For nearly a year and a half, Virginia Republicans have attempted to tie President Obama around the neck of U.S. Senate hopeful Tim Kaine in hopes of dragging down the Democratic ticket in this potentially pivotal battleground state. But after Mitt Romney went to Norfolk on Saturday to announce his running mate, Democrats say they have been handed a corresponding target of opportunity in the person of Paul Ryan.

The logic of the GOP strategy of using Obama to undermine Kaine has always depended on a leap of faith for which there was little empirical evidence: Obama carried the Old Dominion by seven percentage points in 2008 and is still relatively popular there. Likewise, the Democratic Party’s emerging strategy of demonizing Rep. Ryan simply assumes that Virginia voters know who he is and are hostile to his idea of reining in federal entitlement spending.

Allen’s main strategy during this campaign has been to nationalize the race and pin his opponent, a former governor but also a former Democratic National Committee chairman, to health care reform, the stimulus package, and the president’s energy policy.

Unlike Kaine, Allen had to first beat back challengers in his party for the Senate nomination, and was cautious about fully embracing Romney and taking a position on the Ryan budget. “George Allen is understandably hesitant and wants to run on his own brand,” says Ford O’Connell, a Virginia-based Republican strategist, noting that seniors constitute 12 percent of Virginia’s population.

In a race expected to remain neck-and-neck until November, given the strong brands both Allen and Kaine have in the state, “literally both candidates are fighting over inches in the commonwealth,” says O’Connell. “In a lot of ways, the next 30 days could really define the race. And the question is whether Romney and Ryan can beat back the ‘Medi-scare’ tactics. If they can, Allen will be in great shape.”

Read more from Caitlin Huey-Burns at RealClearPolitics

From Quinnipiac University:

Wisconsin: Obama 51%, Romney 45%

Colorado: Romney 50%, Obama 45%

Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 45%

In the battle for the White House, it appears there is little that the media can agree upon when it comes to the 2012 battleground states. Only two states appeared on the lists of each of the dozen media outlets under analysis: Florida and Virginia. From Smart Politics: 

Toss-Up States by Media Outlet in 2012 Presidential Electoral Projection Maps

A former House Republican lawmaker could siphon votes from Mitt Romney in the battleground state of Virginia and boost President Obama’s chances of winning a second term.

Former five-term Rep. Virgil Goode, who represented southwest Virginia’s 5th District, has a strong chance of making it on the state’s general election ballot. That would set up a potential Ralph Nader-like spoiler scenario circa 2000.

At that time, then-Vice President Al Gore, the Democratic presidential nominee, lost the state of Florida by fewer than 600 votes to former President George W. Bush. Nader, a liberal third-party candidate, won nearly 100,000 votes in the Sunshine State.

A similar scenario could play out in Virginia if Goode’s name appears on the ballot in November, according to a recent poll.

According to a Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey of Virginia voters, Goode would win 9 percent of the vote, with Romney winning 35 percent to Obama’s 49 percent, with a margin of error of 3.9 percent.

“Goode is a household name in the 5th district, and could be Romney’s worst nightmare if he qualifies for the ballot,” GOP political operative Ford O’Connell told The Hill.

After all, O’Connell says, “for Obama, Virginia is not a must. But for Romney, it is a must have in terms of winning the White House.”

Read more from Molly K. Hooper at The Hill

During a tour of small businesses on this town's quaint West Main Street, Susan Allen introduces herself to a female passerby and encourages the woman to support her husband George's U.S. Senate bid. After chatting, the woman notices Allen's opal ring and asks if it is her birthstone. No, she answers with a smile; it was simply a gift from her husband. "It's just George being sweet."

Now he is competing for his old seat in one of the closest and most closely watched races in the country. His political comeback depends on appealing to a broader and more diverse electorate than he needed in past elections -- namely, women and independents. The campaign has been working to soften Allen’s image, and to introduce a more personal side of a man prone to putting his cowboy-booted foot in his mouth. And no one can sell this aspect of George Allen better than his wife, whom advisers and political observers call his greatest asset.

“If he wins this race, it’s in large part thanks to her,” says Ford O'Connell, a Virginia-based Republican strategist who worked on the McCain-Palin campaign four years ago. “She helps soften some of the reservations people may have. It’s a little bit about ‘Hey, you trust my wife.’ . . . I think she is really one of the best things going for him on the campaign trail.”

The presidential race in Virginia could very well determine the results of down-ballot races in November. Analysts, though, say they can much better imagine a Kaine-Romney split than an Allen-Obama scenario, which doesn’t bode well for the Republican Senate contender. It is difficult to tell yet if Susan Allen’s efforts are moving voters. “If Allen wants to make this a race [in which] people disregard what’s going on at the top of the ticket, it’s going to be his wife that helps him do it,” says O'Connell, the Virginia strategist.

Read more from Catlin Huey-Burns at RealClearPolitics

Ask Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell about his vice presidential ambitions and his answer is invariably, I have the best job in the world, one held by Patrick Henry and Thomas Jefferson.

But that job ends in 2014, as Virginia law forbids its governors from serving two consecutive terms. And his record in that position -- leading a key swing state with high approval ratings and a record of increasing jobs and decreasing deficits -- makes him an attractive candidate. Plus, as chairman of the Republican Governors Association, McDonnell has become a national party figurehead.

Some observers say McDonnell could even outperform Romney in talking about jobs and the economy, issues at the center of the presumptive nominee’s campaign and the foremost concern among voters. (Unemployment in Virginia dropped to 5.6 percent in April, down 1.7 percent since McDonnell took office in January 2010.) And he brings the military service and ties to conservative Christians that Romney lacks.

But his personal history of social conservatism -- ranging from a controversial graduate school thesis on family to the recent abortion-related ultrasound bill passed in Virginia -- may doom his prospects.

Having said that, there are still many months to go until the election. And while it’s unclear when Romney will chose a running mate, the issues happening at the time he makes that decision will be important. If jobs and the economy are still the focus of the election, McDonnell may be best positioned for the job. “You want to balance or augment the ticket with the person who is No. 2, and in a lot of ways, given that jobs and the economy are so big, you almost want to bolster that with someone that’s trusted,” says Ford O’Connell, a Virginia-based GOP strategist who worked on the McCain-Palin campaign.

McDonnell is also viewed as a polished politician who won’t overshadow Romney on the stump, and someone who piously stays on message, says O’Connell. In an age where presidential candidates might be concerned about their running mates going rogue, McDonnell is a safe choice.

The question, though, remains: Does he have to be Romney’s running mate in order to deliver Virginia, or can the GOP nominee win it with the governor just as a surrogate?

“I think Bob is loyal to the party and he obviously is somebody who could help Mitt Romney no matter what,” says O’Connell.

Read more from Caitlin Huey-Burns at RealClearPolitics

A follow on to what we said last week at The Hill. From Peter Hamby at CNN:

Strategists for Barack Obama and Mitt Romney don't see eye to eye on much, but they do agree on this: It's tough to envision a path to the White House that doesn't include Virginia.

And as they look for ways to tip the balance in November, an unlikely bellwether is emerging in the heart of Virginia: Henrico County, a longtime conservative bastion that has mutated into a key barometer for political watchers in the commonwealth.

"It's the battleground county in the battleground state," said state Sen. Donald McEachin, a Democrat whose district encompasses parts of Henrico. "When you look at Democratic success over the past few years, whether it's Tim Kaine, Mark Warner or the president, what they all have in common is, they carried Henrico."

Henrico's swing status was affirmed in 2009, when Bob McDonnell wrested the county back into Republican control in the governor's race just one year after Obama won it during his march to the White House.

For operatives in both political parties, the county's shift from conservative to competitive is striking.

Along with Hanover and Chesterfield, Henrico is one of three populous suburban counties outside the heavily African-American city of Richmond that were long counted on to deliver big Republican tallies in statewide races.

When Mitt Romney stopped in Virginia last week he said, “This may well be the state [that] decides who the next president is.” 

At least he understands the stakes.

Barring a collapse by either Romney or President Obama, the popular vote will be close. Major polls are all within the margin of error and likely to stay that way.

But it’s not about the popular vote. It’s about the Electoral College – and there, President Obama has a decided advantage right now.

Almost all prognosticators agree the election is largely over in at least 35 states. The Wasington Post's Chris Cillizza says it’s largely decided in 43.

That’s what makes Virginia so important. If President Obama wins the Old Dominion again, it would mean he could lose Ohio or Florida – perhaps even both – and still win re-election. Romney’s opportunities to flip a state and make up ground – Michigan and Pennsylvania – are longer shots. He must have Virginia to win.

It won’t be easy because both sides expect to win yet know it will require tremendous resources to do so. 

Read more from Ford O'Connell and J.R. Hoeft At The Hill

Both Obama and Romney are gunning for Virginia. For Obama, it represents an electoral need. For Romney, Virginia is a must win if we wants to get to 270 electoral votes. Politico's Ginger Gibson weighs in:

Just look at the candidates’ schedules. President Obama will make Richmond the site of his kickoff campaign rally this Saturday and, as he often does, will motorcade across the Potomac on Friday for an official event in Northern Virginia, this one devoted to student loans at an Arlington high school. Mitt Romney has two stops in Virginia lined up this week, Wednesday in Northern Virginia and Thursday in Hampton Roads, and he will also be in Lynchburg to speak to graduates of Liberty University next week.

Both campaigns are also moving swiftly to build their organizations. Romney recently brought his Iowa state director, Sara Craig, to helm Virginia and his team hopes to open at least a dozen field offices in the next month. Obama has had a Richmond-based staff in place for months and just opened up his 13th field office last month. The action on the ground is mirrored on the air – Obama’s campaign and Romney’s super PAC are already broadcasting commercials in the state.

Virginia Republicans all say publicly that they believe Romney will put the state back in the GOP column, but many will concede privately that the general election begins with Obama a few points ahead. Both sides believe that Obama’s advantage is something less than the 8 points a Public Policy Polling survey had him ahead by this week. Republicans acknowledge that they’ve got work to do following an ugly primary season and Democrats are feeling more upbeat thanks to a resurgent economy in the state, the gender-related controversies that arose during the legislative session this winter and the distance from the Washington-spurred 2009 and 2010 backlash.

Say hello to - Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. From The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza:

This year will not be like 2008, at least as far as the electoral map is concerned.

Let’s start with the states that are genuinely a tossup. Our analysis suggests that nine of them fit well in that swing category: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Republicans will, rightly, point to history in these nine states — a view that suggests at least the possibility that Obama’s 2008 victory was anomalous. Before his wins in 2008, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia had all voted for the Republican presidential nominee in the previous two elections.

If all six of those states revert to their 2000/2004 form, Republicans carry Indiana (as seems likely) and Obama wins no other state that he lost in 2008 (as seems likely), the incumbent would drop to 258 electoral votes and lose the presidency. But if Obama wins any one among Florida, North Carolina, Ohio or Virginia, he will be reelected.

If Romney can turn Wisconsin — and its 10 electoral votes — or Michigan (16) or Pennsylvania (20) to his side while also winning the vast majority of the six swing states mentioned above, he will have a bit more wiggle room for a national victory.

There’s no doubt that the 2012 playing field will be narrower than the one Obama dominated in 2008. But the president still retains far more flexibility than Romney in building a map that adds up to 270 electoral votes.