Senate Shake-Up: WA, IL, NV & WV

Washington:  The FoxNews poll, using Rasmussen Reports PULSE technology, shows Republican Dino Rossi up a point on Patty Murray. Four straight samples have shown Rossi in the lead. However, an Elway Poll released this morning shows Patty Murray up by 15 (more to come on that shortly).

Illinois:  At the same time, Barack Obama’s old Senate seat now tilts a bit toward the Democrats.  Rasmussen Reports shows a swing from Kirk +4 to Giannoulias +1, giving Giannoulias his first lead in the RCP Average since April.  Again, this might be noise, or it might be the Democratic nature of the state finally asserting itself.  This race has been largely overlooked by analysts because Kirk’s lead has been as consistent as it has been small.  We’ll have to wait and see what happens in the closing days.

Nevada:  The polls are a bit all over the place here.  PPP weighed in with a poll showing Reid up 2, 47 to 45, while FoxNews/PULSE showed Angle up 2 points, 49 to 47.  The main difference between the two polls is how many respondents selected “None of these candidates” or “other.”  In other words, there are very few undecideds left in these polls.  Angle now leads by 0.6 in the RCP Average.

West Virginia:  Joe Manchin leads in the first poll of the race taken in almost a month.  PPP finds the Democratic governor leading John Raese 48 percent to 45 percent.  This may be statistical noise, or Raese may be feeling the weight of “hicky”-gate.

Read more from Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics

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