Step One For Gillespie: Unite Virginia’s GOP
Before he can take on Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie will have to unite a fractious Virginia GOP.
Gillespie’s interest in a Senate campaign has excited national Republicans, who expect him to run. But the commonwealth’s nomination process, a June convention of GOP activists, has often boosted hard-line Tea Party and social conservatives over those preferred by national strategists, which has led to disastrous results for the party.
That process helped former state Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli (R) scare off then-Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R), a more centrist candidate, from running for governor, and nominated controversial Rev. E.W. Jackson (R) as Cuccinelli’s running mate. Both lost in the fall as Democrats swept statewide offices for the first time in decades.
A closer-than-expected Cuccinelli loss left both sides pointing fingers. Tea Party activists said the national party had abandoned them by not spending enough, while establishment Republicans said Cuccinelli had disqualified himself and cost the party an otherwise winnable race.
While Gillespie would give Republicans a top-tier candidate to take on the popular senator and former governor, first the longtime GOP strategist will have to smooth over tensions between the camps.
GOP strategist Ford O’Connell said Gillespie’s early moves — keeping a relatively low profile and meeting with activists before making an announcement — could help endear him to activists.
“He has to go in there and really do a lot of groundwork with the people who are going to be in the convention,” he said.
5 Things Republicans Need To Learn From Virginia And New Jersey
As journalists across the country struggle to put meaning to the Virginia and New Jersey races that occurred earlier this week, I see five lessons Republicans of all stripes need to learn quickly – as in, before any more elections are held.
1) Campaign like an amateur, lose to a Clinton goon: Did the Republican Party give up on Ken Cuccinelli too early? Perhaps, although it couldn't exactly have planned for the Obamacare launch to go so cosmically bad. Was the Libertarian candidate a stalking horse? Also perhaps, but he appears to havedrawn votes roughly equally from Cuccinelli and former Clinton bagman and now Gov.-elect Terry McAuliffe.
But, even though McAuliffe was a dog with serious and well-known fleas, Cuccinelli's truly hapless campaign allowed the Democrat to paint their man as an extremist and a brigadier general in the War on Women. It's not the issues that must be thrown overboard to win – equally pro-life Chris Christie captured 60 percent of the vote in even-bluer New Jersey, and Bob McDonnell dominated four years earlier on a firm pro-life platform. It is that voters sensed Cuccinelli was distancing himself from his own issues. If he didn't want to be near them, they didn't either.
What Christie And McAuliffe Mean For 2016
It may be three years away, but the 2016 presidential election cast a long shadow over the races for governor in New Jersey and Virginia. Now the results are in, it begs the question: What does the re-election of a Republican governor in true blue New Jersey and the election of a high-profile Hillary Clinton ally in deep purple Virginia tell us about the next presidential contest?
On Tuesday night, the popular and larger-than-life Republican Governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie, trounced a little-known middle-ground Democratic state senator by winning over large swathes of women and minority voters who are typically wary of today's GOP, the party that largely caters to old white males.
Two hundred miles southwest in Virginia, Democrat Terry McAuliffe, a close ally of Hillary and Bill Clinton, eked out a victory over Tea Party favorite Ken Cuccinelli, largely by running up the score with single women.
It may be three years away, but the 2016 presidential election cast a long shadow over the races for governor in New Jersey and Virginia. Now the results are in, it begs the question: What does the re-election of a Republican governor in true blue New Jersey and the election of a high-profile Hillary Clinton ally in deep purple Virginia tell us about the next presidential contest?
Among the Republican establishment, Christie's message was heard loud and clear. "It shows the Republicans that if you can expand the tent of voters, you can go to great places," said Republican strategist Ford O'Connell. Those margins are "like Neil Armstrong walking on the moon if you're a Republican."
That message, O'Connell said, was only made stronger by what happened in Virginia, where Cuccinelli, the Tea Party candidate, narrowly lost to former Democratic Party Chairman Terry McAuliffe in a race that pitted an ultraconservative Republican against a weak, widely distrusted Democrat. "What it shows you is if you want to win, regardless of the circumstances, you're going to have to get beyond the base," O'Connell said.
Democrat McAuliffe Elected Virginia Governor
Democrat Terry McAuliffe has won the Virginia governor's race, in a close victory over Tea Party conservative Ken Cuccinelli.
With 97 precincts reporting late Tuesday, McAuliffe edged out Cuccinelli 47 to 46 percent.
Republican strategist Ford O'Connell says Cuccinelli's appeal to ultraconservatives in the Virginia race may have been his downfall.
"Terry McAuliffe was a very flawed candidate, and Ken Cuccinelli had a great chance of winning this race, but unfortunately his appeal was limited solely to the conservative Tea Party base, and he could never get out of his own way and move forward and appeal to a broader set of voters."
'Enormous' Gender Gap Costs Cuccinelli, Republicans In Virginia
Democrat Terry McAuliffe appears on the cusp of a solid victory over Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli (R) following a gubernatorial campaign that underscored ongoing Republican struggles with female voters.
McAuliffe’s lead in the polls was built on a clear gender gap. The Democrat exploited a big fundraising edge to deluge the airwaves with ads focused on Cuccinelli’s opposition to abortion, his views on contraception and his failure to support the federal Violence Against Women Act.
Cuccinelli sought to refute the Democratic theme — that he has waged a “war on women” — with ads featuring an African American woman calling McAuliffe’s attacks on his social stances “ridiculous.”
“Cuccinelli couldn't get out of his own way and got slimed with the war on women attack,” says GOP strategist Ford O’Connell. “He never got outside the conservative echo chamber.”
Mitt Romney was hurt by the same argument, as were a number of Senate candidates in 2012.
Poll: McAuliffe Leads Cuccinelli In 2013 Virginia Governor's Race
From Julian Walker at PilotOnline.com:
Virginia's marquee race next year is the gubernatorial race which, according to the poll, is a statistical dead heat with Democratic businessman Terry McAuliffe narrowly ahead of Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli 43 percent to 42 percent.
The [Public Opinion Strategies] survey found 15 percent of likely voters in that contest are undecided.
O’Connell: Romney Can Still Win Ohio (Video)
The surprise of the election will be whether Mitt Romney can win Ohio and if he does he will be the next president, GOP strategist and former McCain-Palin presidential campaign adviser Ford O’Connell told Newsmax TV.
O’Connell, who is a [GOP] strategist...and chairman of the CivicForum PAC, said it’s too early to put Ohio in President Barack Obama’s column.
“Everybody’s down on it,” he said. “They’re putting Ohio in President Obama’s category. I’m not sure that Ohio is really gone to Obama yet. If Mitt Romney wins Ohio, guess what? He’s going to be the next president of the United States.
Click here to read article and see video interview from Newsmax's Patrick Hobin and Kathleen Walter
Pundits: Mitt Romney Can Still Spin Way Out Of Woes
Mitt Romney’s struggle to deal with the “47 percent” problem has so far left his campaign — and fellow Republicans — flat-footed, but the GOP nominee could still use the tough talk to his advantage in battleground states with the right strategy, pundits told the Herald.
“It does certainly put them in an uncomfortable position, but that’s only if they continue to act as if this isn’t an obvious fact about the world,” said Dennis Hale, a political science professor at Boston College.
“It has come up occasionally in other contexts that it’s not healthy, the fact that just under half of the public pays no income taxes.”
Republican operative Ford O’Connell said there’s still time, but the window is closing: “They’re not making inroads to win Ohio and Virginia. They just have not found that compelling narrative.”
Keep An Eye On Third Party Presidential Candidates
From Julie Hirschfeld Davis at Bloomberg:
Virgil Goode, an anti-immigration southerner, and Gary Johnson, a pro-marijuana southwesterner, have little in common, save one thing: They both are seeking to shake up the American presidential race as third-party candidates.
While they have no chance to win the Nov. 6 election, the tight race between President Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney may create the right circumstances for one of them -- or both -- to pull just enough votes in a key state to sway the contest.
The greater risk is for Romney, whose chances of winning the battleground state of Virginia may diminish with Goode, a Democrat-turned-Republican and former U.S. House representative from the Old Dominion, on the ballot.
“If he’s going to hurt anybody, he’s going to hurt Romney,” said Quentin Kidd, government department chairman at Christopher Newport University in Newport News, Virginia, who added that Goode’s vote will amount to a “haircut” for Romney. “Is the haircut enough to hurt Romney in the final vote count? If Virginia stays as close as it is right now, it’s possible.”
Johnson’s best chance of upending either candidate’s bid is in Colorado, where a marijuana-legalization initiative likely to draw voters sympathetic to him will be on the ballot on Nov. 6. In a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Aug. 31 to Sept. 2, Obama led Romney 49 percent to 46 percent in the state. When Johnson was included in the choices, he drew backing from 5 percent, with Obama’s support falling 3 points to 46 percent, and Romney’s down 2 percent.
Obama’s campaign is monitoring Johnson’s candidacy, without sounding alarm bells. They see him as taking equally from both candidates in Colorado and damaging Romney more in most states.
GOP Convention Star Has A ‘Bright Future’
GOP lawmakers say that former Rep. Artur Davis, the Democrat-turned-Republican who ripped President Obama late last month, has a bright future.
The ex-Alabama legislator earned superstar status with his “lessons learned” oration directed at independent voters on day one of the Republican convention in Tampa.
He called the address a “second chance” aimed at “the estimated 6 million of us who know we got it wrong in 2008 and want to fix it,” a reference to voters who supported Obama but may not do so this election.
For Davis, a recent Virginia resident, it was a major step toward a return to politics in a different state and under a different party affiliation.
Virginia Republican officials are pleased that Davis relocated to the Commonwealth and joined them in the fight to elect the GOP presidential ticket in the battleground state.
House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) told The Hill that Davis has a “bright future” in Virginia politics.
Before making such a leap to GOP congressional candidate however, Davis needs to “earn his stripes,” and continue making the case for Mitt Romney, according to a Republican analyst.
“Artur’s very attuned to not just what people think but how people think, given their busy lives. He’s a fantastic political talent. There’s no question about it and he has an opportunity here,” Virginia political operative Ford O’Connell said.
