Would Scott Walker Win Wisconsin In 2016?
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker won three gubernatorial elections in four years, a fact that he repeats often in his early stump speeches across the country. But some Wisconsinites note that such victories did not coincide with a presidential election, and they openly wonder whether Walker would win his home state.
Walker's recall election victory in 2012 happened on a separate ballot and date from the presidential election.
Wisconsin has not gone red in a presidential election since Ronald Reagan won re-election in 1984, and the state's governor may give the GOP its best chance of victory in 2016.
But Ford O'Connell, a Republican strategist and veteran of the 2008 McCain-Palin presidential campaign, said if any Republican is going to win the Badger State it would be Scott Walker.
Walker seems to be developing a path to victory that leads directly through the Midwest, but it still may not be enough.
"If he wants to win the nomination, he has to win Iowa," O'Connell said. "[But] he's going to have to find a way to take his midwestern blue-collar message and somehow resonate in the south. … Scott Walker needs to have a find a way beyond the Midwest to win."
Scott Walker 2016: Rock Star Or Villain?
Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin is unique among the Republican hordes running for president: He is deeply polarizing within his own state, and almost certainly the most polarizing governor in the country.
Most Wisconsin Republicans love him, even if his numbers have declined a bit lately, while most Democrats can’t stand him. And therein lies both the promise and the peril of Governor Walker’s presidential candidacy, which launches on Monday.
The question, though, is how Walker will be perceived on the national stage. Most voters don’t pay attention to Wisconsin politics, and the fact that he’s a divisive figure at home doesn’t automatically translate nationally.
Still, Walker starts his campaign with a deep reserve of goodwill among the key segments of the GOP, both in Wisconsin and nationally: the “establishment,” social conservatives (he’s the son of a Baptist preacher), tea party conservatives, and libertarians. Walker leads polls of Republicans in neighboring Iowa, averaging almost 18 percent in a field of 16 candidates, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average.
Walker “has to win Iowa,” says Republican strategist Ford O’Connell. “It all comes down to Iowa.”
Walker’s top competitors for the nomination are the two Floridians, former Gov. Jeb Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio. “His biggest problems are Bush’s money and Rubio’s compelling narrative,” says Mr. O’Connell.
Read more from Linda Feldmann at The Christian Science Monitor
Leading In Polls, Scott Walker Waits
Scott Walker edged closer to a White House bid this week, but his official entry into the race is still not expected until mid-July.
The Wisconsin governor’s slow-moving campaign launch could cause him to lose altitude, some observers say, since other top-tier candidates such as former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) are already in.
He is widely expected to join the race on July 13 in his native Wisconsin, the state where he has been governor since 2011. He won a recall battle in 2012 and reelection in 2014.
Some GOP strategists believe that Walker is being wily in holding off from a full declaration of candidacy for as long as he possibly can. Super-PACs are playing an increasingly important role in campaigns, they note, but coordination between an official candidate and a super-PAC is prohibited.
Some Republicans believe that Walker’s skills are being underestimated by a news media that don't recognize his blue-collar appeal.
“What Walker brings … is the white working-class voter,” GOP strategist Ford O’Connell said. “He has the ability to speak to them in a way that they gravitate toward. When he talks about shopping at Kohl’s, a lot of people in the media roll their eyes. But that resonates so well with voters.”
O’Connell also argued that more time away from the spotlight could assist Walker, in terms of letting him bone up on issues that he is less familiar with — notably foreign policy.
On Iran, Scott Walker Turns To Former Hostage
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker cites world leaders and foreign affairs experts as the source of his knowledge on several foreign policy issues. But on U.S. policy toward Iran, he frequently mentions his friend Kevin Hermening as crucial to his thinking. Hermening, a resident of Wausau, Wis., was a 20-year-old Marine taken prisoner in Iran in 1979 during the hostage crisis. He now operates a financial consulting firm.
Iran held 52 Americans, including Hermening, in captivity for 444 days. After he attempted to escape, Hermening spent 43 days in solitary confinement. He was the youngest American hostage, finally released after President Ronald Reagan took office.
Walker has been criticized for his lack of education on foreign policy. An article in Foreign Policy magazine recently said "misgivings about Walker's knowledge of the world go far beyond a few badly placed words" and that there is a "growing perception that when it comes to foreign policy, he's an empty chair."
Ford O'Connell, a GOP strategist who worked for the McCain-Palin campaign in 2008, said Walker has recently improved his message on foreign policy but has a long way to go.
"Unfortunately for Scott, what that means is this transformation does not occur overnight, it's really a time-intensive endeavor," O'Connell said. "And a lot of [presidential candidates] — not just Scott — are behind the clock, particularly the governors."
Walker runs the risk of becoming a "Johnny one-note," if he harps on his personal connection to Hermening too much, which could catch up to the governor in upcoming debates, said O'Connell.
O'Connell said Walker should follow Romney's example and study foreign policy for several hours each day to better prepare himself for the rigors of the campaign.
GOP Governors Shift States Rightward, Bidding For Primary Support
Republican governors with White House ambitions are enacting conservative policies in their states as they seek to appeal to GOP primary voters in 2016.
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal are moving aggressively to deepen their state’s conservative imprint on everything from social issues to education.
The trio of governors already had conservative records to run on, particularly on fiscal issues.
But they are finding that’s not enough to earn the trust of interest groups closely watching the primaries. They also are looking to distinguish themselves in a crowded Republican field.
“They’re all looking for a niche, that edge to help them stand out in a field that nobody seems able to break away from,” said Republican strategist Ford O’Connell. “Some of these issues could be winners, depending on how they’re framed, but they’re also walking a fine line in appealing to the GOP base without alienating the general public, should they win the nomination.”
Scott Walker Heads To Israel
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker heads to Israel for the first time this weekend, where he hopes to augment his foreign policy credentials in advance of formally launching his presidential campaign. The governor has become a conservative darling for his stances on domestic issues, but doesn't have a lot of international experience.
Touring Israel is very nearly a requirement for Republicans looking to compete in the presidential race, as many GOP primary voters believe the United States' relationship with Israel is critical. An unflattering GQ profile painted Ben Carson, a newly minted presidential candidate and retired neurosurgeon, as unable to grasp Israel's system of government. While waiting for his flight to Israel, Carson peppered his guide with questions about the Jewish state, before reportedly remarking, "It sounds complex; why don't they just adopt the system we have?"
Walker appears to have adopted a different approach designed at minimizing attention to his trip. The Walker campaign describes the trip as a "listening tour," and he does not seem to have scheduled any public appearances overseas. Walker told reporters in Milwaukee that he only plans to bring staff and advisers with him to the Middle East, and would not travel with donors.
Ford O'Connell, a GOP strategist and veteran of the McCain-Palin 2008 campaign, said Walker made the right choice to watch and listen. "Frankly, he doesn't know much about foreign policy and the best place to start, if you're going to understand the fine points of foreign policy, is starting with Israel and the Middle East," he said. "He's really starting at a lower rung than a lot of the others [on foreign policy]."
Republicans Expect Long, Expensive 2016 Presidential Battle
Senator Ted Cruz of Texas kicked off in recent days what is likely to be the longest, most expensive and perhaps most contentious Republican Party presidential battle in history
The Cruz announcement signals the beginning of an intense period of activity as other candidates prepare to jump into the race while others still pondering a run for the White House assess levels of support and their ability to raise funds.
Former Florida governor Jeb Bush is at or near the top of most polls among the Republican contenders. But Bush told voters in Georgia he’s aware he will have to overcome the doubts of conservative activists.
Republican strategist Ford O’Connell worked on the 2008 McCain-Palin campaign. He picked Bush, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and Florida Senator Marco Rubio as the top Republican contenders so far who will appeal to Republican primary voters.
“They are looking for three things," he said. "They want someone who can win the White House in 2016. They want a strong leader and they want someone who is going to do what they say they are going to do and not just sell campaign rhetoric to win the nomination.”
Bush is a favorite of the party’s establishment wing while Cruz wants to become the champion of Tea Party activists and social conservatives.
O’Connell said the various Republican contenders will be looking to appeal to various groups with the Republican Party who play key roles in the nominating process.
“It is a very complicated mosaic," he said. "We have four main types of voters. There are the moderate or establishment voters, which are about 40 to 45 percent of the party. We have what are known as grass roots conservatives or the media likes to call them Tea Party. They are about 20 to 25 percent of the party.
"We have social conservatives, which are about 18 to 20 percent of the party," O'Connell said. "They are strongly against abortion and they are strongly against gay marriage. And then we have this libertarian strain, which is about ten to 15 percent of the party and they just don’t like the government whatsoever.”
Jeb Bush Leads Republican Candidates, But Needs To Connect With Rank-And-File Party Voters
Jeb Bush topped other potential U.S. presidential candidates within the Republican Party (GOP) in a CNN/ORC poll released Wednesday, but he needs to broaden his base of supporters if he hopes to clinch the GOP nomination, experts said.
The former Florida governor led the poll on 2016 GOP presidential hopefuls, beating out former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, who dropped six points from last month. While the race for the White House is still more than one year away, candidates are gearing up for elections early.
While Bush is winning in the race for donors, endorsements and staffers, he needs to make gains with rank-and-file Republicans, Republican strategist Ford O'Connell told Xinhua in an interview.
"The establishment appears at this point to be consolidated behind him, but they are not sure whether his billion dollar balloon is going to bust," O'Connell said.
"Jeb has to find a way to make inroads beyond the establishment if he wants to win this nomination," he said.
Bush's biggest challenge right now is Walker, as the latter connects well with grassroots conservatives and working class voters, O'Connell said.
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker set to woo CPAC 2015
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker enters the unofficial start of the GOP presidential primary season at today’s Conservative Political Action Conference kickoff on a wave of momentum, leading polls and building support among the party’s establishment.
“The best way to understand CPAC is to think of it as the Super Bowl of conservative activism,” GOP strategist Ford O’Connell said. Walker, he said, is “the flavor of the moment.”
The annual meeting of conservative and libertarian activists is seen as the crucial coming-out party for Republican presidential candidates, where they introduce themselves to activists and commentators from the mainstream to the Tea Party wings of the GOP, and it is drawing nearly every potential candidate in the GOP’s still wide-open presidential field.
O’Connell said that while Walker is in a moment of popularity, he still has to show CPAC attendees gathering today and tomorrow just outside the nation’s capital that he can survive the scrutiny that comes with a full-blown presidential campaign. At CPAC, his goal should be to do no harm.
“I expect him to play it safe,” O’Connell said about Walker’s speech. “He’s better off basking in the cheers and not saying too much.”
Mitt Romney Retreat Gives Scott Walker A White House Advantage
Mitt Romney’s decision to sit out the next presidential race moves one of the GOP’s biggest anchors to the past, and the party’s fresh faced hopefuls are already scrambling to take advantage.
“People want new fresh leadership with big, bold, ideas, and the courage to act on them,” Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker said Sunday on ABC’s “This Week.” “And if we are going to take on a name from the past, which is likely be former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, I think, for the party, we need a name from the future.”
GOP analysts say the early shakeup could help Jeb Bush court some of Mr. Romney’s supporters from 2012, but say it also could make it tougher for Mr. Bush, whose famous family makes him the only remaining candidate with deep ties to the Republican Party’s past — a history many primary voters appear eager to forget.
“Outside of Bush it is going to be harder for old blood to break through,” said Ford O’Connell, a GOP strategist. “And even in Jeb’s case he has to be Jeb, not Bush. GOP voters are looking for something new to rally around particularly with Hillary waiting in the wings.”
