U.S. Sen. Rand Paul To Throw His Hat Into 2016 Ring
U.S. Sen. Rand Paul is set to become the first heavy-hitter of the 2016 GOP primary with his announcement tomorrow — with a candidacy that threatens to pit the party’s libertarian wing against the traditionally more hawkish mainstream, now focused on Iran nuke talks and Islamic terrorism.
Paul is regarded as a top contender in a race where Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is the only declared candidate so far. A Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald poll of New Hampshire voters last month found Paul was the most popular Republican, with a 57 percent favorable rating, though he usually ranks third, fourth or fifth in Republican voter polls, and has been overshadowed recently by Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. Paul also needs to show he can raise big money, or he risks being outspent by former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, among others.
GOP strategist Ford O’Connell, who advised John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign, said Paul “could do well initially in the opening contests” because of the wide-open field and the “intensity of his libertarian followers.”
“But if Rand is unable to paint himself as a ‘reluctant warrior’ and is unable to get traction early in the nomination, he will be dead in the water,” O’Connell said. “A good deal of the Republican Party is what I would call ‘hawkish.’ Unlike in previous years, foreign policy and national security issues remain high on the voter-interest radar.”
Rand Paul In 2016: Embracing And Avoiding A Political Legacy
When Rand Paul enters the Republican presidential race Tuesday, he’ll start with an advantage few of his rivals have: A dedicated legion of supporters, well-organized and battle-tested.
But for the Kentucky senator to have a chance to win the nomination, he’ll have to expand beyond the libertarian army he inherited from his father, and fast.
So far, reviews are mixed, as he moves closer to the more hawkish Republican mainstream on defense and foreign policy, while still stressing his libertarian-leaning views against domestic security surveillance and drug sentencing laws.
Paul is regarded as a top contender, but usually is third, fourth or fifth in Republican voter polls. He should have some star power, but he has been overshadowed by upstart Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. Paul needs to show he can raise big money, or he risks being outspent by former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, among others.
To have a decent chance at the nomination, Paul must change the minds of Republican voters and donors who think he’s not strong enough on defense and foreign policy, argued Republican strategist Ford O’Connell.
O’Connell advised the 2008 presidential campaign of Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., a defense hawk who has feuded with Paul over national security issues. Paul needs to present himself as a “reluctant warrior,” O’Connell said.
Read more from David Lightman and Sean Cockerham at McClatchyDC
Christie’s 2016 Timetable ‘Wont Be Affected’ By Cruz, Rubio, Paul
As Chris Christie’s potential 2016 rivals bask in the national spotlight as they make – or plan to make – their presidential bids official, the New Jersey governor finds himself amid fireworks back home.
Like several of his town hall meetings this year, there was no mention of 2016 at his 133rd such event in Kenilworth on Tuesday and topics were local in nature – from new standardized testing in schools, to the state’s beleaguered pension system, to historical restoration, to the scrapped tunnel project between New York and New Jersey.
There were, however, a few tense moments – from a group of protesters yelling “Arrest Christie!” and a woman who told the governor, “I’m not here to be bullied” when asking about pensions and a controversial state settlement with ExxonMobile.
Meanwhile, the picture is very different for several other Republicans who have garnered a lot of national attention — and money – by either officially jumping into the race like Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, or making plans to within the next two weeks. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky is expected to announce his 2016 intentions on April 7 with Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida following suit on April 13.
Republican strategist Ford O’Connell, who advised Sen. John McCain during his 2008 presidential campaign, said Christie still “has to be getting antsy right now” with several other conservatives entering the 2016 fray, especially Rubio, who – like Christie – is considered one of the more moderate Republicans. O’Connell suggested that while Christie’s ability to raise money could be hurt by waiting, there are still some advantages.
Rand Paul's CPAC 2015 Win Cements Libertarian Leanings
Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul’s third straw poll win yesterday at the Conservative Political Action Conference reinforces that the annual gathering is misnamed — it’s a libertarian-leaning event, not one that accurately represents the Republican party as a whole, political analysts say.
“It’s had, for the last eight, nine years, much more of a libertarian bent than what most people perceive it to be — the Super Bowl of conservative gatherings,” said GOP strategist Ford O’Connell.
Paul won this year’s CPAC straw poll with 26 percent of the votes while Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker was a close second, receiving 21 percent of the votes. Paul also won the CPAC straw poll in 2014 and 2013.
The three-day CPAC conference was held in suburban Washington and drew a large crowd of college students. O’Connell said the strong libertarian representation is due in large part to the overwhelmingly young attendees — nearly half of the 3,000 attendees who voted were 25 or younger.
“It’s going to naturally have a libertarian break based on the percentage that was openly in favor of marijuana legalization,” he said. “When you’ve got that many students, that’s going to be the case.”
Rand Paul’s Risky Bet On Climate Change
Rand Paul is making a climate-change calculation that could cost him.
The Kentucky senator and would-be 2016 contender has bucked the GOP establishment on an array of issues ranging from national security to drug policy. And in recent months, Paul has started to build a record suggesting that he supports action to cut air pollution and believes that man-made greenhouse gas emissions are contributing to climate change.
That stance sets Paul apart from many Republican 2016 hopefuls who have publicly cast doubt on mankind's impact on climate change and duck the question of whether the U.S. should curb emissions.
It's also a strategic move. Calling for climate action could help Paul win credibility with young voters and Independents and ward off criticism from the left that Republicans stick their heads in the sand when it comes time to talk about a warming planet.
But affirming that human activity bears some responsibility for climate change and calling for pollution cuts could erode support for the senator in coal-rich Kentucky, where his Senate term ends in 2016. It also leaves Paul vulnerable to attack from a crowded GOP presidential field.
And Paul's comments on environmental regulation are exactly the kind of sound-bite that rival Republicans could use to attack the Kentucky senator during the primary.
"This is a packed field so we're going to see people using anything they can to discredit each other. I could see Cruz, Rubio and others playing Whac-a-Mole with this," said Ford O'Connell, a Republican strategist and former campaign advisor to John McCain. "There's very little upside to sticking your neck out so soon on this."
Vaccinations Are The New Political Wedge Issue
Vaccinations have become a political wedge issue and may have opened up a new front in the GOP culture wars.
The science of vaccinations is straightforward: Public health officials point to extensive research showing vaccines protect the common good. But the politics are far less clear, as comments from likely 2016 GOP hopefuls like New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and other Republicans have laid bare.
These politicians have a significant amount of public support on their side. According to a poll released last week by Pew Research Center, a substantial chunk of Americans — 30% — say parents should be able to decide whether or not to vaccinate their kids. Meanwhile, just 68% said the vaccinations of children should be required. The same poll found an ideological split, with 34% of Republicans and 33% of independents saying parents should be able to make the choice, versus 22% of Democrats.
Republican strategist Ford O’Connell suggested it’s an issue many Republicans hope will go away before the 2016 presidential contest gets fully underway.
“You have everything to lose and nothing to gain,” O’Connell. “You really don’t need to say much of anything until the campaign really begins unless it’s issues on the national conscious — like ISIS, energy or the economy. Outside those three, you’re better off saving your thoughts,” said O’Connell.
Countdown To Iowa: Ranking The Republican Presidential Field One Year Out
Mitt Romney’s exit on Friday from the 2016 GOP presidential field could be several other possible candidates’ gain.
The 2012 nominee’s decision spares Republicans a heavyweight fight between Romney and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush for donors and operatives.
But Romney’s departure also resonates further down the ladder, giving new life to candidates that had been stuck in the shadows.
Based on interviews with several GOP strategists, these are candidates ranked in the strongest positions to win the nomination with just a year to go until the Iowa caucuses on Feb. 1, 2016.
Jeb Bush
“The next key date for Bush will be July when his fundraising numbers come out,” said GOP strategist Ford O’Connell. “We’ll see how close he gets to his goal of raising $100 million.”
Is Pot The New Gay Marriage For The GOP?
Marijuana is shaping up to be the new gay marriage of GOP politics — most Republicans would rather not talk about it, except to punt to the states.
But when it comes to the 2016 presidential race, a series of legalization ballot initiatives — and a certain outspoken Kentucky senator — could make it harder for the Republican field to avoid the conversation.
When asked to articulate their positions on recreational marijuana, several potential GOP 2016 candidates have tried to strike a tricky balance: stress the downsides of pot use and the upsides of states’ rights. Some have indicated their openness to decriminalizing pot, at least in their state, but none favors outright legalization.
Strategists argue that Paul’s reluctance to embrace full legalization and insistence on warning about the dangers of marijuana use indicate he doesn’t want to anger a key segment of the GOP base.
“Part of the reason why Paul finds himself in this conundrum is the amount of older voters we have in the Republican primary,” said GOP strategist Ford O’Connell, noting that Paul’s libertarian-leaning foreign policy stances already have Republican voters over 50 eying him warily.
CAMPAIGN 2016: Rand Paul Steers Middle Course On Climate Change Amid White House Buzz
Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) appears to be preparing for a likely White House run by embracing issues that are not traditional conservative priorities -- including man-made climate change.
The libertarian joined 14 other GOP senators last week in voting for an amendment by Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) offered to the Keystone XL oil pipeline bill that declared that man-made emissions contribute to warming. But while many of the other Republicans who backed the language were either climate moderates or up for re-election in swing states in 2016 -- or both -- Paul is neither. He is defending his seat next year in deep-red Kentucky, where he can point to a solid history of anti-regulatory rhetoric and bids he led to kill U.S. EPA rules.
Paul declined requests to explain his vote on Hoeven's amendment, but political observers say he seems to be aiming beyond Kentucky.
Political analyst and Republican strategist Ford O'Connell said Republicans would stand firm on policy while trying not to let Democrats nail them down on climate science.
"What Republicans all agree on is that they don't want to see so many job-killing regulations and taxes, and they want to maintain flexibility so that they can come to a consensus [on science] behind the scenes without handcuffing the 2016 nominee," he said.
Rand Paul's Cuba Split Fuels GOP Skepticism
Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) again finds himself at odds with many in the GOP on foreign policy, after he came out in support of the Obama administration’s move to normalize relations with Cuba.
By fueling his isolationist image, Paul has set himself up for what will likely be a bruising battle on international issues with other GOP contenders in the primaries if he chooses to run for president.
A Paul spokesman hit back that the senator's position was intended to open relations with countries, and his detractors had political motivations.
Several Republican strategists say Paul is positioning himself to fight a battle over foreign policy that he can’t win in the Republican primaries if he runs for president.
“This is going to set him back with early [Republican] primary voters who believe in muscular foreign policy,” said GOP strategist Ford O’Connell. “It’s a systematic Rand Paul problem, and it’s what happens when he tries to morph his libertarian ideas into conservative philosophy.”
