Trump’s Path To Victory Depends On Surge Of White Men

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump needs a surge of white working-class voters to beat Hillary Clinton in November.

Clinton has significant leads over Trump among minority voters and women, and is handily defeating him with white college-educated women.

That puts pressure on Trump to win white men like no other candidate in recent history.

Trump believes his anti-trade, anti-immigration message will be popular with white, working-class voters in Pennsylvania and Ohio, and that it could help him compete in other Rust Belt states such as Michigan and Wisconsin.

His electoral strategy revolves around winning Pennsylvania, something the Republican nominee hasn’t done since 1988. Michigan and Wisconsin have also been reliably Democratic states for decades.

Trump would seem to face tough prospects.  

Ford O’Connell, a GOP strategist who worked on Arizona Sen. John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign, thinks Trump has to win 63 percent of the white vote, a higher share than 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney won.

“He needs to perform 4 percent better among white voters than Romney did,” said O’Connell, who predicts white voters will make up around 70 percent of November’s electorate.

Read more from Alexander Bolton at The Hill

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Analysis & Political Strategy