Here's Why The Once Solidly Republican State Of Texas Could Become A Ticking Time Bomb For Trump's GOP

The 2020 presidential election is projected to have record voter turnout, and the long-time Republican stronghold of Texas is shaping up to be a battleground state.

Republicans' margins of victory in the state have been narrowing over the course of the last few election cycles, especially in Texas' suburban areas.

And over the course of just a few weeks in July, four incumbent Republican congressmen all decided to call it quits and not run for re-election in 2020 in what some commentators have termed a "Texodus."

Not only do retirements automatically make many seats more competitive, but Texas is currently experiencing two trends that are favorable to Democrats: increasing urbanization, and big demographic shifts.

Ford O'Connell, a veteran GOP campaign strategist and adjunct professor at George Washington University's Graduate School of Political Management, told INSIDER that while the increase in the state's Latino population is an important demographic change, Texas' current leftward shift can be attributed more to white suburbanites breaking with President Donald Trump's Republican party.

"The narrative that Hispanics will turn Texas blue may eventually happen, but that's not moving as fast as the fact that college-educated whites are telling us they don't like Donald Trump," O'Connell said.

"Texas' cities are getting bigger in areas like Houston, Dallas, and Austin, it's the white folks in Texas whose votes are changing," O'Connell said. "You have more college-educated voters in those cities because they also have booming economies, and it's these college-educated whites who don't like Donald Trump."

Read more from Grace Pancetta at Business Insider

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published this page in In The News 2019-08-20 09:54:51 -0400
Analysis & Political Strategy