August: The 2012 Electoral Map

Republican challenger Mitt Romney certainly has his work cut out for him. From NBC's First Read:

One way to look at the nine toss-up states is in the likelihood of Romney being able to flip them from blue to red. Here’s our list (from most likely to least likely):

1. North Carolina
2. Iowa
3. Florida
4. Colorado
5. Virginia
6. Nevada
7. Ohio
8. Wisconsin
9. New Hampshire

What’s striking about this list is if you give Romney the Top 4 (NC, IA, FL, and CO) that only gets him to 250 electoral votes. And if you give him the next two on the list (VA and NV), he’s still one short of 270 (bringing us to that 269-269 tie). That means he has to put one of Ohio, Wisconsin, or New Hampshire into the mix to get past 270. Bottom line: Romney’s map to 270 is more thandoable, but it’s also a high-wire act. By the way, we were debating whether to put Wisconsin ahead of Ohio (given the polls below), but what wins out -- for now -- is that the Obama and Romney campaigns aren’t advertising there right now. 

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published this page in In The News 2012-08-23 15:00:00 -0400
Analysis & Political Strategy