Dem Bill Nelson Up By Double Digits In Florida U.S. Senate Race

If the GOP is to take control of the U.S. Senate in 2012, they will likely need to make a strong showing in the Florida U.S. Senate race. The latest news from Democratic polling firm Public Policy Polling (PPP) is not a good sign for Republicans heading into next year.

Several Florida Senate polls conducted shortly after Connie Mack IV’s entry into the race found a toss up contest, but PPP’s newest look finds that any announcement bump Mack may have received has now receded.  Bill Nelson leads him by a 46-35 margin. That’s pretty consistent with two earlier polls of a Nelson/Mack match that PPP had conducted. In March we found Nelson with a 13 point advantage and last December we found him ahead by 9 points.

Nelson has two big things going for him in a match against Mack.  One is that he wins 14% of the Republican vote, an unusual amount of crossover support for a Democrat.  The other is that he has a 42/33 advantage with independent voters. 22% of Republicans are undecided compared to only 13% of Democrats so this race will likely tighten up once the GOP unites around a candidate, but for now Nelson has a healthy lead.

Nelson has healthy leads against the rest of the Republican field as well- 47-32 against Mike McCalister and George LeMieux, 48-33 against Adam Hasner, and 49-30 against Craig Miller. It’s going to have to be a pretty bad year for Democrats nationally in order for Nelson to be defeated.

Comments are closed.