House Majority Leader Eric Cantor canceled a scheduled speech he was to give Wednesday morning before the National Association of Manufacturers, as policymakers scramble to sort through what his stunning political loss means for the financial sector.

Cantor was expected to discuss a host of conservative policy initiatives at NAM's annual summit, but now he will be replaced by Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), according to a source familiar with the matter. No explanation was given by the source.

Cantor lost in a primary election Tuesday night to Tea Party challenger David Brat, an economics professor. His last minute speech cancellation signals a challenge establishment Republican policymakers face in rallying congressional support among Tea Partiers and Democrats on a host of financial services.

NAM has been actively engaged on a number of financial issues and Cantor served as a key congressional ally.

From reauthorizing the Export-Import Bank, bipartisan immigration reform, to eliminating taxpayer-backed mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Cantor was able to flex his political muscle in part because many viewed him as a potential successor to House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio).

All of that's out the window now.

Republican strategist Ford O'Connell said that Cantor's Speakership ambitions could have made him a bigger target for the Tea Party.

"The fact that Cantor was one step from the Speaker’s gavel helped put the target more squarely on his back," O'Connell said. "This is upset of the 2014 primary season and an enormous victory for the conservative grassroots. It will certainly serve as a 'come to Jesus' moment for some folks in the GOP with respect to immigration reform."

Still, much of the political world was trying to figure out what Cantor's loss means for policy.

Read more from By Kevin Cirilli at The Hill

Mississippi appears headed for a runoff in its donnybrook of a GOP Senate primary. That’s bad news for the Republican establishment, good news for the tea party – and cause for Democratic hope in November, despite the state’s deep-red hue.

Tea party-backed state Sen. Chris McDaniel leads six-term Sen. Thad Cochran by just over 2,000 votes, with 99.5 percent of precincts reporting as of Wednesday morning. More important, with a third candidate taking a sliver of the vote, neither of the top two candidates won a majority. If that result holds, Mr. McDaniel and Senator Cochran will go head-to-head in a runoff June 24.

“In a runoff it is hard to see how McDaniel is not a slight favorite, as his supporters are driven by something Cochran’s aren’t – excitement,” says Republican strategist Ford O’Connell. “Runoffs usually entail a much lower turnout. Therefore the candidate whose core supporters have more intensity tend to win.”

And the tea party is all about intensity. In addition, Cochran has appeared tired, especially compared with the youthful McDaniel. Cochran declined to debate McDaniel.

If McDaniel wins the runoff, Democrats will have a rare – if slight – chance of winning a Republican-held seat in a cycle that generally favors the GOP. 

Democrats recruited former Rep. Travis Childers, a Blue Dog Democrat who held a solidly Republican House seat from 2008 to 2010, precisely in the hopes that McDaniel would beat Cochran.

Democrats are desperately trying to keep control of the Senate and have far more vulnerable seats than do the Republicans.

Read more from Linda Feldmann at The Christian Science Monitor

The intense struggle for control of the Republican Party came to a dramatic head in Mississippi on Tuesday when Sen. Thad Cochran faced a stiff challenge from the tea party-backed Chris McDaniel in a nasty and expensive primary contest that was too close to call with a majority of the ballots counted.

With more than 95 percent of the vote tallied, McDaniel was ahead by less than one percentage point and the possibility of runoff in three weeks looked increasingly real.

Cochran went into the contest at risk of becoming the first U.S. senator to be toppled this year in an ongoing struggle between the GOP establishment and the conservative insurgency. With nearly all precincts reporting, McDaniel had 49.5 percent of the vote to Cochran’s 49 percent. If neither campaign can claim 50 percent of the vote, it would mean a second faceoff, on June 24. Late Tuesday, two counties had still not reported any results, according to the Associated Press.

The more than $12 million campaign tested the might of two starkly different Republicans split along generational and ideological lines. It came as tea party challengers elsewhere fizzled against more moderate GOP senators. The result, some Republicans said, was a coalition of national tea party groups desperate for a victory.

“They really want a McDaniel win because they want a head on the mantel,” party strategist Ford O’Connell said. Tea party groups “need to be able to raise money” to stay afloat, he added, “and to raise money, you have to show results.”

Read more from Sean Sullivan at The Washington Post

Republicans on Tuesday will cast votes in the two states where they are most vulnerable heading into November’s elections — Georgia and Kentucky — where primaries could leave the GOP champions bruised as they prepare to face strong female Democrats.

“If the Democrats win in either Kentucky or Georgia, it will be next to impossible for Republicans to take the Senate in 2014,” said Ford O'Connell, a Republican Party strategist. “That is the bottom line.”

Arkansas, Idaho, Oregon and Pennsylvania also have primaries Tuesday that will set the lineups for a series of general election showdowns.

But it’s the two Republican-held Senate seats that are getting the most attention because of the stakes involved and the bitter turn the primaries have taken in the five-way Georgia contest, and the Kentucky battle, which pits top Senate Republican Mitch McConnell against tea party-backed Matt Bevin.

While the Kentucky primary is shaping up as formality, the Republican contest in Georgia is far less certain.

If no one wins 50 percent of the vote Tuesday, it will go to a two-candidate runoff in July.

As it stands, the battle for a spot in a runoff race has boiled down to a three-person contest of Rep. Jack Kingston, deep-pocketed businessman David Perdue and former Secretary of State Karen Handel.

That could be a bad omen for Democrats, as polls show likely Democratic opponent Michelle Nunn was performing better against Reps. Phil Gingrey or Paul C. Broun, who were seen as the most conservative candidates in the race.

But Mrs. Kingston, Mr. Perdue and Mrs. Handel have engaged in an increasingly vicious campaign, which is likely to continue for another 90 days until the July 22 runoff.

“The question will be: Will the next nine weeks be a civil period or one of scorched earth?” Mr. O'Connell said. “If it is scorched earth, then too many open wounds on the eventually GOP victory could give Nunn an opening.”

Read more from Seth McLaughlin at The Washington Times

Republican strategist Ford O'Connell says that GOP success is really about "electable candidates," not whether he or she is from the tea party or establishment wing of the party. 

"I just don't focus on tea party versus establishment. I focus on the candidate and the environment they're running in," O'Connell told J.D. Hayworth and John Bachman on "America's Forum" on Newsmax TV.

O'Connell argues that the reason why tea party-backed Ben Sasse won the Republican primary in Nebraska Tuesday night is because he's a great candidate. 

"I think the Republican Party might have gotten itself a gem [in Sasse]. A serious conservative who wants to be a problem solver," the Republican strategist said, adding that "they might have actually landed themselves a great future senator."

On the flip side, the reason why tea party candidate Matt Bevin, who is challenging Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in the Kentucky Republican primary, is struggling is "because basically, he was a flop." 

O'Connell contends that the "political trade winds merit" that the GOP unite together once the primary season is over.

"There is so much in the Republicans' favor and really the issues that all of the candidates are touting are really ones of unity with respect to growth, jobs, Obamacare, energy of security, etc.," he said.

Read more from Courtney Coren at Newsmax.com

The Republican establishment is breathing a collective sigh of relief after Tuesday’s victory by Thom Tillis – speaker of the House in North Carolina – in the state’s GOP primary for US Senate.

Speaker Tillis won 46 percent of the vote, beating seven other competitors, including two insurgent candidates with high-profile support. By topping 40 percent, Tillis avoids a divisive, costly runoff in July. He can now focus immediately on defeating freshman Sen. Kay Hagan (D), one of the Democrats’ most vulnerable senators in the November elections.

“Tillis is definitely the most electable among the field,” says Republican strategist Ford O’Connell. “But it’s not time to pop the champagne. Kentucky and Georgia are next.”

In the Kentucky primary, on May 20, Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell (R) looks set to defeat his tea party challenger, businessman Matt Bevin. But in Georgia, also on May 20, the GOP primary for the seat held by retiring Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) features a crowded field with no clear frontrunner – and appears headed for a July runoff. Some of the candidates are far-right conservatives with a history of making provocative statements. The Democrats have a strong likely nominee in nonprofit CEO Michelle Nunn.

Republicans need a net gain of six seats to take over the Senate, and can ill-afford to lose any seats they currently hold. The GOP establishment is also loathe to see the party squander pickup opportunities by nominating undisciplined or hard-line candidates who make comments that turn off general election voters.

Read more from Linda Feldmann at The Christian Science Monitor 

The temperature is warming, the flowers are in bloom, the trees are filling out, and it’s an even-numbered year: ahh, it must be primary season, with the sweet smell of headstrong disruption emanating from Republican races across the land. Which “establishment favorites” will be ousted this year for once daring to draw a perceived RINO breath? Which tragicomic, rape-ain’t-so-bad clownheads will replace them and go on to lose seats that they have no business losing? It’s springtime for “Republican civil war” narrative-crafters.

If only there were more material to work with. So far, GOP Primary Season 2014 has been heavily overrated as a stage for intraparty drama.

Let’s consider the main event tonight: North Carolina’s Senate Republican primary, the winner of which will face vulnerable Democratic incumbent Sen. Kay Hagan in November.This is the one to watch, we’ve been told. And that’s because it sets up perfectly for political media typecasting. There’s state speaker Thom Tillis, the “establishment” favorite, getting endorsements from the Mitt Romneys and Karl Roves of the world, and having lots of money. Then we have Dr. Greg Brannon, the non-career politician “Tea Party” crusader, endorsed by the likes of Sen. Rand Paul and FreedomWorks and Gadsden flag-wavers everywhere; the guy who can’t go four seconds without quoting some clause of the Constitution that instantly provides the answer to all of our most complex socioeconomic problems. And then there’s Mark Harris, the Mike Huckabee-backed Bible dude.

The establishment guy, the Tea Party guy, the social conservative guy. Got it?

So who’s going to win? Is it a toss-up or something — is that why we’re paying attention? Not really. We’re paying attention to see if there’s going to be… a runoff. A runoff that Tillis, in all likelihood, would win.

But then we get to the sub-sub(?)-narrative, the one that Republican party officials are more worried about: that if Tillis can’t lock up 40% in today’s kickoff special, it will set a cynical, “here they go again” tone within the media for the whole season. From The Hill:

“It’s extremely important. If Tillis avoids a runoff the headline is ‘GOP dodges a bullet’ and if he doesn’t, it’s ‘Hagan dodges a bullet,’” said Republican strategist Ford O’Connell.

O’Connell said the race could help set the tone for the rest of the primary season, for better or worse.

“It’s important for Tillis to get the party beyond this hump psychologically as well. It could make a lot of other things go easier. The last thing the party wants is the ‘here they go again’ narrative,” he said.

Read more Jim Newell at Salon.com

It is not shaping up as a great year for the conservative Tea Party movement as it seeks to revamp the Republican Party by challenging "establishment" Republicans in the U.S. Senate.

The Tea Party's assault on Senator John Cornyn fell short in the Texas primaries last month, and recent polls indicate that the movement's candidates are unlikely to oust incumbents in Kentucky, Tennessee and Kansas.

But the Tea Party's outlook is considerably better in Mississippi. The stars appear to have aligned for Chris McDaniel, a state senator who is waging a primary battle against Thad Cochran, who is seeking his seventh six-year term in the Senate.

Polls show a close race two months before the June 3 Republican primary, and an army of Tea Party activists are canvassing Mississippi voters for McDaniel. Money has flooded in, with national Tea Party-affiliated groups such as Club for Growth spending close to $1 million to support him.

For the Tea Party, the stakes in McDaniel's race are huge. If it can unseat a popular incumbent like Cochran, it can claim relevance within the Republican Party even though setbacks elsewhere indicate the movement that burst into American politics in 2010 is losing some momentum amid a backlash from the more moderate Republican establishment.

Republican strategist Ford O'Connell says McDaniel's primary challenge will have ramifications for the Tea Party well beyond Mississippi, especially when it comes to fundraising.

"These conservative groups need Thad Cochran's head on their mantle if they want to remain credible with donors," O'Connell said. "And the Tea Party movement badly needs a shot in the arm to fire them up for the election."

Read more from Nick Carey at Reuters

At a recent conference marking the Tea Party’s fifth anniversary, Republican Representative Michele Bachmann of Minnesota paid tribute to the grassroots activists who have been a fixture on the U.S. political scene since 2009.

“Because what you did for America is stellar, it was life-changing to the lifeblood of this nation," she said.

The Tea Party’s greatest victory came in the 2010 midterm congressional elections when their supporters helped Republicans take back control of the House of Representatives.

The Tea Party is not a political party but a wide array of grass roots groups, some aided by powerful fundraising organizations.  But its supporters now dream of one of their own in the White House someday, and at the top of the list for many is Republican Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, who was elected with Tea Party help in 2012.

But the Tea Party took a political hit last October in the aftermath of the federal government shutdown.  The public blamed Republicans more than Democrats for the stalemate, and many Republican leaders criticized Tea Party groups for a "no compromise" attitude that provoked the shutdown.

2014 looms as a pivotal year for the Tea Party.  Supporters are critical to a strong Republican showing in this November's Congressional election, when the party hopes to hold its majority in the House and gain enough seats to take control of the Senate as well.

Analysts say far-right Republican Senate candidates nominated with Tea Party support wound up hurting Republican hopes for a Senate takeover in both 2010 and 2012.

Republican strategist Ford O’Connell says party leaders are hoping to avoid that problem this year.

“And the biggest hurdle in front of the Tea Party right now is that they are seen as extremist, and that is exactly how Democrats can continue to defeat Tea Party candidates, because the public perception of the Tea Party is generally seen as a negative thing by the American people,” he said. 

Read more from Jim Malone at Voice of America

In one of the first skirmishes of 2014 between opposing wings of the Republican Party, conservatives and moderates vie on Tuesday for an early lead in the fight to nominate a candidate to run for the U.S. Senate seat of retiring Iowa Democrat Tom Harkin.

Republicans need to win six seats to gain a majority in the U.S. Senate in congressional elections in November. If they retain control of the House of Representatives, they would gain considerable leverage in dealing with Democratic President Barack Obama.

But the party's path to victory is complicated by the conflict between the moderate "establishment" wing and the conservative Tea Party movement, with a number of conservative challengers running in primaries against moderate incumbent senators. Both sides favor lower taxes, spending cuts and smaller government, but while moderates are willing to compromise in many cases it is anathema for Tea Party-backed politicians to do so.

Rural Iowa's convoluted process of caucuses starts on Tuesday, with political analysts viewing them as an early test of the strength of the conservative movement, well ahead of the primary election battles that are set to take place in more than half a dozen states.

Iowa's process of nomination by caucus is unusual, but the threat of bruising primary contests undermining mainstream Republican candidates is a national issue.

"If the conservative base pulls too far to the right in a couple of states, it could cost the party," said Republican strategist Ford O'Connell.

"Iowa should definitely be in play, and Republicans could win if they choose someone electable and do it wisely," O'Connell said. "The problem is that rock-ribbed conservatives tend to do very well in primaries in Iowa, but they do not fare as well in general elections."

The most recent government figures show nearly 720,000 registered voters in Iowa are independents, with about 616,000 Republicans and 615,000 Democrats.

Republican strategist O'Connell said selecting a conservative Senate candidate could push independents toward the Democratic candidate.

That is also a risk in Georgia, where a number of candidates for retiring U.S. Senator Saxby Chambliss' seat are trying to outdo each other as conservatives and may move to far to the right, O'Connell said.

Read more from Nick Carey at Reuters