Republican strategist Ford O'Connell is skeptical that Democrats' victories on Tuesday will translate to wins in 2018. 

Democrats notched wins across the country in the off-year election, including the victory of Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam over Ed Gillespie in the race to be Virginia's next governor.

"I think there's a great misnomer out there, and we're only about twelve hours after the election, and that is Gillespie didn't underperform, Northam overperformed," O'Connell told The Hill. 

O'Connell acknowledged Republicans should be nervous heading into the 2018 midterms, but added, "Democrats would be unwise to misinterpret the results." 

Watch the video and read more from Alexandra Oliveria at The Hill

After coast-to-coast victories Tuesday and a romp in a key swing state, Democrats smell blood in the water for a 2018 election that could deal a body blow to President Donald Trump and the GOP.

Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam’s (D) blowout victory in Virginia’s gubernatorial race — the biggest election since Trump’s victory one year ago today — was the capstone of an impressive night that showed Democrats’ burning hot hatred of Trump can translate into sweeping electoral victories across the country. 

His sweeping win was coupled with a Democratic sweep of statewide offices and huge gains by Democrats in the statehouse no one thought possible that have put the House of Delegates teetering on the edge of their control. Democrats have picked up at least 15 seats in the chamber, double the number most of them thought likely, and turned a two-to-one GOP edge in the chamber into a virtual tie. Control of the chamber hangs in the balance, with recounts still pending in some races.

GOP strategist Ford O’Connell said he wasn’t surprised Northam won, but the lopsided numbers worried him.

“What surprised me was the margin — Gillespie got crushed in suburbs and with millennials,” he said. “Democrats are fired up and Republicans are facing some tough headwinds and how they try to hold on to House will vary from district to district.”

Read more from Cameron Joseph at TPM

Voters head to the polls on Tuesday in Virginia to pick the state’s next governor in a close race between Democratic candidate Ralph Northam and Republican Ed Gillespie.

Virginia should be favorable territory for Democrats. The current governor, Terry McAuliffe, is a Democrat. Hillary Clinton won the state in the last presidential election. And only 41 percent of likely voters approve of President Trump in the state, according to a Monmouth University poll published on Monday. Yet the race has become a nail-biter. Northam only has a narrow lead in polling averagesand Gillespie has gained ground over the past month.  

If Democrats lose, it will chip away at the party’s already diminished grip on state politics and exacerbate in-fighting between progressives and moderates over the best way to win races. It could also spell trouble for the party’s chances of success in the 2018 midterm elections.

Northam and Gillespie are both establishment figures who have tried, somewhat awkwardly, to find their way in a political environment upended by the 2016 election.

The lesson Republicans take from the race may be the same whether Gillespie wins or loses, at least if the loss is by only a narrow margin.

“There’s no one-size-fits plan for any candidate, but there is what you’ll call a general outline for how you go after this thing if the headwinds are against you, and that is to fire up conservative base voters, and to do that by turning to cultural issues,” said Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist who has worked on campaigns in Virginia. “Northam has a lot of the advantages, but Gillespie seems to have the momentum.”

Read more from Clare Foran at The Atlantic

The Republican Obamacare replacement bill is proving to be absolute poison on the campaign trail, where party candidates range from noncommittal to downright hostile.

“I am against it,” said Corey Stewart, who is battling for the Republican nomination in the Virginia governor’s race. “It doesn’t go far enough. Look, a bunch of politicians in Washington are never going to be able to create an efficient one-size-fits-all health care system.”

The plan also has been met with disdain in Georgia, where 11 Republicans are running for the seat left vacant by President Trump’s health and human services secretary. Several of the candidates — including Amy Kremer and Bob Gray — have panned the plan as “Obamacare-lite” and said conservatives instead should deliver on the full repeal they promised on the campaign trail.

For Republican leaders already having a tough time selling their bill in Washington, the last thing they need is a steady dose of negative reaction from candidates running in elections back home.

“The Republicans on the Hill are trying to put out the fire, and these guys are throwing accelerant on the fire,” said Ford O’Connell, a party strategist.

“You are shooting yourself and the long-term prospects for President Trump in the foot when you do this,” he said, arguing that Republicans need to show they can govern. “These guys have to grow a backbone, hold the line and see the big picture because the more successful Trump is, the more successful they will be.”

Read more from Seth McLaughlin at The Washington Times

Rep. Bar­bara Com­stock’s North­ern Vir­gin­ia-based seat is home to a rare breed: swing voters in a swing dis­trict in a swing state.

And by Novem­ber, they’ll be among the most tar­geted in the pres­id­en­tial race.

The di­vided polit­ics of the 10th Dis­trict make it a true bell­weth­er battle­ground, in­vit­ing out­size at­ten­tion and re­sources from both parties. As the first-term Re­pub­lic­an faces a chal­lenge from Demo­crat Lu­Ann Ben­nett, those top-of-the-tick­et dy­nam­ics could have sub­stan­tial bear­ing on her reelec­tion.

“Com­stock is not just bat­tling Ben­nett here,” said Ford O’Con­nell, a GOP strategist who’s been act­ive in Vir­gin­ia polit­ics. “Com­stock is bat­tling the Demo­crat­ic plan to win the state of Vir­gin­ia.”

Com­stock’s dis­trict in­cludes Loudoun and Prince Wil­li­am counties, two jur­is­dic­tions whose elec­tion res­ults tend to mir­ror the out­come of statewide races. Em­boldened by re­cent demo­graph­ic trends that have turned North­ern Vir­gin­ia more Demo­crat­ic, the party sees this pres­id­en­tial cycle as its best shot to un­seat the first-term Com­stock.

The fresh­man Re­pub­lic­an won the open seat in 2014 by a wide mar­gin, even as Demo­crats pre­dicted a com­pet­it­ive race at the out­set. This cycle, the party ex­pects to be buoyed by heav­ier turnout in the area, known for its in­de­pend­ent vot­ing streak and pricey D.C. me­dia mar­ket.

Re­pub­lic­ans, O’Con­nell said, “have a large prob­lem in North­ern Vir­gin­ia. But if they have any­thing to hang their hat on, it’s Com­stock.”

Read more from Kimberly Railey at National Journal

Virginia has started to look an awful lot like Illinois since President Obama entered the White House, but Republicans believe they can — and must — win the state in the 2016 presidential election.

The Old Dominion has just decided to pick its Republican presidential candidate via a primary rather than a convention. Virginia's nominating contest will function as part of the "SEC primary," within Super Tuesday's 12 state nominating contests on March 1. "SEC" is a reference to the collegiate Southeastern Conference's prominence in NCAA football. But no school in Virginia participates in the SEC, and the state's shifting demographics have made competition in Virginia a whole different ballgame.

Ford O'Connell, a veteran of Sen. John McCain's 2008 presidential campaign and Republican strategist who has been active in Virginia electoral politics, said GOP presidential hopefuls need to follow Gillespie's example as the candidate who showed how Republicans could take back Virginia. While Republicans previously took the state for granted in presidential elections, O'Connell said, they will make a much larger push for Virginia in 2016. 

Read more from Ryan Lovelace at The Washington Examiner

Mark R. Warner is going door to door on Halloween with a nifty disguise. The freshman Democratic senator is wearing the mask of a moderate. It’s a trick to get his liberal voting record past Virginians amid the wave of anti-Democratic sentiment sweeping the nation.

Mr. Warner is leading Ed Gillespie, his Republican challenger, but not so comfortably as he once did. He remains below the 50 percent mark in the polls, and that’s a place no incumbent wants to be only four or five days out. Voters think they already know him. He’s not likely to pick up more votes before Tuesday. Mr. Gillespie is only now getting widely known, and can expect to pick up support as Virginia sees him as the most authentic man in the race.

New numbers compiled by CQ Weekly tear away Mr. Warner’s moderate mask to reveal someone with a perfect 117-for-117 record of backing President Obama’s liberal agenda in the Senate. Whenever the White House says jump, Mr. Warner dutifully asks, “How high?”

Mr. Warner boasts of reaching across the aisle to co-sponsor bills. It’s part of the Halloween disguise. “He likes to tout his bipartisan work,” says Republican strategist Ford O’Connell, “but he’s really been a pack mule for Obama and the Democrats.”

Read more from The Washington Times

Sen. Mark R. Warner touts his bipartisan approach as the key reason he deserves a second term, and his Senate record confirms he regularly works with members across the aisle on his legislative priorities.

But when it comes time to vote, the record also shows Mr. Warner has been a reliable foot soldier for President Obama’s agenda.

The Virginia Democrat earned a perfect 117 for 117 voting record on the Senate floor to back Mr. Obama when the president took stances on legislation this year, according to reports.

That is a contrast with Mr. Warner’s pitch to voters, which centers on the bills he writes and sponsors — an area in which he has worked more with Republicans than all but six of his fellow Senate Democrats.

Mr. Warner began building his bipartisan record with his 2001 election as governor, after which he ended up in the middle of a bruising fight over taxes and spending.

“He’s gotten away with being liked by both sides in Richmond and he likes to tout his bipartisan work, but he’s really been a pack mule for Obama and the Democrats,” Republican Party strategist Ford O’Connell said.

Read more from David Sherifnski at The Washington Times

Republicans have closed gaps in Senate races across the country, but Virginia — a swing state where the GOP should be more competitive — has proved to be the exception, with longtime party operative Ed Gillespie failing to make headway against freshman Sen. Mark R. Warner.

Republican operatives insist they have the right candidate and that the margin will close in the coming months in an environment favorable for the GOP, but outside groups have shown scant interest in backing Mr. Gillespie, who is being outspent, is still largely unknown by voters and has yet to really dent the popular Mr. Warner.

“I’m the tortoise. Three yards and a cloud of dust,” Mr. Gillespie said, chuckling. “I know where this race is in my gut. I know how vulnerable Senator Warner has become. And his record — I know that my policies resonate with the voters, and I just feel like the next 10 weeks or so are going to be very, very good.”

Election analysts agree there should be an opportunity for a Republican to make the race competitive.

“There is no way the way President Obama’s numbers are it’s a 20-point race, but the Warner campaign is doing a good job making sure nobody is paying attention to this race,” GOP strategist Ford O’Connell said.

Read more from David Sherfinski at The Washington Times

By week’s end, a colorful cornucopia of pundits, strategists and consummate insiders were all still struggling to get their heads around it: how did an invincible commander of the House Republican elite get smacked down by a little-known college economics professor with virtually little money in the bank?