Eric Cantor Lost Touch With His Constituents Before Primary Loss
On the night Eric Cantor lost to David Brat in the Republican primary in Virginia’s 7th Congressional District, Twitter was “atwitter” with the fact that Cantor had spent more in steakhouses during the campaign than Brat had spent total.
This served to reinforce the narrative that Cantor was in all those steakhouses fat-catting with his campaign staff while Brat’s hungry advisers were pounding the pavement. But what Cantor really was doing in those steakhouses more accurately explains his loss. He was raising funds – and helping others to raise funds – for fellow Republicans throughout the House of Representatives.
He made time for big-dollar private fundraisers to curry favor with other members of Congress, but hedid not make time for constituent service. He walked the halls of power instead of the streets of his suburban Richmond district. His approach to Brat was to caricature him as an extremist one-issue candidate with scurrilous friends and little idea of what he would do if elected when his constituents wanted to hear what he planned to do to better serve their interests.
And after all, he was the House majority leader. He not only could direct legislation to help his district and state, he could lean on appropriators – many of whose campaigns he had helped fund – to get things done. But it turns out having your congressman in a leadership position doesn’t have the appeal it used to.
Tea Party Struggles To Repeat Cantor-style Shock In Tennessee
The shock defeat of Republican House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in a primary in Virginia this week has fueled hopes among Tea Party activists in Tennessee that they can stage a similar upset against Senator Lamar Alexander in August.
But the Cantor loss, while enough to shake Washington and the Republican establishment, may not be a sign of things to come as the Tea Party movement has yet to show this year it can find a consistent winning formula against Republican incumbents.
In Tennessee, Alexander’s challenger - Tea Party state representative Joe Carr – is regarded by many political experts as unqualified for a Senate race and he is trailing by up to 40 points in the polls. He is also up against a lawmaker who is well prepared and a statewide Republican Party that is pushing to thwart the Tea Party.
By contrast, Cantor’s loss has been widely seen as a result of his over-confidence, neglect of his district and voter anger at someone who had a pivotal leadership role in a gridlocked Congress.
“Lamar Alexander has taken the threat of a primary challenger seriously right from the start," said Republican strategist Ford O'Connell. "He knew he had a target on his back."
Carr's local Tea Party backers argue that Cantor's opponent David Brat did not have national backing or serious funding either.
But Republican strategist O'Connell says a Senate race is far more challenging to win than a House race because of the large distances you need to travel and the many more media markets you need compete in.
Carr is also further hampered by the limited resources of the national conservative groups who can only compete in a few races and need to deliver results to help raise more money, O'Connell said.
Cantor To Officially Step Down As House Majority Leader On July 31, Backs McCarthy As Replacement
Rep. Eric Cantor said Wednesday that he will step down as House majority leader at the end of July, after losing a primary election Tuesday, igniting a short, spirited race to fill his post in a vote of the full House GOP next week.
Mr. Cantor lost to tea party-backed challenger David Brat in one of the biggest upsets in recent political history, quashing what had been a steady rise for the 51-year-old and dealing a blow to Virginia Republicans.
Republicans said they expect the House to tilt even more conservative in the wake of Mr. Cantor’s defeat because of the candidates hoping to replace him as majority leader and because of the lessons lawmakers will draw from the Virginia primary.
The contest to replace Mr. Cantor started just hours after the election results were called, with potential candidates reaching out to colleagues to gauge support.
Although Mr. Cantor held an outsized financial advantage, much of his campaign money went to radio and television attack ads, which Mr. Brat accepted as free publicity.
“He ran an air war,” said Republican strategist Ford O’Connell. “It wasn’t about the money he spent, but how.”
“Would anybody argue he spent the money wisely based on the expenditures? No,” Mr. O’Connell said.
Mr. Cantor, in his remarks Tuesday evening and Wednesday, sounded simultaneously conciliatory, optimistic and grateful.
“He realized that he might not be done yet,” Mr. O’Connell said. “He can still run for governor. He could still run for a lot of things.”
Read more from By David Sherfinski and S.A. Miller at The Washington Times
Cantor Spent Nearly As Much At Steakhouses As Brat Did On His Whole Campaign, And More Must Reads
Immigration reform: dead. That’s Jim Manley, a former aide to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, writing in The Wall Street Journal about the topic’s chances in Congress after Cantor’s loss. “The votes have been there for months to pass immigration reform, if House Speaker John Boehner were willing to take legislation to the floor. Now, however, immigration reform is dead for the year – and Republicans killed it.” Manley, a Democrat, is hardly alone in his prediction. “I don’t think you’re going to be hearing anybody else talk about immigration reform anytime soon,” GOP strategist Ford O’Connell told the Hill.
What Cantor's Fall Means To Financial World
House Majority Leader Eric Cantor canceled a scheduled speech he was to give Wednesday morning before the National Association of Manufacturers, as policymakers scramble to sort through what his stunning political loss means for the financial sector.
Cantor was expected to discuss a host of conservative policy initiatives at NAM's annual summit, but now he will be replaced by Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), according to a source familiar with the matter. No explanation was given by the source.
Cantor lost in a primary election Tuesday night to Tea Party challenger David Brat, an economics professor. His last minute speech cancellation signals a challenge establishment Republican policymakers face in rallying congressional support among Tea Partiers and Democrats on a host of financial services.
NAM has been actively engaged on a number of financial issues and Cantor served as a key congressional ally.
From reauthorizing the Export-Import Bank, bipartisan immigration reform, to eliminating taxpayer-backed mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Cantor was able to flex his political muscle in part because many viewed him as a potential successor to House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio).
All of that's out the window now.
Republican strategist Ford O'Connell said that Cantor's Speakership ambitions could have made him a bigger target for the Tea Party.
"The fact that Cantor was one step from the Speaker’s gavel helped put the target more squarely on his back," O'Connell said. "This is upset of the 2014 primary season and an enormous victory for the conservative grassroots. It will certainly serve as a 'come to Jesus' moment for some folks in the GOP with respect to immigration reform."
Still, much of the political world was trying to figure out what Cantor's loss means for policy.
Even Back Home In Virginia, Cantor Feels The Pressure On Immigration From Both Sides
House Majority Leader Eric Cantor took heat in his own backyard Wednesday from both sides of the immigration debate, trying to fend off a primary challenge from his right flank even as he faces scorching pressure from immigrant rights advocates to lead Republicans in passing legislation.
The pressure from both sides makes Mr. Cantor a microcosm of the dilemma Republicans face nationally.
Minutes after primary challenger Dave Brat held a press conference at the Virginia Capitol accusing Mr. Cantor of being “the number one cheerleader in Congress for amnesty,” immigration activists were rallying inside the building, demanding that the No. 2 House Republican bring a legalization bill to the House floor for a vote this year.
Trying to push back, Mr. Cantor’s campaign sent out a mailer this week arguing he’s been the chief obstacle to amnesty.
GOP strategist Ford O’Connell said that taking heat from both sides is the price Mr. Cantor is paying for having good intentions and trying to step out on the issue.
“Passing the Senate’s bill is not an option for Cantor or House Republicans,” he said, predicting the House would become more open to dealing with the issue if Republicans take back control of the U.S. Senate in the fall midterm elections.
Virginia's 'Firehouse' Primary Won By Barbara Comstock
Virginia state delegate Barbara Comstock, a lawyer and veteran GOP operative, won the 10th Congressional District Republican primary, Politico reported.
Comstock will face Democrat John Foust, the Fairfax County Supervisor, in the November elections to fill the seat made vacant by the retirement of Republican Rep. Frank Wolf. Comstock once worked for Wolf on Capitol Hill.
She said she was honored to have won the primary and "follow in the footsteps of my mentor, Congressman Frank Wolf." Comstock called on Republicans to unite behind her candidacy and to defeat Foust, whom she called House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi's "hand-picked candidate," according to Politico.
The race, called a firehouse primary, was held more than a month before Virginia's regularly scheduled primaries, Roll Call reported. Polling was limited to five hours at 10 locations. Of the 13,609 votes cast in the six-person race, Comstock garnered about 54 percent of the ballots, The Washington Post reported.
Comstock represents McLean, Great Falls and parts of Loudoun in the legislature, The Washington Post reported.
The congressional race is expected to be competitive, though she is slightly favored to win, according to Roll Call. Mitt Romney carried the district by only one point in 2012, Politico reported.
Republican strategist Ford O'Connell said last month that a Comstock primary victory would give Republicans an advantage in retaining the district. "She's going to wind up succeeding Frank Wolf" because she "really knows the district, she's not a carpetbagger and she's also a woman, it helps us put a fresh face on the Republican Party."
Dems Attack Gillespie On McDonnell Ties
Democrats are attacking Virginia Senate candidate Ed Gillespie (R) for his ties to former Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell (R), who was indicted Tuesday on 14 charges.
Gillespie, a former head of both the Republican National Committee and the Virginia GOP, served as McDonnell's campaign chairman during his 2009 run and was a senior adviser during his transition into office.
Now that he's challenging Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), Democrats see his connections to the embattled former governor as yet another hit on Gillespie's lobbying record and ties to political influence.
"Ed Gillespie raised millions of dollars in soft money for Bob McDonnell's campaigns for attorney general and governor, and he's the poster child for the sometimes questionable intersection of politics and influence," Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesman Matt Canter tells The Hill. "Gillespie needs to answer for his considerable political and fundraising support for Bob McDonnell."
Democrats are looking to paint Gillespie as a corrupt political insider, and they've already gone on the attack against the former lobbyist for advising Enron, the defunct energy company.
"It plays exactly into the 'fixer' narrative Democrats are pushing — 'Republicans aren't as honest as they sell themselves to be.' They're going to try to say Gillespie is cut from the same cloth as Bob McDonnell," said GOP strategist Ford O'Connell, who has worked on a number of Virginia races.
McDonnell, Wife Charged With Corruption
Former Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) and his wife were charged on Tuesday in federal court with illegally accepting large loans, luxury vacations and expensive gifts from a businessman and prominent political donor.
A federal grand jury indicted the couple on 14 counts related to their decision to receive thousands of gifts and loans from Jonnie R. Williams Sr., an executive at dietary supplement company Star Scientific.
McDonnell and his wife, Maureen, could face prison sentences that amount to decades and fines of more than $1 million.
Prosecutors accuse the McDonnells of receiving items from Williams, who in return got special treatment from the governor’s office to help his company.
McDonnell’s indictment could have ramifications for other Virginia Republicans as well. Senate candidate Ed Gillespie, the GOP front-runner to face Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), previously served as McDonnell’s campaign chairman and as a senior adviser during his transition into office in 2009. Many members of his campaign team also worked for McDonnell in the past.
“It plays exactly into the ‘fixer’ narrative Democrats are pushing — ‘Republicans aren’t as honest as they sell themselves to be.’ They’re going to try to say Gillespie is cut from the same cloth as Bob McDonnell,” said GOP strategist Ford O’Connell, who has worked on a number of Virginia races.
Read more from Rebecca Shabad and Cameron Joseph at The Hill
Gillespie Puts Va. In Play For GOP
In deeply divided Virginia, there’s rare bipartisan agreement — former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie is the strongest candidate the GOP could field against Sen. Mark Warner (D).
Even Democrats admit Republicans accomplished a coup by landing Gillespie, a former top adviser to President George W. Bush and powerhouse lobbyist. But both parties concur the popular Warner will be hard to oust.
Even if the newly minted candidate isn’t favored yet in the commonwealth contest, there seems to be nothing but positives to landing Gillespie for the GOP. His candidacy at least gives Republicans a chance to contest Virginia, which many had written off months ago.
Gillespie’s entrance also forces Democrats into yet another competitive race, further expanding an already dismal map, where they’re defending many vulnerable incumbents in red states to keep Senate control. Republican strategists believe if President Obama’s numbers are bad enough in Virginia on Election Day, Warner could be vulnerable.
Gillespie will also have to win the nomination in a GOP convention, which often boosts conservatives over establishment Republicans. His two opponents appear to be weak, and conservative outside groups showed no interest in taking on Gillespie, but there’s no guarantee he’ll win the nomination. After a series of bruising intraparty squabbles last year that many establishment Republicans believe cost them a chance at the governor’s mansion, they don’t want that to happen again.
“Gillespie gives us the best shot, hands down. But he's really going to have to have a lot of things go in his favor,” said Ford O’Connell, a GOP strategist who has worked on a number of Virginia races.
“For him to win, he's going to have to give Virginians a reason to support him beyond ObamaCare and the president's abysmal record. And he's going to need Warner to make some mistakes on the campaign trail.”
