Trump's Appeal Divides Tea Party Loyalties In Crucial States
Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump has effectively split the conservative Tea Party movement, as his fiery campaign draws in followers of the group who had been expected to line up behind Ted Cruz, a more consistent champion of small government.
As the Republican race moves to the crucial battlegrounds of Ohio and Florida among three other states on Tuesday, Tea Party support promises to help Trump's campaign offset its relative lack of on-the-ground organization compared to Texas Senator Cruz, his closest rival nationally.
Having loyal Tea Party supporters could also help him fend off moves to block his nomination at the Republican National Convention in July if he falls short of the threshold of 1,237 delegates that would guarantee him the party's candidacy.
A Feb. 29 CNN poll had 56 percent of Tea Partiers favoring Trump compared to 16 percent for Cruz. A March 9 Quinnipiac University poll had Trump leading Cruz 48 percent to 40 percent among Tea Party voters in Florida, while Cruz led Trump with 38 percent to Trump's 33 percent in Ohio.
"Trump has tapped into Tea Party emotions, gaining the support of many of the most hacked off and motivated voters out there," said Republican strategist Ford O'Connell. "It was a brilliant move."
Ted Cruz Launches 2016 Bid, Hoping To Revive Religious Right
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz made a bold play for grassroots and social conservatives on Monday by launching his presidential campaign at Liberty University, the nation’s largest evangelical school.
The fiery address leaves no doubt his campaign will charge hard to the right in a bid to lock down the conservative core of the GOP base, with a special emphasis on social and religious conservatives.
He is the first major candidate to formally launch his presidential campaign, putting pressure on other conservative rivals to possibly move up their time tables.
In announcing first, a surprise move that only leaked this weekend, Cruz is trying to jumpstart his campaign. He’s been stuck in single digits in many early state polls behind others he’d be battling for the conservative mantle, including former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and retired surgeon Ben Carson.
“He has a very narrow window to win this nomination. To do it, he has to become the preeminent candidate for grassroots conservatives and social conservatives. That means he has elbow Huckabee, Carson and Santorum out of the way,” said Ford O’Connell, a GOP strategist who advised McCain in 2008.
Ted Cruz Declares Candidacy, Vows To ‘Reignite The Promise Of America’
Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas announced Monday that he is running for president, making him the first official candidate in the 2016 race for the White House.
“I believe God isn’t done with America yet,” Mr. Cruz said during a speech at Liberty University, sending a strong signal that he plans to compete for the evangelical Christians that traditionally play a big role in the GOP nomination race.
“I believe in you. I believe in the power of millions of courageous conservatives rising up to reignite the promise in America,” he said. “And that is why today I am announcing that I am running for president of the United States.”
The big question for Mr. Cruz is whether he can build a big enough coalition to claim the mantle of the conservative alternative to the establishment candidate in a Republican race that will likely also feature former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky.
Mr. Cruz is running near the middle of the pack in early national polls, behind Mr. Bush, Mr. Walker and Mr. Paul, who is planning to enter the race early next month.
Ford O’Connell, a GOP strategist, said Mr. Cruz has a “narrow” path to the nomination.
“For Cruz to have a legitimate shot at the nomination, he has to become the preeminent candidate for both grassroots conservatives and social conservatives, which means he has to elbow out the darlings of social conservatives — Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum and Ben Carson,” Mr. O’Connell said.
Race For 2016 Begins In Earnest
After simmering throughout the 2014 primaries and general election, the feud between tea party and establishment Republicans is set to boil over in the next two years as both factions turn up the heat in the battle to be kingmakers for the GOP presidential nominee.
The fight among the potential candidates themselves is already well underway, with conservative senators positioning themselves as the insurgents and several current and former governors as the standard-bearers for the establishment — including potentially another member of the Bush family, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.
Voters have been spared much of the internal GOP feuding, as both sides have tried to paper over differences in recent months, joining together in the shared goal of flipping control of the Senate and holding onto key governorships.
“But once the postscript on the 2014 elections is written, it will start to simmer again,” said Ford O’Connell, a GOP strategist. “And by the time we reach the 2016 Republican presidential primaries, I expect it to be a driving force in who Republicans nominate as the party’s eventual standard-bearer.”
Newsmax Panel: GOP Needs To Unite
Conservative commentators Ford O'Connell and Scottie Nell Hughes tell Newsmax TV that Republicans need to stop all the infighting and unite if the GOP wants a chance of returning to power.
Watch the video and read more from Melissa Clyne at Newsmax.com
Pat Roberts Rallies Over Tea Party Challenger In Kansas GOP Senate Primary
Sen. Pat Roberts beat back tea party challenger Milton Wolf in Tuesday’s Kansas Senate primary — keeping intact the perfect record of sitting Republican senators and clearing the way for the veteran lawmaker to secure a fourth term in the November election.
The contest was seen as the second-to-last chance for the insurgent wing of the GOP to send a sitting senator packing in the 2014 primary season, with only Sen. Lamar Alexander of Tennessee left to face a serious challenge in this off-year election cycle.
The Associated Press called the race for Mr. Roberts roughly three hours after the polls closed.
Ford O’Connell, a Republican Party strategist, said the losses could spark some soul-searching among the GOP’s anti-establishment forces.
“As a career politician and a permanent fixture on Capitol Hill since the late 1960s who doesn’t even own a home in the state he represents, Pat Roberts embodies all that conservatives loathe, and by all means Roberts should have been ‘dust in the wind’ in this era of hyper-Beltway conservative discontent, yet he survived,” Mr. O’Connell said.
“Tea party groups have lost the element of surprise when trying to mow down an incumbent in high-profile races, and will likely need to go back to the drawing board and improve their tactics as well as their candidate selection,” he said.
The Tea Party's Alamo?
Establishment Republicans believe a successful night of primaries on Tuesday — in particular Sen. Thad Cochran’s (R-Miss.) surprising defeat of challenger state Sen. Chris McDaniel (R) in a runoff — effectively neutered the Tea Party for the foreseeable future.
Main Street spent $400,000 for Cochran during the primary fight, with $100,000 of that coming as a ground operation investment during the runoff period.
The Chamber of Commerce, Main Street, the National Republican Senatorial Committee and a super PAC with ties to former Miss. Gov. Haley Barbour (R) all pitched in on the race, but were ultimately outspent.
Groups backing McDaniel outspent groups backing Cochran by more than $3 million, and Cochran had far fewer establishment-minded groups coming to his rescue than conservative groups that supported McDaniel.
Still, Cochran prevailed, even while running a decidedly unconservative runoff campaign that emphasized the federal money he’s brought back to the state as an appropriator and pitching for African American Democratic votes.
As GOP strategist Ford O’Connell, who previously advised Barbour’s campaign, put it, the Mississippi runoff results should make conservatives rethink their whole strategy.
“Sen. Thad Cochran was essentially left for dead, and yet the Tea Party could not get the scalp on the mantle it so desperately needed. So, it’s back to the drawing board for grassroots conservatives,” he said.
Cochran Wins Mississippi Primary Runoff
Sen. Thad Cochran turned back a hard challenge from tea-party-backed state Sen. Chris McDaniel in the Mississippi Senate runoff race Tuesday, handing the party establishment arguably its biggest win of the 2014 primary season and boosting Republican hopes of flipping control of the Senate in the November election.
Mr. Cochran’s win was viewed as a huge blow to the national tea party groups and their allies, who invested heavily in the race in hopes of scoring their first big win of the primary season over a Senate Republican incumbent.
The Associated Press called the race for Mr. Cochran more than three hours after the polls closed. With 99 percent of precincts reporting, Mr. Cochran held a 50.8 percent to 49.2 percent edge over Mr. McDaniel.
“It’s a group effort, it’s not a solo and so we all have a right to be proud of our state tonight,” Mr. Cochran told supporters in a brief appearance late Tuesday night.
Mr. McDaniel, meanwhile, refused to concede. He blamed the loss on “liberal Democrats” and slammed Mr. Cochran and his allies for “once again compromising,” “reaching across the aisle” and “abandoning the conservative movement.”
“The conservative tea party folks wanted a scalp on their mantle,” said Ford O’Connell, a GOP strategist. “And in terms of marquee races, the Mississippi and Oklahoma U.S. Senate races were their last best opportunities this cycle. The narrative going forward will be ‘the establishment strikes back,’ but the duel between the Hatfields and McCoys of the Republican Party is far from settled.”
Read more from Seth McLaughlin at The Washington Times
More Than Immigration Reform Defeated Cantor
By week’s end, a colorful cornucopia of pundits, strategists and consummate insiders were all still struggling to get their heads around it: how did an invincible commander of the House Republican elite get smacked down by a little-known college economics professor with virtually little money in the bank?
Beyond news of meltdown in Iraq, that pretty much summed up the conversation in Washington, a debate of many twists and turns that’s already bleeding into the new week. Even as tea party insurgent David Brat became the new show stopper hitting the political stage, all the focus was on House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va., and what this meant for the future of the Republican Party.
No one on the Republican side of things saw this coming, although close observers like Republican strategist and CivicForumPAC founder Ford O’Connell describe signs on the ground in the Richmond suburb that alluded to voter issues with Cantor. “It wasn’t just the tea party,” said O’Connell. “And, frankly, I hate that term. It’s a lazy analysis. And, it wasn’t just immigration reform.” O’Connell describes a situation in which Cantor’s team was more than likely asleep at the campaign wheel and voters largely disenchanted with business as usual in Washington. In his book “Hail Mary: The 10-Step Playbook for Republican Recovery,” O’Connell puts forth a number of strategies for nervous establishment Republicans seeking to retake their party.
O’Connell, and many other observers, won’t settle for the popular narrative that perceived flip-flopping on immigration reform legislation finally nailed Cantor’s political coffin. Some argue that there’s a larger problem of a jaded American electorate – tea party or not – that’s sour on everything unfolding in Washington.
Read more from Charles D. Ellison at The Philadelphia Tribune
2016 Rivals Say They Can Ride The Wave
Tea Party-backed senators eyeing White House bids in 2016 are encouraged by the victory of an underfunded challenger to House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (Va.), a grandee of the GOP establishment.
Their glee comes as mainstream Republicans are wringing their hands about what the historic upset means for the future of their party, fretting that it could signal a larger Tea Party uprising.
Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) argued David Brat’s 11-point win showed that conservative principles can triumph over fundraising might and special-interest backing.
“Do I think that’s going to cause some fear among those vying for the Republican nomination in 2016? Absolutely,” said Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist who worked on Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) 2008 presidential campaign.
