GOP Senators Turn Against Their Own In '16
Fearful of a third successive Democratic triumph, concerned Senate Republicans are turning against 2016 presidential bids by upstart hopefuls within their own ranks.
In forceful comments to The Hill, GOP senators made it plain that they would much prefer their party nominate a current or former governor over Sens. Ted Cruz (Texas), Marco Rubio (Fla.) or Rand Paul (Ky.).
Those senators have created a buzz among conservative activists, but their colleagues in the upper chamber are eager to support a nominee from outside Washington with a record of attracting independents and centrist Democrats.
They worry that Washington has become so toxic that it could poison the chances of any nominee from Congress in 2016.
And history suggests bids from the Senate face structural problems. Only 16 senators have gone on to become commander in chief, including President Obama, who defeated Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in 2008. So, it’s not surprising that officials in both parties have long preferred governors to sitting members of Congress. Yet, the emphasis is greater this time around on the GOP side.
Part of the reason is that the political stocks of Paul and Cruz, who have made enemies quickly in the GOP establishment, have risen as Christie’s has sunk.
Republicans say the bottom line is their pick for 2016 has to beat Hillary Clinton, who left the Senate to become Obama’s secretary of State.
Ford O’Connell, who worked on McCain’s 2008 campaign, said a governor can run against Washington as well as his party’s own establishment, an attractive possibility when the GOP’s brand fairs poorly with important electoral blocs, such as Hispanics.
“They recognize the key to winning is demonstrating to voters the value of governing competence over governing ideologically,” he said of Senate Republicans’ preference for nominating a governor who can “run on their own brand versus the party’s brand.”
He argued that the spate of attacks on Christie shows Democratic strategists are much more concerned about him than Paul, Cruz or Rubio.
Rand Paul’s 2016 Long Game
Rand Paul this week announced a class action lawsuit against President Obama to curb the NSA’s ability to gather domestic phone records, insisting such surveillance efforts should be “specific to the person, to the place and to the items.” But lurking behind the policy argument is a clear political motive as well: the Kentucky senator, who’s considering a bid for the GOP presidential nomination in 2016, has argued for years that his libertarianism is just what the party needs to attract a younger, more diverse base.
Paul’s lawsuit, which is backed by former Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli and tea party group Freedomworks, is the latest phase in Paul’s long running campaign against government spying.
But lately his political motives have been more visibily attached to the war on surveillance.
Paul has argued such crossover issues will attract voters not traditionally associated with the GOP. He’s made an effort to reach out to African Americans by criticizing mandatory sentencing laws. And he insists protesting government intrusion will win back the so-called Millennial voters – young people born after 1980 who backed Obama by large margins in 2012.
Paul’s efforts may even resonate with more traditional GOP base voters. Republican strategist Ford O’Connell told msnbc that Paul’s NSA attack would appeal to that group because it dovetails with conservatives’ general anxieties about government overreach under Obama.
“This is about not just getting to the general election and winning young voters, it’s also high on the mind of tea party folks and constitutional conservatives,” O’Connell said.
Is Paul Ryan Playing A Long Game?
Much to everyone’s surprise, the budget deal squeezed past both houses of Congress. But where does that leave Paul Ryan, the Republican who brokered the deal with Democrats?
Last summer, Ryan’s bona fides as a fiscal conservative landed him the vice-presidential spot on Mitt Romney’s ticket. Famous for his spending and entitlement-slashing budgets, Ryan was recruited to energize the conservative base of the GOP.
A year and a half later, with speculation already swirling about who the Republicans will field in the next presidential election, Ryan could find himself on the opposite side of the equation, having sacrificed his well earned reputation for fiscal conservatism on the altar of compromise.
The other top 2016 conservative contenders -- Senators Rand Paul, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz -- have spotted the chance to outflank Ryan on the inside. They have conspicuously refused to back the bipartisan budget agreement Ryan crafted and are poised to vote against it, leaving the Wisconsin congressman all alone on the budget issue.
“For Rubio, Paul and Cruz, this vote is about keeping the powder dry, pure and simple,” said Republican strategist Ford O’Connell. “They are going to have a few more tough votes most likely between now and 2016 and they just want to keep the powder dry.”
This is particularly true in Rubio’s case, O’Connell noted, because Rubio angered the conservative base when earlier this year he worked with Democrats on a comprehensive immigration reform bill.
“He is looking to make himself a problem solver on Capitol Hill,” O’Connell said. “He’s one of the few people, at least in the House, that can really take up that mantle because he’s trusted by both conservatives and members of the establishment in the party.”
Plagiarism Charges Test Paul’s 2016 Run
Sen. Rand Paul’s readiness for a presidential run in 2016 is being put to the test by the plagiarism charges swirling around him.
In an attempt to quiet the controversy, the Kentucky Republican’s office on Tuesday said the vetting process for his speeches would be changed so that “supporting facts and anecdotes” are clearly sourced.
But Paul’s handling of the controversy has raised broader questions about whether he’s ready for the intense media scrutiny that a run for the White House entails.
GOP strategists agree that plagiarism incident is nowhere near disqualifying for 2016, but cautioned it is just a preview of the pressure he’d face in 2016.
“He just got a taste of what the presidential primary campaign trail is like and the scrutiny that everything you do and say will be under,” said GOP strategist Ford O’Connell. “So he is going to have to tighten up how he does things.”
“If he allows this to fester, with his 2016 aspiration, it could become a roadblock. Right now it is just a bump in the road,” O’Connell said.
Read more from Mario Trujillo at The Hill
For Trio Of Rising Republican Stars In Senate, A Race To Define Themselves
Three Tea Party senators are angling for the White House — and could be one another's greatest obstacles to winning the GOP nomination.
Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Rand Paul (R-Ky.), three favorites of the conservative movement, have been quietly jostling for position over policy and stature within the party. Cruz has emerged as one of the foremost critics of the bipartisan immigration reform Rubio is pushing while Paul and Rubio have amassed strikingly similar voting records.
But Cruz’s emergence scrambles that duality, forcing Paul and Rubio to deal with him as well, rather than just choose to help each other when it’s convenient and disagree when it excites their base. “It was like NASCAR — Rand and Rubio were trying to draft behind each other and stay ahead of the pack, and Cruz used that time to raise his name ID with the base. The base just wants that pure candidate and you're going to have to convince them you're the guy,” said GOP strategist Ford O’Connell. “Three is a crowd in the Senate, particularly for what Rubio and Rand are trying to do.”
Just One Immigration Law Does Not Equal Outreach
Who, beyond a few of the hardest of hard liners, stands against immigration reform now?
Three years ago, Rand Paul wanted to deny birthright citizenship. Now, he supports comprehensive reform. Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Marco Rubio … everybody seriously on anyone's screen to be the Republican presidential nominee in 2016 has a plan or proposal of some type to fix our immigration system.
And it's broken, no question. Today, it is easier to come here illegally than legally. Border security is a mess. Extremely high-paying technology jobs go unfilled for lack of qualified applicants. Low-skilled jobs are similarly hard to fill in some areas.
The GOP Convention Doesn't Need A Ron Paul Sideshow
[G]iving [Ron] Paul a speaking spot during the convention is not the answer. Conventions are the last opportunity for parties to present uncontested views of their candidates. They are neither a circus requiring a Ron Paul sideshow nor Free Speech Alley at the local college. They are four-day infomercials designed to promote the candidacy of—in this case—Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan and the ideas on which they are running.
One can respect the passion of Paul's supporters, admire their focus on liberty and limited government and even acknowledge the support he has amassed over the years without wanting to see him muddle the message in Tampa.
He will get his moment in the sun. The delegate roll call will demonstrate the popularity of his ideas. His son's speech will reflect most of his views and signal a passing of the torch for his followers since Ron Paul is retiring from Congress after this year. The party will acknowledge his efforts in the primaries.
But more than 76 million people saw John McCain and Sarah Palin speak at the 2008 convention. And more than that may watch Romney and Ryan. This is their show.
This is their opportunity to make the case for themselves and against President Barack Obama. It is a fleeting moment in a long campaign, and there are no do-overs. Republicans must get it right the first time. And that means there is no way they can spend a day explaining away whatever Paul might say. There is simply too much on the line.
