Polls Suggest Clinton-Trump Race Tightening

A slew of new polls released on Wednesday indicate a tightening race for the White House and suggest Donald Trump is closing the gap with Hillary Clinton in several swing states.

An NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll found the two tied in Ohio with each getting 39 percent. In Iowa, it showed Clinton with a three-point lead, outpacing Trump 42 percent to 39 percent.

In Pennsylvania, the NBC poll found Clinton holding a larger, nine-point lead in a must-win state for Trump, but a different poll released earlier on Wednesday from Quinnipiac University showed Trump with a two-point lead. 

Quinnipiac also had Trump up by three points in Florida, a significant change from its poll of a month ago that represented a double-digit uptick for the Republican.

Both polls had the two tied in Ohio. Many believe the state is a must-win for Trump, given the fact that no Republican candidate has ever won the White House without winning the Buckeye State.

While the totality of the polling suggest Clinton is still the favorite to get to 270 electoral votes, they also suggested she might have been hurt by the past week. 

Trump’s path to success lies in convincing swing state voters, especially independents, that the election is a referendum on Clinton’s trustworthiness, said Ford O’Connell, a strategist who supports the presumptive GOP nominee.

“He’s doing extremely well with independents, and if he can keep that going, he’s in great shape because what I think a lot of people misperceive about independents, they are not necessarily moderate voters, they are Republicans and Democrats who both think that the parties have left them behind,” O’Connell said. 

“And what he has to do if he wants to capitalize on that is find a way to get in the driver's seat and essentially make this a referendum, not on himself which is what Hillary’s done so far but make it on her or what they perceive is a rigged system.”

Read more from Harper Neidig at The Hill

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Analysis & Political Strategy