New Poll Has Bad News For Trump. Voters Think The Economy Is Getting Worse
President Trump's strongest case for reelection is arguably the economy — he says so himself. But that argument might be slipping with voters, according to the latest Quinnipiac University poll.
For the first time since Mr. Trump won the presidency in 2016, more registered voters say the country's economy is getting worse than say it's getting better. Voters still think the economy is good, but of those polled, 37% say the economy is getting worse, compared with 31% who say it's getting better and 30% who say it's staying the same. Just two months earlier in June, 23% of voters Quinnipiac surveyed said the economy was getting worse.
"As trade tensions with China dominate the headlines, confidence in the economy is slipping," Quinnipiac University Polling analyst Mary Snow said in a statement. "The number of people who think the economy is getting worse rose by double digits since June. And roughly four in 10 voters blame the President's policies, saying they are hurting the economy, the highest level since Trump took office."
The president typically lists economic gains as his top accomplishment, and the state of the economy is highlighted frequently in administration and campaign talking points. But if voters don't see the world the same way, that message could be undermined.
If there is no recession, and voters continue to think the economy is good, even if people think the economy is heading in the wrong direction, that's probably good enough for the president's prospects, said GOP strategist Ford O'Connell.
"Since FDR, every incumbent president who has avoided a recession has been reelected," O'Connell told CBS News.
Democrats, O'Connell said, are going "full-court press" to convince voters that the economy is heading for a recession. The White House and Trump campaign will continue emphasizing the message that the economy is strong — and would worsen exponentially under a Democrat, O'Connell said.
What Trump's Final Rally Schedule Says About The Midterms
President Trump is hitting the campaign trail at a breakneck pace ahead of Tuesday. But as Republicans fight to keep the House, the president's rallies appear to be focused on the Senate map, gubernatorial races, and districts that aren't particularly competitive.
The president is holding 11 rallies in eight states in the final week leading up to the election — in Montana, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, Tennessee, Georgia and Florida — all states he won in 2016. In other words, he's generally staying in his comfort zone.
"First of all I think that this is a strategically smart use of Trump's time because he is going where he is popular," said GOP strategist Ford O'Connell, adding, "he is looking for that 2016 Trump voter in some places that were very good to him."
The president's campaign rally shows he's playing to his strengths, and looking to turn out the base, O'Connell suggested. The president's incessant messaging on immigration is a clear indicator of that, he said.
"Look, there is certainly an outside shot that Republicans hold the House by a sliver, but the more likely outcome is that Democrats are going to pick up 30 seats," O'Connell said, noting that in a midterm election, the party in control of the White House can be expected to lose at least two dozen seats.
In public, the president has projected optimism about Republicans' chances to keep the House, but at the same time, he has couched that optimism by pointing out how many seats are in play in the House.
The president himself is focused on his own election success this midterm cycle. In Florida Wednesday night, even as he campaigned for Republican gubernatorial candidate Ron DeSantis and other Republicans, the president said 2016 was still the most important election. Mr. Trump's final rally schedule also "absolutely" suggests he has an eye on 2020, O'Connell said.
"A lot of these line up with presidential battleground states," he said.
Kavanaugh Saga's Potential Lasting Impact On The Nation
With one floor speech, Sen. Susan Collins decided the fate of a question consuming Capitol Hill, Washington and the country for the past three weeks — and barely 24 hours later, that question's answer was cemented when the Senate voted 50-48 to confirm Brett Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court.
Kavanaugh's confirmation process roiled the country and at times evoked the worst in partisanship and human nature. As Republican Sen. Jeff Flake put it as he called for the FBI review into sexual misconduct allegations against Kavanaugh, "This country is being ripped apart here."
But the turmoil wrought by the process, and the impact it has on Kavanaugh's reputation on the court, could endure.
Republicans hope the battle to confirm Kavanaugh will energize their base for the midterm elections.
Democrats were already fired up before the Kavanaugh confirmation process — "They're already jacked up to 10, it's personal for them," GOP strategist Ford O'Connell said. But the outrage over Kavanaugh has emboldened "complacent" Republicans, O'Connell said.
Is Fiscal Conservatism Dead?
"The priority is spending," the energetic and newly minted congressman, sporting an American flag pin on his dark suit jacket, told the C-SPAN host, soon adding, "the size of the government is really what it comes down to."
The year was 2010, and the congressman-elect was Mick Mulvaney, then a 43-year-old restaurateur and developer who rode the tea party wave during President Obama's first term to defeat 14-term incumbent Democrat John Spratt and be the first Republican to represent South Carolina's 5th Congressional District since 1883.
Fast forward to 2017. The national debt has surpassed $20 trillion. The country's budget has seen nothing but deficits for the last two decades. Spending has only gone up, even under a GOP-run Congress. And arguably, Republicans — who control the White House, Senate, and House — don't seem terribly concerned.
GOP strategist Ford O'Connell agreed with much of Corker's assessment, adding that the "realities of governing don't always comport with principle."
"Especially in Bush's case, and in Trump's case and even in Obama's case, to a great extent, when you have slim majorities in one or both chambers of Congress," O'Connell said. "And you realize that there is principle but you have to show that you can govern, and if you can't govern, well you're going to go back to screaming to the wall and talking about principle. It's a vicious cycle of what happens when you're in and out of power."
During the most recent Bush administration, Republicans often gave less of a priority to reducing the budget than Democrats, O'Connell pointed out. For instance, in 2007, Pew found Republicans were less likely than Democrats (42 percent to 57 percent) to say reducing the budget deficit should be a top priority for Congress. But shortly after Obama took office and into 2016, Republicans in Pew polls were more likely to say reducing the deficit is a top priority than Democrats or independents.
The GOP faced the same obstacle when it tried — repeatedly and unsuccessfully — to repeal Obamacare, which expanded Medicaid eligibility to millions more Americans.
"The problem is once you give someone or a group of people a benefit, it is very very hard if not impossible to take away said benefit," O'Connell said. "That's the reason why we have this issue."
What's Behind The Ted Cruz-Marco Rubio Immigration Fight
The immigration debate between Sens. Marco Rubio of Florida and Ted Cruz of Texas has touched off a full-blown war of words on the campaign trail.
"Immigration is an issue which is near and dear to the heart of most of the Republican electorate and what Cruz and Rubio realize is they've got to knock each other off for the potential to face Trump," said GOP strategist Ford O'Connell, who is not affiliated with any of the 2016 candidates.
The battle lines have been drawn.
"What Cruz wants to do is to slime Rubio as an establishment RINO before Rubio can gain any momentum in New Hampshire." ("RINO" stands for "Republican in name only, a contemptuous term the most conservative Republicans use to describe their more moderate counterparts.)
Cruz's weapon of choice is what conservatives refer to as "amnesty," a path to citizenship.
"What Rubio's doing...by going after Cruz on this issue is to say, 'Wait a minute, you've portrayed yourself as a straight talker and you're lying through your teeth,'" O'Connell told CBS News.
Romney To Propose New Sanctions On Iran, New Help For Syrian Rebels
Republican nominee Mitt Romney will accuse President Obama of "passive" leadership in the Middle East in what aides are calling a major foreign-policy address Monday at Virginia Military Institute. "Hope is not a strategy," he will say, according to excerpts released in advance of the late-morning address.
Romney plans to call for more direct intervention in Syria, including making sure anti-government opposition forces have weapons. He also plans to criticize the Obama administration for its initial focus on an anti-Islamic video as the trigger for an attack that killed four Americans in Benghazi, Libya, including U.S. ambassador Chris Stevens.
The renewed focus on foreign policy comes after several weeks of unrest in the Middle East resulting in widespread protests, attacks on multiple American embassies, and the deadly attacks in Benghzai. Romney plans to call the recent attacks "expressions of a larger struggle that is playing out across the broader Middle East" and argue for changing course in the region.
The VMI speech gives Romney an opportunity to make "voters comfortable with Romney as commander in chief," said Republican strategist and former McCain adviser Ford O'Connell. He pointed to a recent Gallup poll that shows Mr. Obama with higher foreign policy approval ratings than Romney and said the goal of the speech is also to "close that gap a little bit."
