Odds Of A Brokered Convention Are Increasing

From RealClearPolitics' Sean Trende:

We're finally close enough to Super Tuesday to get a sense of how the overall delegate count might work out in the GOP primary. The end result: Assuming that none of the four candidates drops out of the race, it looks increasingly as if no one will be able to claim a majority of the delegates. The candidate with the best chance is Mitt Romney, but he probably wouldn't be able to wrap up the nomination until May or even June. The other candidates will probably have to hope for a brokered convention.

In short, I think the Republican primary campaign is an even bigger mess than most realize. I’d increase the odds of a convention where no candidate has a majority of the delegates to around 20 percent.

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published this page in In The News 2012-02-29 20:00:00 -0500
Analysis & Political Strategy