Why Most Nevada Polls Are Garbage

From Jon Ralston at Ralston Reports:

A few words about all of these polls on the presidential race in Nevada: Don’t believe them.

Sound familiar? Yes, I was telling you the same thing two years ago when every poll (almost) showed Sharron Angle would be the next U.S. senator from Nevada. That didn’t happen, and all of those polls were wrong for different reasons, which eventually comes down to the same reason:

You hear the cliché all the time that polls are snapshots in time. That is true, but it also highlights the basic problem with most polls. That snapshot may be worth a thousand words, but only when the picture is taken. So the best pollsters – this is the key – know how to weight the results to fit the picture that will exist on Election Day – that is, what the turnout actually will look like.

Despite what all of those polls say, Romney's path to victory in Nevada now is much more problematic than any Republican will acknowledge.

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Analysis & Political Strategy