Which 2012 Presidential Swing States Are Most Up For Grabs?

Things can always change, and between now and Election Day 2012 they will several times over. But I have to hand it to Fox News' Chris Stirewalt, his current presidential swing state analysis is on the mark. Of course, much of this depends on the state of the economy on Election Day 2012 and who GOP primary voters nominate as the party's standard-bearer. Note: I am fairly certain that New Mexico will go for Obama, at least for now.

While Obama continues to tie or lead national polls, his performance in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin matters more. And there, things are not so good for the incumbent.

Obama won all 12 of the swing states in 2008, but how many of them will he win again?

He has structural advantages and history on his side in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania (though all three states skewed heavily Republican statewide in 2010). Polls and electoral trends suggest the president is unlikely to prevail in Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire and North Carolina.

That leaves Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio and Virginia as the swingingest swing states and Obama trailing in electoral votes 245 to 242 with 51 up for grabs. And there, team Obama will be counting on the most expensive, aggressive and negative re-election campaign ever waged.

And that’s where there’s real trouble in the poll for Obama in this poll.

Since 2008, swing state voters have become 9 percent less Democratic. When Obama won the swing states by 8 points, Democrats boasted an 11-point party identification edge. Now it’s down to 2-points.



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@FordOConnell tweeted link to this page. 2011-12-14 11:34:37 -0500
Which 2012 Presidential Swing States Are Most Up For Grabs? - http://t.co/GAZMCded #TCOT #GOP
@CivicForumPAC tweeted link to this page. 2011-12-14 11:34:36 -0500
Which 2012 Presidential Swing States Are Most Up For Grabs? - http://t.co/pNcf6kqU #TCOT #GOP
published this page in In The News 2011-12-14 11:27:00 -0500
Analysis & Political Strategy