Even if President Obama’s reelection chances currently stand at about 60 percent, November 2012 is still a long ways off and there is a lot of potentially hostile terrain for the president to navigate.
Obama’s reelection hinges on a specific set of issues: the state of the U.S. economy (jobs), government spending/budget deficit, energy prices, health care and national security. Whichever candidate breaks out of the GOP 2012 presidential field must credibly make the argument that he or she is a superior alternative to Obama. Voters are certainly frustrated, but the X factor in all of this will be the Obama’s “likeability” with the national electorate.
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