Why Trump Has Reason For Optimism In 2020

President Trump is rolling into a post-Independence Day weekend at his Bedminster, N.J., property with reason to feel good about himself and his reelection prospects for 2020.

A number of things are going Trump’s way, leaving him better positioned for victory in a second term.

The first is the economy, which is showing little sign of slowing down.

Top White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said Friday that the recent stock rally and strong jobs report proved that Trump's policies have fueled "a very strong prosperity cycle."

All of this is good news for an incumbent president.

As GOP strategist Ford O’Connell wrote in The Hill this week, the power of incumbency is already a huge predictor. Only a handful of presidents running for reelection have lost since 1900. The number who have lost while managing a strong economy are fewer.

It’s no wonder Trump was in a good mood on Friday. 

The second good thing going for Trump is the divisive Democratic presidential primary. 

The White House clearly fears former Vice President Joe Biden, a centrist seen as a strong potential nominee in the swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, which Trump took from Democrats in 2016.

Similarly, they are delighted to see Democrats talking about providing health care to immigrants who are in the country illegally, seeing it as an issue that will motivate Trump voters to go to the polls and one that could lose Democrats the support of independents.

Read more from Ian Swanson, Sylvan Lane and Julia Manchester

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Analysis & Political Strategy