Has Gingrich Lost Momentum In Florida?

Newt Gingrich is trailing Mitt Romney in the Real Clear Politics polling average ahead of the Jan. 31 Florida Republican presidential primary. It seems that Gingrich is losing momentum from his decisive victory in South Carolina last week. This could of course change, if Gingrich has a great debate performance tonight in Jacksonville, Florida. FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver chimes in:

[I]t looks as though Mr. Gingrich’s surge may have reached its apogee over the weekend — timed perfectly for his big win in South Carolina, but not necessarily for one in Florida next week.

Meanwhile, some of the anecdotal evidence still seems quite favorable for Mr. Gingrich: he has drawn much larger crowds than Mr. Romney to his events in Florida, for instance, which could be a sign that his voters are more enthusiastic and more likely to turn out.

And yet, that volatility suggests that even if Mr. Gingrich has lost the momentum, he might easily regain it again — for instance, if he performs well at the next debate on Thursday.

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published this page in In The News 2012-01-26 16:55:00 -0500
Analysis & Political Strategy