GOP Eager To Exploit Dem Court-Packing Fight
Republicans are seizing on the Democratic fight over expanding the Supreme Court as they look for leverage in the 2020 White House fight.
The intra-party debate is seen by Republicans as a political gift that could pay dividends after several presidential candidates signaled they are open to adding justices to the bench or imposing term limits.
GOP strategists and conservative activists say the progressive push to expand the Supreme Court fits nicely into the broader Republican narrative about Democrats swinging too far to the left. And it’s an issue they view as a political boon.
Long considered a fringe idea, reforming the nation’s highest court has vaulted into the spotlight with the backing of progressive outside groups and high-profile leaders like former Attorney General Eric Holder, who served during the Obama administration.
GOP lawmakers are quickly moving to weaponize the fight by introducing legislation that would force Democrats to go on the record on a constitutional amendment to keep the number of Supreme Court justices at nine.
An amendment is likely to go nowhere in the Democrat-controlled House. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) hasn't weighed in on the current Supreme Court fight, or the prospect that he would bring legislation on the issue up for a vote. He previously dismissed talk of expanding the courts as Democrats “scrounging through the ash-heap of American history” for their ideas.
“McConnell is very savvy about these sorts of things and he knows … that he wants to have all this stuff documented before Democrats have a nominee,” said Ford O'Connell, a GOP strategist.
O'Connell added that forcing Democratic senators to vote on a constitutional amendment, even though it has little chance of being enacted, would allow Republicans to help define the Democratic Party before they are able to unite behind a 2020 strategy.
“A lot of this stuff that is being thrown around the Democratic primary, the Republicans want to capture now regardless of who the nominee is because the nominee will then try to pivot, duck, dodge and dive this stuff,” he said. “If Trump and the Republicans can define the Democrats before the Democrats have a nominee that’s how they’re going to win this race.”
Republicans In Wait-And-See Mode After Judge Strikes A Blow To Obamacare
The comments from GOP leadership come, however, as some rank-and-file GOP lawmakers say that the ruling puts pressure on Congress to come up with a plan if the ruling striking down the law is ultimately upheld.
The landmark health care law does remain in effect for now, despite a ruling Friday in Texas that said that its individual coverage mandate is unconstitutional and that the rest of the law therefore cannot stand. It's too soon to say what the ruling will mean for the fate of the law since it is expected to face appeal and likely end up before the Supreme Court.
That has left Republicans in Congress, who very much want to make broad legislative changes to the Affordable Care Act, in wait-and-see mode over whether they will be forced into yet another fight over health care as a result of the current legal battle. Lawmakers are also anxious about the potential political fallout of disrupting the health care law that polls show is popular with many Americans.
But while Republican congressional leaders appear to be arguing that at least for now this remains an issue for the courts to resolve, President Donald Trump has seized on the ruling to immediately turn attention to Congress.
Some GOP strategists argue that now the political dynamics of any health care policy could even be more favorable to the Republican Party with Democrats in control of the House.
"This ruling would have been terrible for Republicans if they still controlled the House, but because they don't, they have the opportunity to sit back and focus on message and really this has the potential to give Republicans second life on this issue," GOP strategist Ford O'Connell said.
Kavanaugh Saga's Potential Lasting Impact On The Nation
With one floor speech, Sen. Susan Collins decided the fate of a question consuming Capitol Hill, Washington and the country for the past three weeks — and barely 24 hours later, that question's answer was cemented when the Senate voted 50-48 to confirm Brett Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court.
Kavanaugh's confirmation process roiled the country and at times evoked the worst in partisanship and human nature. As Republican Sen. Jeff Flake put it as he called for the FBI review into sexual misconduct allegations against Kavanaugh, "This country is being ripped apart here."
But the turmoil wrought by the process, and the impact it has on Kavanaugh's reputation on the court, could endure.
Republicans hope the battle to confirm Kavanaugh will energize their base for the midterm elections.
Democrats were already fired up before the Kavanaugh confirmation process — "They're already jacked up to 10, it's personal for them," GOP strategist Ford O'Connell said. But the outrage over Kavanaugh has emboldened "complacent" Republicans, O'Connell said.
Kavanaugh Claims Give Vulnerable Democrats In Senate Cover To Oppose Him
The sexual-misconduct allegations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh may remove pressure that some Democratic senators faced to back his confirmation as a way of reassuring conservative voters in congressional elections just seven weeks away.
Since Kavanaugh was nominated to the high court by President Donald Trump, Democratic senators from states that Trump won in 2016 were locked in a dilemma. If they didn’t vote in favor of Kavanaugh’s confirmation, they would have appeared to be out of step with voters at home and risked losing re-election. Vote for him, and they would hand the president a bipartisan victory.
The allegation that Kavanaugh assaulted a woman while in high school, however, now gives those endangered Democrats an escape hatch. They can oppose the nominee without appearing to voters as if they are defying the president, strategists said. Kavanaugh has denied the assault allegation, calling it “completely false.”
November’s congressional elections will determine whether Republicans retain a majority not only in the Senate but in the House of Representatives as well. Democrats are currently favored to take the House, while becoming increasingly confident of adding the two Senate seats that would give them control of that chamber.
Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley said on Monday the committee would hold a public hearing with Kavanaugh and his accuser, Christine Blasey Ford, in a week.
Senate Republicans seemed to recognize the danger of appearing insensitive, said Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist.
Trump, too, offered some temperate remarks at the White House, stressing the importance of going “through a full process.”
O’Connell said a concerted stand against Kavanaugh could motivate Republican voters to go the polls.
Pro-Obamacare Groups: Supreme Court Nominee May Gut 2010 Law
Democrats say Americans’ access to Obamacare is at risk with the next Supreme Court justice, though some legal experts say they’re exaggerating the issue to try to defeat President Trump’s eventual nominee.
Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer and his troops don’t have the votes to stop Mr. Trump’s nominee, but they are eager to use the pick for political purposes, hoping to rally liberal voters ahead of November’s elections and perhaps make life uncomfortable for several centrist Republicans.
While abortion and the 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling have taken most of the focus, Democrats insist the next justice could play a deciding role in striking down the Affordable Care Act should another case reach the high court, even though the retiring Justice Anthony M. Kennedy had already voted to strike it down.
Protect Our Care, a pro-Obamacare coalition, released a TV ad on Monday driving home that message.
But Justice Kennedy wasn’t part of the 2012 case majority — the key swing vote in the 2012 Obamacare case was Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr., who sided with the court’s four Democratic-appointed members.
Legal experts doubted a new justice will change that.
Mr. Schumer says Democrats can’t take any chances. The specific question around severability at this juncture in Obamacare’s history hasn’t been tested — so in his view, the chief justice’s ultimate position is as an open question.
His strategy is also just Politics 101 — much as immigration is animating the GOP base, Democrats are fired up over health care heading into November’s elections.
“He is, without question, trying to pull every lever to fire up the Democratic base ahead of the midterm,” said GOP strategist Ford O’Connell. “He’s also, interestingly, trying to turn the heat up on Collins and Murkowski — because if they bless the nominee, this is over.”
Kennedy Signals Exit, SCOTUS To Turn Right
Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy’s retirement announcement yesterday set the stage for a heated, highly divisive confirmation battle this fall — with Democrats pushing for hearings after the midterm elections and Republicans insisting they’ll take place before.
The 81-year-old Kennedy, who was appointed by Ronald Reagan and has served on the court for more than 30 years, is a conservative-leaning centrist jurist who was frequently the “swing” vote in 5-4 majorities on decisions regarding abortion, affirmative action, campaign finance and gay rights. He is retiring at the end of July, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said he intends to confirm Kennedy’s replacement, which could change the political makeup of the Senate, before November’s midterm elections.
Currently, Republicans hold a 51-49 majority and under a rule change that confirmed Justice Neil Gorsurch in 2017, can use a simple majority to approve new justices.
Democrats have called for any confirmation to be held after the midterm, with Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer citing Republican refusal to hold confirmation hearings on former President Barack Obama’s nominee Merrick Garland in the election year of 2016.
“This might be the biggest opportunity and moment of the Trump presidency — given the gridlock in Congress, the Supreme Court is the most influential branch of government on people’s everyday lives,” said Republican strategist Ford O’Connell, who also predicted fireworks at the confirmation hearing. “I expect it to be turned up to nine — the Republican goal will be to end it as quickly as possible and Democrats will try to air every grievance under the sun.”
Trump’s most recent list of 25 potential Supreme Court candidates released last November included former Waltham resident Thomas Hardiman, a U.S. Court of Appeals judge in Pennsylvania; Appellate Court judge Brett Kavanaugh of Maryland; and Utah Sen. Mike Lee. Trump also is considering several members of state Supreme Courts.
U.S. Supreme Court Mulls Trump's Travel Ban, But Decision Remains Unknown
The U.S. Supreme Court is weighing the fate of President Donald Trump's travel ban. But it remains unknown what the outcome will be.
Just six weeks after coming into office, Trump signed an executive order in March that would ban citizens of six Muslim-majority nations from entering the United States for a period of 90 days. The Trump administration says it needs the 90-day window to better ascertain the supposed terror threat coming from these nations. The countries in question are Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen - countries that were initially cited by the former Obama administration as "countries of concern."
Critics of the ban call it unconstitutional, while supporters say the White House and Congress should be, by law, deciding national security policy, not the courts.
On Monday Trump's ban lost a battle in the 9th circuit court, and the executive order is now being weighed by the Supreme Court, which has the final say on whether Trump's ban is constitutional.
Some experts said that, based on history, there's a high likelihood that the lower court ruling will be overturned, and that the Supreme Court will rule in Trump's favor.
Republican strategist Ford O'Connell told Xinhua the Supreme Court's decision will be very close, and will rest on the most moderate judge in the court, Anthony Kennedy.
"The question you have to ask yourself is, if this executive order went through under (former) President Obama...would it pass muster? A lot of people in the legal community think it might," O'Connell said, speaking of former President Barack Obama, a Democrat.
O'Connell said what's been frustrating for the Trump administration is that "they want to use all tools necessary to stop a threat that appears to be metastasizing around the world, and essentially what the Democrats are saying is 'well, we should just continue with our course of action.'"
Donald Trump: Stop Being PC, Boost Security
The latest U.K. terror attack, with the British prime minister decrying “too much tolerance of extremism in our country,” opens a small window for President Trump to build support for his travel moratorium from six mostly Muslim nations as the proposal heads for the Supreme Court.
“If he doesn’t strike when the iron’s hot, then nothing is going to wind up happening,” GOP strategist Ford O’Connell said.
“He’s getting some criticism for it, but he’s right to bring it up, because if he doesn’t, we’re just going to stick our heads in the sand.”
Trump brought his revised travel order, issued in March, to the fore Saturday night, tweeting as news of the U.K. attack unfolded that the U.S. needs to be “smart, vigilant and tough,” and that “We need the Travel Ban as an extra level of safety!”
O’Connell said Trump needs to sway prominent Republicans such as Lindsey Graham and John McCain.
Supreme Court Split Could Embolden Trump's Supporters — Or Help Clinton
Donald Trump has made himself the face of America's immigration debate and it could help or hurt him tremendously now that the Supreme Court has curbed President Obama's authority on the issue.
Thursday's split decision on the president's 2014 executive actions — to grant reprieve to millions of immigrants living in the U.S. illegally and expand the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program — could energize Republicans who remain wary of Trump, but aren't ready to forfeit the Supreme Court to Hillary Clinton.
Indeed, the Supreme Court vacancy, created by the sudden passing of conservative Justice Antonin Scalia in February, puts immigration and a host of other issues on the ballot. Clinton, who has previously vowed to expand the Obama administration's immigration policies, has also said she would decline to appoint any judge to the high court who does not support abortion.
"Immigration, particularly with what just happened in Britain, is a really big issue this election cycle and this decision gives Trump good reason to stay focused and on message," said veteran Republican strategist Ford O'Connell.
Read more from Gabby Morrongiello at the Washington Examiner
Supreme Court’s Split Deportation Ruling Gives Campaign Ammo To Trump, Clinton Camps
Hillary Clinton booed and Donald Trump cheered the news that a deadlocked Supreme Court put President Obama’s deportation amnesty on ice, deepening the divide in the presidential race over Supreme Court picks and the executive branch’s role in carving out immigration policy.
The 4-4 ruling served as a reminder of the vacancy on the court left by the death of Justice Antonin Scalia and the feud on Capitol Hill that has spilled onto the campaign trail over replacing him before the November elections.
Mrs. Clinton blamed the ruling not on the court but on Senate Republicans, who have refused to hold confirmation hearings and a vote on President Obama’s high court nominee, U.S. Appeals Court Judge Merrick Garland.
Mr. Trump has maintained that the vacancy left by Scalia’s death should be filled by Mr. Obama’s successor. Last month, he unveiled a list of 11 potential Supreme Court nominees in an attempt to assuage Republican concerns about his candidacy.
Ford O’Connell, a Republican Party strategist, said the ruling has provided the Clinton and Trump camps with talking points.
“For those that are nervous about Trump that are Republicans, it reinforces the importance of the Supreme Court because we know if Hillary wins, that ninth judge is going to be pro-immigration all that time,” Mr. O’Connell said.
“Simultaneously Hillary is probably happy that they came out with the split ruling because even though Hispanics are overwhelmingly on her side, she needs more to fire them up — particularly in states like Florida and Arizona — in order to keep Trump on his heels,” he said.
