David Brooks of The New York Times says President Obama "should be getting crushed right now" in presidential election polls. The Washington Post's Ezra Klein says the current read—that the election is about as close as it can get right now—is entirely to be expected.

Who is right? Both, in part.

Brooks reasons that, with the economy in the tank, three fourths of Americans dissatisfied with the direction of the country and key economic indicators refusing to move in the president's direction, support should be pouring into Republican challenger Mitt Romney's camp. Klein says Americans are realistic about President Obama's efforts—and opportunities—to fix the economy, and they're staying with him because they simply like him more.

The polls bear this out. The president enjoys a 29-point edge in "likeability," according to a May 8 Gallup survey. Even those who disagree with him and those who trust Romney more on the economy like Obama more. And, since 1980, every candidate who has had an edge in this category has won.

And the election is winnable. Incumbency is not the advantage it once was. Presidents seeking re-election have won just three times in six tries since 1976 and are just four-and-four going back to 1968—if you count Lyndon Johnson, who bowed out of the race when he knew he faced defeat.

But the time is now—before the Obama propaganda machine and its handmaidens in the media do more to cement the image of Romney as an aloof son of privilege utterly unconnected to the problems of "Real America."

Read more from Ford O'Connell at U.S. News & World Report

Mitt Romney is absolutely right to distance himself from this calamity in waiting.

If the high-risk, low-reward plan goes through and backfires, it could create sympathy for President Obama, which is the last thing Romney needs in a tight election battle.

What Romney desperately requires right now is not more fodder for the red meat eaters to consume, but a compelling personal narrative around which voters of all stripes can rally.

Read more from Ford O'Connell at Politico's "The Arena"

Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul effectively ended his White House bid on Monday, saying he would no longer campaign actively in states that have yet to hold primary elections.

Instead, Paul's campaign will concentrate on trying to add to its tally of delegates to the Republican National Convention in August by sending large groups of supporters to state conventions to elect themselves to delegate slots.

Paul is the last main challenger to presumptive nominee Mitt Romney in the race to pick a Republican candidate to confront President Barack Obama in the November 6 election.

Paul has not won any state nominating contests. So far, he has only 99 delegates while Romney has 949, according to Real Clear Politics. A candidate needs 1,144 to win the nomination.

Republican strategist Ford O'Connell said Paul's new plan will not change much in terms of campaigning since he was spending very little time on the campaign trail compared to candidates like Romney.

"Obviously he still wants to be a fly in the ointment, particularly for Romney, he just doesn't want to be running the negative ads," said O'Connell.

"Romney is in a very tight battle with President Obama," said O'Connell. "He needs to have all hands on deck to beat Obama and everything has to go right - he really does not need to be looking over his shoulder at Ron Paul."

Read more from Deborah Charles at Reuters

Mitt Romney could learn a lot from John Boehner about staying on message.

Unlike the Speaker, Romney has struggled to define his brand and convey a singular focus on the economy and jobs. Unless that changes, Republicans fear that the White House will stay in Democratic hands for four more years.

While the Romney campaign at times has become distracted by side issues, Boehner (R-Ohio) has relentlessly stuck to an economic message for most of the GOP’s 16 months in the House majority.

Republican legislators and strategists say that such single-mindedness is the key to taking back the White House, adding that Romney should take a page from the House Speaker’s playbook.

[S]trategists and lawmakers believe Romney needs to develop a brand as an economic Mr. Fix-It singularly focused on the nation's economic health — much as Boehner has done in the House.

"The biggest reason why Boehner is a good focal point for Romney is that Team Obama has a Ph.D. in message deception," Republican strategist Ford O'Connell said. "Boehner is someone who does not succumb to the temptation to go down those rabbit holes, even as people in his own party are causing trouble, and he doesn't lose his cool. He has a brand, and even people who don't know a lot about John Boehner know House Republicans are bent on the fiscal health of the country."

Staying on message is more difficult on a presidential campaign.

He must also better focus his attention, and, if necessary, muscle the conversation back to more favorable ground, according to GOP operatives. That tactic has been highly successful for Boehner, who remains a popular figure in his home state of Ohio, a crucial battleground in November.

"Everybody knows one thing about John Boehner, he's the Speaker of the House, and his quest is to be more fiscally conservative," O'Connell said. "He may run into some hurdles, like the payroll tax cut, but Boehner knows his job is to work to improve the economy and reduce the deficit, and Romney can look to that."

Read more from Justin Sink and Russell Brand at The Hill

The story of Romney leading a “prep school posse’’ to cut the student’s dyed blond locks in 1965 has sparked debate across the political world since the Washington Post first reported on it Thursday.

Romney has responded by saying that although he can’t remember the episode involving Lauber, he is sorry if he hurt anyone at Cranbrook, a prestigious prep school in Michigan.

Some political strategists said the incident could hurt Romney at a time when many voters are just beginning to learn about him, and the Obama campaign is working hard to define him as out of touch and insensitive.

The episode also emerged just after President Obama declared his support for gay marriage and the president’s campaign depicted Romney’s opposition to such unions as evidence of intolerance.

“The longer this drags on, the worse off it is for Mitt Romney,’’ said Ford O’Connell, a Republican political strategist who worked on the McCain-Palin campaign in 2008. “He cannot go down these rabbit holes right now because he has not yet fully defined himself for the American voter.’’

Romney’s response - that he can’t remember the episode, but is sorry for any harm he may have caused - “doesn’t make him look good, but it does get this over with quicker,’’ O’Connell said.

Dan Schnur, another Republican political strategist, also praised Romney’s handling of the episode.

Read more from Michael Levenson at The Boston Globe

When Mitt Romney stopped in Virginia last week he said, “This may well be the state [that] decides who the next president is.” 

At least he understands the stakes.

Barring a collapse by either Romney or President Obama, the popular vote will be close. Major polls are all within the margin of error and likely to stay that way.

But it’s not about the popular vote. It’s about the Electoral College – and there, President Obama has a decided advantage right now.

Almost all prognosticators agree the election is largely over in at least 35 states. The Wasington Post's Chris Cillizza says it’s largely decided in 43.

That’s what makes Virginia so important. If President Obama wins the Old Dominion again, it would mean he could lose Ohio or Florida – perhaps even both – and still win re-election. Romney’s opportunities to flip a state and make up ground – Michigan and Pennsylvania – are longer shots. He must have Virginia to win.

It won’t be easy because both sides expect to win yet know it will require tremendous resources to do so. 

Read more from Ford O'Connell and J.R. Hoeft At The Hill

Mourdock’s landslide win was a minor victory for the tea party, because Lugar was his own worst enemy and the job is far from complete.

It is not enough for the tea party to just primary incumbents; you have to deliver general election results. If Mourdock is victorious in November, in what is expected to be a tightly contested general election matchup with Donnelly, then last night’s result will likely be considered a watershed moment for the tea party in 2012.

Read more from Ford O'Connell at Politico's "The Arena"

Senator Richard Lugar, a 35-year Senate veteran and leading foreign policy voice, was soundly defeated in the Indiana Republican primary by a Tea Party-backed rival on Tuesday, jolting the American political establishment during a volatile election year.

Lugar, 80, was the first Senate incumbent ousted this year and his defeat showed that the anti-Washington, small government Tea Party movement is alive and well.

The veteran Senator lost to Indiana state Treasurer Richard Mourdock by more than 20 percentage points, according to preliminary results from the state election division.

"Lugar's defeat is a wake-up call from the Tea Party to the Republican establishment," said Ford O'Connell, a Republican strategist and chairman of CivicForum PAC, which endorsed Mourdock and contributed to his campaign. "It will make them think about how to proceed, not just in what they say but how they vote in the run-up to the (November) election."

Read more from Nick Carey and Eric Johnson at Reuters

It came at 11 p.m. Monday, in the 13th paragraph of an e-mail to supporters: Rick Santorum’s endorsement of Mitt Romney.

Former Senator Santorum, whose passionate advocacy for conservatism contrasted sharply with Mr. Romney’s more moderate persona, dropped out of the presidential race nearly a month ago, on April 10, ceding the Republican nomination to Romney.

“Above all else, we both agree that President Obama must be defeated,” Santorum wrote Monday. “The task will not be easy. It will require all hands on deck if our nominee is to be victorious. Governor Romney will be that nominee and he has my endorsement and support to win this, the most critical election of our lifetime.”

To sum up his message: At least Romney is better than Mr. Obama.

Santorum’s tepid nod to Romney “shows his reluctance to be fully on board,” says Terry Madonna, a political scientist at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, Pa. “It shows that he still harbors this concern that Romney isn’t a true conservative."

If Romney wants more out of Santorum, he’s going to have to deliver, says one Republican strategist.

“I think that Santorum knows that Romney’s going to need social conservatives, so right now [Santorum] is a valuable commodity,” says Ford O’Connell, chairman of Civic Forum PAC. What Santorum wants, he adds, is a prime-time speaking slot at the Republican convention in August.

Read more from Linda Feldmann at The Christian Science Monitor

When Newt Gingrich's campaign finally died last Wednesday, it took with it the hopes of Tea Party and other conservative groups to lift one of their own into the White House.

But it did not end their interest and involvement in the 2012 election cycle. It only shifted it.

[T]he Tea Party faces its own moment of truth this cycle. Its boisterous, headline-grabbing rallies are a thing of the past. Its poll numbers have slipped from a commanding high to even or worse. Those extremely opposed outnumber those extremely supportive of its agenda by big and growing numbers. Moreover, Republican leadership in the House openly defies its wishes, and Democrats have begun to think they can use Tea Party affiliation against their opponents.

[U]nless the Tea Party can deliver this cycle, unless it can push favored candidates to victory and be seen as having played key roles in those victories, its future may be limited indeed.

That's what makes this Tuesday so important. That's the day Indiana voters will go to the polls to choose between six-term U.S. Sen. Richard Lugar and his Republican primary opponent, state treasurer Richard Mourdock.

Fortunately for the Tea Party, it has picked a good place to make its stand. Lugar positions himself as a statesman willing to work across party lines at a time when sharp elbows and partisanship carry the day. He has angered conservatives with his votes for Supreme Court Justices Elena Kagan and Sonia Sotomayor. He has an F rating from the National Rifle Association, a tepid 75from the American Conservative Union, and a 73—two points below the disappointing Republican average—in the more economically focused Heritage Action for America ratings.

Read more from Ford O'Connell at U.S. News & World Report