Donald Trump’s political fortunes are rising thanks to a surprise 11th-hour one-two punch — national polls are tightening with Hillary Clinton’s missteps while a key Wall Street indicator that has correctly predicted past elections is lining up in the billionaire’s favor.
The S&P 500 Index is down 3.6 percent since Aug. 8 — a trend that could signify a Trump victory next week, according to an analysis cited in a Bloomberg report. That’s because when there’s a gain in the index during the three months prior to the vote, the incumbent party — in this case, Democrats — have won 86 percent of the time since 1928. The pattern has rung true 100 percent of the time since 1984.
Other indicators also suggest Wall Street is bracing for a Trump presidency. The value of the peso in Mexico — where Trump wants to build a wall, billing that country for construction costs — has fallen 2.1 percent against the U.S. dollar, while the Vix index, known as Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” approached highs rivaling those following the UK’s successful Brexit vote, according to the Financial Times.
“A lot of these indices and signs point to a Trump victory,” said GOP strategist Ford O’Connell. “I think it’s a very different signal than what the mainstream media is sending. Everywhere you look, generally speaking, everyone in the media is pointing to Trump losing. … For a while, Wall Street was certain that Hillary Clinton was going to win. Now … they’re kind of holding the phones.”