2011 Shift
Mike Huckabee 27% 30% +3
Sarah Palin 17% 15% -2
Newt Gingrich 16% 13% -3
Mitt Romney 15% 18% +3
Ron Paul 7% 6% -1
John Thune 2% 3% +1

No one who was included in both polls has seen their support rise or fall more than 3 points, movement that is certainly within the margin of error.

It’s a similar story in New Hampshire where we first polled the Republican field in April of last year and most recently looked at it at the very end of October:

Candidate April 2010 October 2010 Shift
Mitt Romney 39% 40% +1
Mike Huckabee 11% 13% +2
Newt Gingrich 11% 10% -1
Sarah Palin 13% 10% -3
Tim Pawlenty 3% 4% +1

Just like in Iowa no one’s moved more than three points in any direction. That’s just noise.

Read more at Public Policy Polling

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