Turnout Will Likely Decide 2012 Battle For White House

Think: Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire. From Gallup:

That underscores the importance of turnout by the party groups in the Nov. 6 election, given that views of the president are largely fixed. Another key in determining Obama's electoral fate may be which side of the 50% approval mark independent voters wind up on; they have been very near 50% approval in recent weeks.

Party Polarization in Presidential Job Approval Ratings, Incumbent Presidents, October of Election Year

 

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Analysis & Political Strategy