Swing-State Votes Worse Off Today Than In 2008

The 2012 battle for the White House will likely be a "base" election. Still the chart below should worry President Obama, because it means that his chances for winning re-election rely on his campaign's ability to make the case to swing-state independents that he deserves four more years. From Jeffrey M. Jones at Gallup:

Presidential candidate Ronald Reagan famously asked Americans, in a 1980 presidential debate, if they were better off than four years ago. Shortly thereafter, he decisively defeated incumbent Jimmy Carter in the presidential election.

The question is relevant again in 2012 as Barack Obama seeks a second term as president with the economy still struggling to recover from the 2008-2009 recession. The fact that the majority of voters in the crucial states that will decide the election believe they are not better off is a challenge for the Obama campaign. That includes 50% of independent voters in the swing states, in addition to 36% of Democrats and 84% of Republicans saying they are not better off.

Would you say you and your family are better off than you were four years ago, or not?

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published this page in In The News 2012-08-20 15:02:00 -0400
Analysis & Political Strategy